Trump vs. DeSantis

Politics & Elections
1

Is it more likely or less likely than usual that Trump’s supporters will fall into line and support DeSantis if DeSantis beats him for the GOP nomination?

One argument goes that Trump will fill his supporters with such vitriol and hatred for his opponent that no opponent could ever win them back in just a few months. But the other argument goes that they have no serious ideological or policy differences between them, and Trump’s supporters will overcome their animosity and vote overwhelmingly for DeSantis given the despicable Democrat running against him '24 (whoever that Democrat is, he or she will be despicable, of course)?

This question also works if Trump takes the nomination and DeSantis voters must support the GOP nominee: would that follow a different pattern than the scenario with Trump losing?

Or do you think either man is capable of running a campaign without demonizing his opponent?

2

I think if Trump runs for the GOP nomination, he wins. Even if he’s being prosecuted (that may even help him). I don’t think any Republican would be able to withstand his attacks on a national level. The party is still Trump’s party.

3

The way things are going, for Trump everything may hinge on some Republican getting elected in 2024. If Trump’s own prospects of getting reelected are looking questionable, I think self-preservation is the one thing that might win out over ego. There’s an obvious mutually beneficial path where Trump endorses DeSantis with the promise of a pardon. The most serious criminal investigations disappear, and Trump gets to enjoy the rest of his days as a hugely influential political figure without actually having to do any work.

Whereas a hotly contested nomination seems like a more risky path for Trump, and maybe increases the probability that a Democrat wins. But it’s quite possible that his ego will take him down this path. Maybe that’s what we should be hoping for. But honestly, as awful as DeSantis is, I don’t see him as an existential risk to the U.S. in the way that Trump is, and I think I’d be relieved if Trump steps aside voluntarily.

4

If Donald gets in, DeSantis will say that he had 2028 in mind all along. I wouldn’t be surprised if the RNC just cancels all their primaries and give him the nomination uncontested.

5

My guess is if they both run, it will rip the party in two. If DeSantis gets the nod, TFG’s fans will throw another tantrum (egged-on by TFG himself, of course) and try to violently stop the nomination process.

I dont see it getting to the point where TFG’s fans might have to vote for DeSantis in the general, but if that happens, they’ll fall in line, like normal.

6

Of course they will. Whats the alternative? Throw their support behind Biden? Laff.

I’ve posted before on this board that one of the biggest reasons that rank-and-file Republicans support Trump is because they were given no choice. Starting with Gingrich in the 90’s Republicans were told that being a Republican was literally the only acceptable way of being American. Think about Bush the Lesser’s “If you arent with us, you’re against us” philosophy that Glen Beck and Bill O’Reilly then took and ran with for years and how the word “patriot” now means little more than someone who embraces far-right idology and, more importantly for them, identity.

Because that’s what being a Republican is: an identity, like those those guys who wear nothing but clothing emblazoned with their favorite NFL team and only talk about football and plan their lives around the game schedule… that’s today’s Republicans. Its not about policy, obviously. It’s about identity.

To that end DeSantis embraces that identity with gusto. When Trump came along a lot of right-wing pundits laughed him off… until he started winning primaries. His biggest public supporters like Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson privately despise the man but, because Trump quickly became the de facto head of the party, they supported – and continue to support – him. Again, its about identy. His policies are immaterial; Fox et. al would / will support any and all “policies” Trump champions. That’s how this ridiculous and dangerous war on “CRT” started.

Fox spent 8 years fellating GWB because that was who the standard bearer for the party was and to support him and his policies was central to their identity. When Trump came along they started fellating him for the very same reason. There simpmy was no alternative.

If, God forbid, DeSantis wins the R nomination for president then it 1) be clear that Trump’s influence has waned enough that the base – who are the main voting bloc in the primaries – has switched their allegiance and 2) Fox and their fellow carnival barkers will have no choice but to get behind DeSantis and cheer him on with everything they’ve got. Because the only alternative would be to admit that hey, DeSantis is the fucking second coming of Hitler himself so maybe Biden isnt that bad. Does anyone really think thats going to happen. No.

When voting day arrives and your average R voter who openly supported Trump steps into the voting booth and sees the choice between Biden/Harris and DeSantis/Satan, they will vote for DeSantis because that’s what they’ve been programed to do. Think about the recent comments from John Bolton: he admitted that Trump is dangerous and incompetent but, should Trump run again, of course he, Bolton, would vote for him. What were his exact words? “What other choice would there be?” Something to that effect. The idea of voting for competent Democrat is absolutely a non-starter for these people. Being a Republican, voting for a Republican, is literally the only option they’ve been programmed to accept. Supporting whoever is on the Republican ticket part is a big, public, and enthusiastic part of their identity.

So yes, if it comes down to a Trump supporter forced to choose between DeSantis and Biden, of course they will vote for DeSantis.

7

I would. There’s too much division in the party for that response. It’s possible that certain individuals stay out because they know that their chances would diminish, but there would also be those who would see it as an opportunity.

And, if nothing else, the establishment surely gets that having Trump run negates Biden’s disapproval ratings. It’s not like people voted for Biden because they approved of him. They just were voting against Trump. And Trump has only lost support due to all of the other things that have happened. Trump lost before J6 and before his Supreme Court pics overturned Roe v. Wade. And he took the Senate and House down with him.

So there’s every reason to see people running against Trump.

Oh, and @Little_Nemo: the other option would be that they don’t vote. Trump radicalized the party and drove up voter turnout for the Republicans. Without him, it’s very likely that said turnout goes down.

And then there are the Republican women who could never vote for a Democrat, but are unhappy about Roe. A lot of women have that dirty little secret. Remember that abortion rates in the red states are about equal to those in blue states.

8

The other issue for someone like DeSantis with a credible chance in 2024 is that waiting until 2028 is much more risky with Trump that it would be with someone who could be expected to operate within fairly normal parameters. Who the hell knows what carnage Trump would cause in those 4 years? It could result in anything in a very wide range from a huge backlash against the Republican Party in 2028 to the end of Presidential term limits and/or fair elections and more Trump.

If DeSantis withdrew, he’d surely be hoping for the Democrat to win.

9

DeSantis, more than anyone, is probably hoping more than anyone that Trump goes to jail. The only way he wins the nomination is if Trump isn’t running against him. And if he can run in the general on, “I will pardon Trump day one,” he’ll probably win.

DeSantis loses if he goes head to head with Trump, and it won’t be close.

10

It really needs to be “I will pardon Trump one day.” The only thing that he’d have to keep Loser Donald in check is the promise of a pardon. As soon as Trump gets that pardon, he’ll be out there shouting about how bad DeSantis is doing, and that not nominating Trump was the biggest mistake those RINOs ever made.

DeSantis needs to keep that pardon dangling over his head for as long as possible.

11

Or dies. The glee among Republicans if he dies would be palpable; not only would they be rid of a menace they can’t control, but you just know that there is going to be a cottage industry of conspiracy theorists surrounding his death that they will get to wink and nod at, thereby continuing to appease the cult.
…
I’ve mentioned before, but my boss is running for Congress here in Florida - the GOP primary (which will decide the winner in this gerrymandered district) is tomorrow. He’s been billing himself as a “Trump Republican”, but privately has told me that he intends to “pivot to Ron DeSantis” if he makes it to the general (he has DeSantis connections).

When I suggested that Trump/DeSantis will be a schism in the party, he said we’ll see if Trump actually runs (he mentioned waiting to see what Georgia does). There’s a sense, I think (I only have sporadic conversations- it’s not like they are filling me in), that the DeSantis camp figures that Trump is going to have enough legal problems that this issue might take care of itself.

12

I agree, but how long can DeSantis wait? If the Democrats were smart here, they’d find a way to get the two factions of the GOP to start fighting. Maybe run some ads (like they are doing for selected Republicans) in key states showing “how popular DeSantis has become, and how DeSantis is leading in the polls, and how rank-and-file Republicans are starting to rally around DeSantis as their best hope for victory in 2024, and how DeSantis is like Trump, without all the baggage,…” (you get what I am saying - get DeSantis all in TFG’s head so he’ll get all triggered and offended and start attacking DeSantis, now).

13

You misunderstand my point. It’s not that GOP voters would vote Democratic, it’s that a certain, significant number would opt not to vote at all for the guy whom their cult leader has been vilifying for the past six months (or vice versa). Personally, I think that number would be insignificant given the rampant hypocrisy among their kind.

14

I’m not sure I really buy this as the best plan for a President DeSantis. If there are ongoing criminal investigations or a trial of Trump, and he hasn’t yet got a promised pardon, that’s hardly going to sideline him or his rabid supporters. And it’s not as though DeSantis could ultimately renegue on the pardon and face the ire of so many Republican voters.

Once DeSantis is elected, and Trump is out of the picture as far the Presidency is concerned, I really see no political upside in failing to follow through with a promised pardon of Trump. DeSantis cannot change the fact that Trump will continue to be a loudmouthed influence in U.S. politics, leaving him in legal jeopardy or allowing him to stand trial does not minimize that.

15

Oh, he’ll absolutely promise a pardon. What I expect though, is that he’ll slow walk that pardon for as long as possible. How hard would it be for him to spin a narrative that “Those deepstate Democrats” are blocking the pardon? Trump supporters fell for that every other day during Trump’s reign. When that starts to wear thin, if that ever happens, “Oh, Noes! Those FBI Feebs are looking into more charges! We must delay the pardon until I know everything I need to pardon him for! Blanket pardons are illegal, that’s why the Dems are saying I’m going to give him one, because they want em to make a mistake!”

Trumpers are still waiting for that Awesome Healthcare Plan Trump promised them in 2016. They’ll fall for this for at least as long.

If DeSantis wins the primary over Trump, it’s a lock that Trump will play his “Election Fraud!” hit song again, and he won’t stop playing until DeSantis finds something that will make him stop. DeSantis will have a hard enough time with the Democrats in Congress, there’s no way he’ll want Trump riling up the Trumper members as well.

“Shut the fuck up or I’ll keep you in prison” is about the only thing I can imagine working on Trump. Commute Trump’s prison sentence to supervised release, but hold back an actual pardon until you’re sure Trump will stay quiet.

16

What happens after the election really isn’t the point.

There’s a certain type of Trump voter that isn’t really a Republican. They don’t care about policy or really anything except Trump. This type of voter may stay home in November of 2024 if Trump isn’t on the ballot. Unless…

Unless Trump is in jail and DeSantis is running on, “I will pardon Trump on day one.” That will get these folks to the polls.

17

No, I get what you’re saying but I don’t think it’ll be an issue. If DeSantis wins the nomination over Trump then Trump becomes a non-entity in the world of Republican politics. As I noted earlier the rank-and-file Republican voters will always get behind whoever the right-wing media bubble champions as their leader and if DeSantis wins then Trump will simply be forgotten about because he will no longer be of any use to the Republicans. It’s no secret that the reason Fox and the rest of the right-wing media so strongly supported Trump is because they wanted a Republican in office – any Republican. A Republican who would nominate conservative judges and sign Republican-passed legislation. When it became apparent that Trump would be the nominee they simply abandoned the more traditionally conservative candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio because they were no longer useful to the cause.

True but this is only effective if Trump is given a platform from which to play his song. If the media is ignoring him and he’s still banned from Twitter and Facebook, playing that song won’t do any good: nobody will be listening.

If DeSantis is the nominee then I’m certain Fox et. al. will ignore Trump completely while playing nothing but 24/7 DeSantis praise, and the cult will follow because that’s what they’re being told to do. I doubt very strongly they will sit out the election (although I would be thrilled to be proven wrong).

Frankly, DeSantis is just a smarter, more evil version of Trump. He hates the same people Trump’s base hates, he vilifies his political opponents in the same manner Trump does, uses the same dogwhistle phrases as Trump, so frankly I see no reason that Trump’s base won’t easily and quickly switch their allegiance to DeSantis. I know several people personally who would rather vote for DeSantis than Trump and, judging by various CNN and similar news article comments, there’s a lot of people out there with similar views.

18

You misunderstood what I wrote - I wasn’t questioning whether DeSantis would promise a pardon as a route to nomination, that’s a no brainer. I was questioning the political wisdom of a President DeSantis delaying the delivery of the promised pardon.

But so what? Once DeSantis is elected, why does he really care, it’s not as though anyone would expect him to cede the Presidency to Trump. Trump’s never going to stop being a loudmouth with a big influence on U.S. politics.

My contention is that delaying delivery of the promised pardon just keeps more attention on Trump. I see a newly elected President DeSantis’ best strategy as to follow through with the pardon, just portray Trump as the heroic President Emeritus, pay lip service to him as the great leader who started us down this path, keep his followers on board but minimize the amount of attention he gets. I don’t see delaying the pardon as a good plan at all. That just keeps Trump constantly in the news cycle.

19

The way for DeSantis to keep Trump in line is to give him the pardon, but let him know that DeSantis’ own personal Attorney General is all set to find new charges to nail Trump with if he steps out of line. There is not enough hours in the day for Garland to bring charges for every last crime committed by Trump when he was in office, so I’m sure DeSantis will have something to nail him with.

As to the OP I’m in the camp that says so long as Trump isn’t physically prevented from campaigning due to health or legal issues, he will either be the nominee or he will be the spoiler. Note it won’t just be that DeSantis is a bad person/candidate, it’s that DeSantis is a Democrat plant who stole the primary from Trump. The 2024 GOP convention will be a free for all that will make the 1968 Democratic convention look like a quilting bee.

20

But in this scenario, Trump lost the nomination to DeSantis. If there isn’t something Trump wants in play, he’ll be the one telling the cult what to do, and a not insignificant percentage of the cult will listen to him, instead of those RINOs. We’ve seen it happen already, there’s no reason to think it won’t keep happening.

There is no way in hell Trump will voluntarily go along with any plan to “minimize the amount of attention he gets”. He’ll accept the accolades of being the “Bestest President EVAR!” on Monday, and then pivot to “That RINO DeSantis stole the election from me!” on Tuesday with nary a hint of whiplash.