Would ex-President Trump run in 2024?

If so could he win the nomination? Even if he’s decisively defeated in 2020 no other Republican is going to have his level of support and his true believers will never desert him.

This presumes, of course, that he’s not in prison.

He didn’t want the job in 2016, he just ran as a publicity stunt that went horribly wrong. He hates the job and is dreadful at it. If he gets drubbed in 2020, he is not going to say “thank you, sir, may I have another?” Let’s not forget, he’s senile now and would be 5 years older in 2024.

But if he lost the last two remaining functioning brain cells that he has and ran in 2024, he would win the nomination easily. It would be the same formula as in 2016- he wins all the batshit votes while his opponents split the rational votes.

I dunno, he’d be pretty old.

And there are plenty NeverTrumpers lying low. If he loses 2020, he’s not coming back.

Modern day electoral politics doesn’t really have this feature. Carter wasn’t even mentioned in 1984 and George H. W. Bush was never mentioned in 1996. This isn’t 100 years ago, campaigns require at least 18 months of commitment and there’s lot of other things an ex president could be doing.

I have a feeling if he is booted in 2020 his son Don Jr will run.

Jr is a moron but one of those overly confident ones.

The orange doesn’t fall far from the tree.

He’ll be in jail.

The prosecutors are going to line up to take whacks at him on a hundred different charges. Surely one of them will stick.

It’s really doubtful. Jimmy Carter and George Bush I were both eligible to run for a second term but neither of them was seen as a viable candidate after losing their re-election attempt.

I disagree on almost all counts. I think Trump loves certain aspects of being president and doesn’t like others. He loves being head of state and the prestige and attention that comes from the office, and hates being head of government which involves all these people interrupting his golf game demanding he read boring reports.

Even without the presidency Trump would still need to be in the lime light. Just because he lost doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t keep tweeting, Demagoguing, claiming that he was the best president ever and that the people really want him to return. If he hasn’t been incarcerated or brought down by death or dementia there is no way that he would pass up a chance to get people talking about him again.

As for his chances, Trumps entire appeal is based on the idea that he always wins. A big loss in 2020 is not going to inspire confidence for a rematch with the same opponent 4 years later. Given the GOP’s current trends I’m sure that they could will probably nominate someone even worse. I’m thinking a full on unapologetic Christian Nationalist.

Former Vice President Mike Pence

Here’s one who isn’t.

In Trump’s delusional version of reality he could never have lost the election. He would run from jail.

His recent performances indicate that his dementia is growing. I have read that under this condition the brain reverts to memory in place of logic. Yesterday’s Rose Garden presser confirms that view.

I have a “vision” of the future where he won’t. He will be beaten so badly that his name will be mud. Rick Perry will command more respect. Trump would be afraid to run again.

Of course, this assumes Trump gets spanked. That’s not guaranteed. I think I now only believe polls that say what I don’t want to happen (probably a 2016 overreaction). I want Biden to win, so I basically don’t believe polls showing he’s going to win, a stance hard to maintain with so many pro-Biden polls :slight_smile:

[quote="BobLibDem, post:2, topic:840373]
He didn’t want the job in 2016, he just ran as a publicity stunt that went horribly wrong. He hates the job[/quote]

I believe this to be true with every ounce of my being.

And there is no doubt in my mind that he is intentionally trying to lose in November.

But that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t try the same stunt twice.

I just wish my side of the aisle would learn this ultimate lesson about the absurdity of the primary system (especially open primaries) of picking a parties candidate. But they won’t.

He could run, but he wouldn’t get more than a tiny percentage in the primaries. The guy’s shine would have absolutely worn off with the Republicans by then, plus, he’d be old.

It seems to me that in 2016 the general GOP apparatus was not on board with Trump. Even up to the convention there was chatter about some scenario that could get rid of him as the candidate. After the convention there was more of a “OK, I guess he’s the guy (sigh)” attitude. The Never Trumpers and weak GOP support couldn’t find the magic formula to dump him.

Come 2020, assuming Biden wins, and the Dems make advances in the House, and possibly the Senate, and in state and local elections, the GOP establishment will be very energized by how toxic the Trump brand is. Consequently, he may want to run in 2024, but the GOP will make sure it doesn’t happen, in spite of his MAGA base.

I’m going to agree with Icarus’ first paragraph, and disagree with the second.

The GOP can’t stop him from running. Lord knows they didn’t want him 4 years ago, but they couldn’t stop him. I think the election in November will be close enough that Trump’s ego will DEMAND that he run again in 4 years. Trump will continue his campaign rallies all through the Biden presidency. During that time, the GOP leadership will have found a way to neuter Trump in the primaries. His MAGA base will win him some states, but the GOP will find a way to get someone - ANYONE - else in there.

Actually running would be too much work. But he loves the attention. I’m sure Trump will taunt and tease the press by claiming he’s “strongly considering” a run, right up until the campaign filing deadline. He may find a candidate naive enough to cast himself in a Trumpian mode, whose campaign he could latch onto and use to give himself a rally audience again.

I believe he wants to lose so he can claim perpetual victimhood and then milk the rubes via his own cable channel. I can see the ads now “Donate to the Investigate Hillary Fund!” He can spend the rest of his days yammering away on his own network and cashing checks. No way would he want to spend another term, consecutive or not.

If Biden beats Trump this year, by 2024 there won’t be any Republicans that will admit to knowing who he is. They’ll drop him faster than they dropped W.