Venezuela pulls out of Andean Community -- South American unification derailed?

In this thread – http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=329210 – I speculated about the projected merger of the Andean Community and MERCOSUR to form the South American Community of Nations, consciously modeled on the European Union, and the implications of a Latin American trade bloc, separate from and opposed to the U.S.-dominated NAFTA, forestalling the possibility of a hemisphere-wide Free Trade Area of the Americas.

But things aren’t going so smoothly. Venezuela just announced its intention to pull out of the Andean Community, on the grounds that Colombia and Peru recently cut their own trade deals with the U.S. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4925056.stm

A recent Miami Herald article – http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/14645316.htm – reports that a lot of Latin American leaders are on very bad terms with each other right now, over a lot of things, including things you would never imagine. “Bolivia wants to recover territories on the Pacific Ocean that it lost to Chile in a 19th century war.” Shades of Alsace-Lorraine!

What does all this mean for the near- and long-term future of Latin America, and for LA countries’ economic and political relations with the U.S.?

Nobody has an opinion?

A couple years ago there were lots of discussion on how the new, ideologically aligned, goverments in Latin America would bring a new era of cooperation, prosperity and ponies for everyone.

It didn´t last, as usual ideologes glasses obscured the clockwork of international relationships and now the situation can be technically descrived as a clusterfuck.
MERCOSUR leaders couldn´t sign Chavez into the treaty fast enough and interwinding trade and cultural asociations. Chavez daydreams of a united somewhat revolutionary America for some end or another while all over the place countries are bickering about cellulose plants, nationalized hydrocarbon reserves and ancient territory claims.
The MERCOSUR was launched as a trade asociation, nothing else, then goverments tried to go to a wider integration model and it backfired even before starting; now things are in shambles with Argentina and Brazil making deals between themselves without considering the smaller members and trying to block the signature of free trade agreements with other states.
For a country like Uruguay MERCOSUR has become a rock tied to the neck (while our own flip-flopping head of state Dr. Vazquez decided it was a good time to take a swim)

An remarkable example of the state of affairs is the Cellulose plant conflict between Argentina and Uruguay with Argentine president Kirchner refusing to take the mather for discussion into the MERCOSUR orbit and choosing instead to place a demand on the Hague international court. (after virtually endorsing an illegal blockade against Uruguay, so much for ideological affinity)

Do you see any way it could get better?

With the current leadership, hardly.
Vazquez goverment here in Uruguay has a foreign relationships blunder after the other, plus flip-flops between positions depending on who he´s talking to; with Chavez pounds the table and yields “free trade treaty with the USA?, nuts!”, then in Washington, “a FTT is within our aims”, rinse and repeat…

Kirchner wouldn´t mind starting a second Falklands if that would give him short term gains, the press is affraid of speaking against him and throws thinly veiled threats to its neighbours. He is a fine example of the worst of Argentine populist political class.

Lula is doing fairly well, must be wearing some teflon coated suits ´cause the corruption and smuth scandals in his goverment didn´t stick on him; the guy seems quite pragmatical and to be honest one of the few competent leaders around here.

Paraguay is quite out of the scope, which is probably a good thing, I can´t remember hearing about Nicanor Duarte in a good while.

Bachelet in Chile has just been elected a few months ago, as usual for a Chilean leader (since democracy returned at last) she seems to be pragmatic on her socialism, which is what is needed now in America, that´s point in favour; but what she does, or is able to do in the current continental climate remains to be seen; I predict Chile will keep going at it´s own pace without bothering too much with the way things are done the other side of the Andes.

In Bolivia things are hairy, with another populist ideologue that could make a big mess real quickly; for starters Evo Morales nationalized oil and gas fields, for the first one he went in with the army and media to seize it, it was a Petrobras field (oil state company of Brazil)… needless to say that didn´t look good from an American unification point of view. I could almost hear Lula´s teeth grinding from down here.

Peru is on the middle of an election, if Humala wins, well, that could get nasty too, nothing better to throw in the mix than a new nationalistic ideologue that makes Chavez look tame in comparision.

And then there´s Chavez how really doesn´t need presentation. He´s strong on American Unification under a re-cooked revolutionary ideal of some sort; Og help us all of South American revolutionary luminaries.
He´s using petro-dollars to throw candy at other goverments, and gain support for his political figure that can be described as: 1) Blame the USA, and 2) Act Pious. He´s looked as a great socialism paradigm by many which mostly don´t seem to grasp that it is sustented on riches not available to all other countries in the region.
I still cringe when I remember hearing him giving a speech over here where he said how the US wanted to kill him, and (not exact words but the conveyed meaning) that if he died we should remember who did it and march in arms against Bush; the worst thing were the cheering masses.

So… basically Brazil and Chile are the countries you can count on doing things rationally, but on their own merry way. Uruguay, I couldn´t tell, the clowns in charge doesn´t seem to have decided what to do yet; the president goes from white to black on the flick of a finger; on the up side they are not prone to do crazy things, they are just incompetent on foreign relationships.

To be honest, the idea of American Unification at this point is very remote, pragmatism and rationality is a secondary concern on large parts of the continent for that to be feasible.

:eek: That’s hyperbole, right?!

In this context, does “nationalistic” mean he’s for unification or against it?

Yes, but not much; right now he´s tearing MERCOSUR appart to score political points at home. There have been rumors of militar conflict with Uruguay if the dispute I linked on my first post keeps going as it is. If the Hague court decides against Argentina one of the measures Kirchner has at hand is blocking all traffic on the Uruguay river, that can get ugly.
In my opinion all out war is quite impossible, but I wouldn´t be surprised if the worst case scenario wouldn´t lead to a few border skirmishes.

Nationalism as in exaltated, chauvinistic patriotism.

He seems to be all for Pan-American unionism, of the right political flavour of course, which is the bottom of the whole problem actually; the same as Chavez, Morales and let´s throw Fidel in too. You can´t have a political affinity club made of democracies, leaders come and go and their ideologies with them.

That doesn’t stop the European Union from working.

For political affinity I refered to Chavez and Castro´s political concepts.

I never thought that latin America was much for unity-because the countries are so culturally different. take Bolivia-huge mineral wealth, small population (mostly uneducated indians), and bizarre nationalistioc government. Argentina: large potentailly wealthy country that has large out-migration (something is VERY wrong). Chile: small, successful capatilistic-but trades mostly with the outside (fruits vegetable for N. American market). Peru: messed up for years, local induistries are a shambles. Brazil: big and powerful, but has enough problems for itself. Venezuela: Chavez wants to be a world player. all he has is oil, and when it runs out, watch out.

Cultural differences among European countries are much vaster, but that didn’t stop the EU from forming. In LA, practically everybody is a Roman Catholic who speaks either Spanish or Portuguese. Even the Indians.

Cultural differences in America are not negligible; if you pick a random guy on the street here and ask to whom he feels more culturally related to, a random Bolivian or a random Italian, 90% of the time he´ll choose the second.
There are great differences even between regions of a same country, in Brazil you have rich guys flying around in private jets and stone age tribes. Don´t get me wrong, I think that cultural diversity is fantastic, it makes up for a colorful, lively mix; I´m just pointing out that America as a whole is not so homogeneous as it may seem from the common languages and colonial origins.

:confused: What does Uruguay have in common with Italy?

BTW, when you write a sentence like that, be sure to say Latin America!

[team america: world police]

CENTRAL AMERICA

1,500 MILES FROM THE REAL AMERICA

[/ta:wp]

As the joke goes, Mexicans decend from Aztecs, Peruvians decend from Incas, and Uruguayans decended from ships…
There are only very diluted traces of the original, native population unlike all other countries in Latin America. :wink:

By the way, since Amerigo Vespucci carthographed the coast of South America, and that was called after him, it is the original America. :wink:

Alberto Cortez, the famous protest argentinian singer, reported something similar for the Argentinians but he also mentioned that (Paraphrased):

"Argentinians are Italians that speak Spanish.
Want American salaries but want to live like the British.
Say speeches like the the French only to vote like a Senegalese.
Think like leftists but live like the bourgeois.
Love Canadian enterprise but have Bolivian efficiency.
Love Swiss order but practice Tunisian disorder.

We are a mystery."

In that post you cover every major SA country but Colombia. What do you think of the (currently right-wing) leadership there?

Recent The Nation article on Alvaro Uribe: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060612/parenti

I haven´t heard or read much about Colombia lately, so I don´t think I can comment much on it; however is very clear that Colombia and Venezuela are at odds politically, so that´s another negative point towards South American unification.