Remember Me?

 Straight Dope Message Board Remember Me?

#1
05-25-2009, 01:26 PM
 KlondikeGeoff Guest Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: High Sonoran Desert Posts: 3,068
How many US people born in 1927 still alive?

I've Googled all sorts of things on longevity, life expectancy, mortality rates, etc and still can't seem to find this.

Being born in that year, I'm curious as to what percentage of us are still on the right side of the sod.

Last edited by KlondikeGeoff; 05-25-2009 at 01:28 PM.
#2
05-25-2009, 01:38 PM
 Olentzero Guest Join Date: Mar 1999 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 7,601
I think you and I have broached this subject from a different angle, Geoff, but count my grandmother (born 1915) on your list, please.
#3
05-25-2009, 01:46 PM
 Olentzero Guest Join Date: Mar 1999 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 7,601
Sorry... thought you wrote *before* 1927! I don't know how exact an answer you're going to be able to get, but this population graph gives you a breakdown in five-year increments. 1927's crop of children falls in the 80-84 category, with 1.8 million men and 3.1 million women as of 2000.

The birth rate between 1925 and 1920 declined by 300,000 but I think for our purposes we could get away with assuming it held steady those five years, so we could say with relative certainty that 20% of the people between 80 and 84 were born in 1927. Apply that to the numbers above and we get 360,000 men and 620,000 women alive today who were born in that year.

IANAStatistician, obviously, but I'd love to see the methods put to work if anyone has the skills, inclination, and time.

Last edited by Olentzero; 05-25-2009 at 01:46 PM. Reason: proofreadin'
#4
05-25-2009, 02:03 PM
 hajario Charter Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Santa Barbara, California Posts: 15,080
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Olentzero The birth rate between 1925 and 1920 declined by 300,000 but I think for our purposes we could get away with assuming it held steady those five years, so we could say with relative certainty that 20% of the people between 80 and 84 were born in 1927. Apply that to the numbers above and we get 360,000 men and 620,000 women alive today who were born in that year.
That's probably a good estimate. Now, how many people were born in that year? If we get that figure, we'll know the percent.
#5
05-25-2009, 02:05 PM
 KlondikeGeoff Guest Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: High Sonoran Desert Posts: 3,068
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Olentzero IANAStatistician, obviously, but I'd love to see the methods put to work if anyone has the skills, inclination, and time.
You may not be a statistician, Olentzero, but you did an interesting analysis. Yipes, the women outlived us two-to-one.

I'm probably pretty dense here, but I don't see the number of males born that year, so is there any way to figure out what percentage that 360,000 is, over the number born?

Maybe I should try to go to the Census Bureau if they have a website, and investigate further.

That is small enough a number still alive that we should all get together and have a massive party, don't you think? We may even invite you.
#6
05-25-2009, 02:11 PM
 IvoryTowerDenizen "Superstar" Moderator Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: North Shore of LI Posts: 18,202
Mom 1926

Still living!
#7
05-25-2009, 02:23 PM
 Simplicio Guest Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Vermont Posts: 11,805
Quote:
 Originally Posted by IvoryTowerDenizen Mom 1926 Dad 1923 Still living!
This is going to be kinda a long thread if we count them all one-by-one.

According to actuarial life tables, if they died off at the same rate over their lifetimes as similarily aged folks in '05, ~57% of them would still be alive today. Of course, medicine has probably improved survival rates over the last few decades, but I suspect most of the improvement has been in the last decades of life, and the people in question would've only hit those advanced ages nearer to 2005, so I think it's at least a decent first estimate.

In anycase, I bet its still above 50%, so you can't brag about beating the odds yet
#8
05-25-2009, 04:04 PM
 Crescend Guest Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 494
According to the Statistical Abstract of the United States, the population in 2007 that was male and in the 75-84 age bracket was approximately 5.3 million. Projections for 2010 for the male/80-84 age bracket are roughly 2.3m (the sum of the 2010-projected male/75-79 and male/80-84 brackets is ~5.4m, due to new individuals entering the summed bracket from the bottom).

So definitely a bunch out there.
#9
05-25-2009, 04:15 PM
 Rigamarole Guest Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Riverside, CA Posts: 12,098
Well my grandfather, for one.
#10
05-25-2009, 05:01 PM
 Hugh Jass Guest Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Flavor Country Posts: 1,260
My mom was born in 1927 and is still going strong. So are her two closest friends, who she's known since 1st grade.
#11
05-25-2009, 05:17 PM
 ultrafilter Guest Join Date: May 2001 Location: In another castle Posts: 18,988
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Simplicio This is going to be kinda a long thread if we count them all one-by-one. According to actuarial life tables, if they died off at the same rate over their lifetimes as similarily aged folks in '05, ~57% of them would still be alive today. Of course, medicine has probably improved survival rates over the last few decades, but I suspect most of the improvement has been in the last decades of life, and the people in question would've only hit those advanced ages nearer to 2005, so I think it's at least a decent first estimate. In anycase, I bet its still above 50%, so you can't brag about beating the odds yet
Folks born in 1927 would've been 78 in 2005, which gives them about a 52% chance of survival. Were you looking at the entry for persons aged 76?

Assuming that mortality hasn't changed significantly in the last four years (which may be a little bit of a stretch, but let's run with it), the survivors are now 82, which puts them at about 40% of those born in 1927.
#12
05-25-2009, 05:23 PM
 kitemaker_chuck Guest Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Making Another Kite!! Posts: 536
I have two Aunts that are still living, who were born before 1927:

Aunt Virginia 1921
Aunt Frances 1923

Still living!!!
#13
05-25-2009, 05:30 PM
 Simplicio Guest Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Vermont Posts: 11,805
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ultrafilter Folks born in 1927 would've been 78 in 2005, which gives them about a 52% chance of survival. Were you looking at the entry for persons aged 76? Assuming that mortality hasn't changed significantly in the last four years (which may be a little bit of a stretch, but let's run with it), the survivors are now 82, which puts them at about 40% of those born in 1927.
Naw, I was looking at the female column which is 54%. Guys really start to get screwed with respect to their female counterparts after 65 now that childbirth has stopped killing them off at an early age.

Last edited by Simplicio; 05-25-2009 at 05:31 PM.
#14
05-25-2009, 06:23 PM
 ultrafilter Guest Join Date: May 2001 Location: In another castle Posts: 18,988
I was reading the male column there. Since the number of male births and female births during any given year is very close to equal, it's appropriate to just average the survival rates, which gives about 58% for persons aged 78 in 2005 and an estimated 47% for persons aged 82 in 2009.
#15
05-26-2009, 07:30 AM
 Olentzero Guest Join Date: Mar 1999 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 7,601
Quote:
 Originally Posted by hajario That's probably a good estimate. Now, how many people were born in that year? If we get that figure, we'll know the percent.
OK, let's play with the numbers some more! According to the second site I linked to, total live births in the US for the two years measured:
• 1925: 2,909,000
• 1930: 2,618,000
indicating a drop of 291,000 over the five-year period. Assuming (for argument's sake) an even rate of decline, that gives us 58,200 fewer births per year, so 1927 saw 2,792,600 live births in the United States.

Plug and chug.

Men: 360,000 / 2,792,600 = 12.9%
Women: 620,000 / 2,792,600 = 22.2%

QEF.

Last edited by Olentzero; 05-26-2009 at 07:32 AM. Reason: proofreading and stylistics
#16
05-26-2009, 09:24 AM
 Lurking Quahog Guest Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Rhode Island Posts: 141
My dad was born in 1927. Been smoking a pack of Winstons a day since he was 13.
#17
05-26-2009, 09:31 AM
 Giles Charter Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Newcastle NSW Posts: 12,821
The survival percentage rate is affected by migration, both immigration into the US and emigration out of the US. For most (if not all) age groups, the net migration rate would have immigration exceeding emigration, which means the survival percentage rate would be smaller.
#18
02-23-2012, 09:16 PM
 smoky Guest Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1
How much longer??

KlondikeGeoff;11175753]As I was born in 1925, I have spent much, dumb time looking gor the same answer. "How many still living". Be nice to have a graph of % surviving by age.

The best I came up with was a Mortality table. That is the table the insurance Comp(crooks) use to calculate the price of annuities. This table has folks living longer. For insurance they use a different table where people die earlier. Makes sence for the owners. The former table is more optimistic, obviously. I even tried Mathematica but
no luck. BTW, this is my 1st post, so I'm not sure this will even go anyware.
#19
02-23-2012, 09:31 PM
 colonial BANNED Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,709
Accroding to this cite as of 2010 there were about 7 billion people
in the world, of whom roughly 0.75% were 85 (born ~1925) or older.
That means about 52 million people in the world were 85 or older.

Now in 2012 two years later 60 million ought to be a fair estimate
for people 85 and older. I will let someone else try to pin down the
number born in the specific year 1927.
#20
02-23-2012, 10:49 PM
 Mahaloth Charter Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: 地球 Posts: 27,189
So what's with all the individual posts about people born in 1927 that are alive?
#21
02-24-2012, 04:18 AM
 panache45 Member Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: NE Ohio (the 'burbs) Posts: 39,331
Quote:
 Originally Posted by IvoryTowerDenizen Mom 1926 Dad 1923 Still living!
Mom 1913

#22
02-24-2012, 08:19 AM
 robert_columbia Guest Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 8,791
Quote:
I believe that Generalissimo Francisco Franco (1892) is also still dead.

Last edited by robert_columbia; 02-24-2012 at 08:19 AM.
#23
02-24-2012, 12:27 PM
 Gymnopithys Guest Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,197
Quote:
 Originally Posted by smoky KlondikeGeoff;11175753]As I was born in 1925
Welcome to the SD Seniors club, Smoky. You beat Geoff and me by two years.
#24
02-24-2012, 01:00 PM
 drachillix Guest Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: 192.168.0.1 Posts: 9,768
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Giles The survival percentage rate is affected by migration, both immigration into the US and emigration out of the US. For most (if not all) age groups, the net migration rate would have immigration exceeding emigration, which means the survival percentage rate would be smaller.
1927 folks also would have been 23-26 for korean war, plenty of shortened lifespans there, the vast majority of them male.
#25
02-24-2012, 01:14 PM
 TriPolar Guest Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: rhode island Posts: 37,222
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mahaloth So what's with all the individual posts about people born in 1927 that are alive?
How else are we going to count them?
#26
02-24-2012, 02:18 PM
 aceplace57 Guest Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: CentralArkansas Posts: 22,351
More than 1000 WWII vets were dying every day in 2008. My dad was born in 1927 and missed the war by a year. He went in the Navy in 48. He died last August.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,...+-+National%29

Last edited by aceplace57; 02-24-2012 at 02:18 PM.
#27
02-24-2012, 02:33 PM
 bup Guest Join Date: Sep 1999 Location: glenview,il,usa Posts: 11,905
The man who acted the role of father in my life was born in 1927 and is still doing great.

(He was in basic training in the navy and expecting to ship into the Pacific when Japan surrendered).

So, we're up to like 20, at least.

Last edited by bup; 02-24-2012 at 02:33 PM.
#28
02-26-2012, 07:33 PM
 choie Charter Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Like me it never sleeps. Posts: 4,585
I opened this thread out of curiosity 'cause my mom was born in 1927 but died from cancer in 1986, so she wasn't really a useful data point. (But a great mom nevertheless.) Then, when I saw the thread was a zombie to which the OP hasn't posted in a couple of years, I got worried about him.

Happily, his profile indicates he was logged in today. So, yay! He still fits the condition.

 Bookmarks

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is Off HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Main     About This Message Board     Comments on Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports     General Questions     Great Debates     Elections     Cafe Society     The Game Room     Thread Games     In My Humble Opinion (IMHO)     Mundane Pointless Stuff I Must Share (MPSIMS)     Marketplace     The BBQ Pit

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:42 PM.

 -- Straight Dope v3.7.3 -- Sultantheme's Responsive vB3-blue Contact Us - Straight Dope Homepage - Archive - Top