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  #1  
Old 05-25-2009, 01:26 PM
KlondikeGeoff KlondikeGeoff is offline
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How many US people born in 1927 still alive?

I've Googled all sorts of things on longevity, life expectancy, mortality rates, etc and still can't seem to find this.

Being born in that year, I'm curious as to what percentage of us are still on the right side of the sod.

Last edited by KlondikeGeoff; 05-25-2009 at 01:28 PM..
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  #2  
Old 05-25-2009, 01:38 PM
Olentzero Olentzero is offline
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I think you and I have broached this subject from a different angle, Geoff, but count my grandmother (born 1915) on your list, please.
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  #3  
Old 05-25-2009, 01:46 PM
Olentzero Olentzero is offline
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Sorry... thought you wrote *before* 1927! I don't know how exact an answer you're going to be able to get, but this population graph gives you a breakdown in five-year increments. 1927's crop of children falls in the 80-84 category, with 1.8 million men and 3.1 million women as of 2000.

The birth rate between 1925 and 1920 declined by 300,000 but I think for our purposes we could get away with assuming it held steady those five years, so we could say with relative certainty that 20% of the people between 80 and 84 were born in 1927. Apply that to the numbers above and we get 360,000 men and 620,000 women alive today who were born in that year.

IANAStatistician, obviously, but I'd love to see the methods put to work if anyone has the skills, inclination, and time.

Last edited by Olentzero; 05-25-2009 at 01:46 PM.. Reason: proofreadin'
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  #4  
Old 05-25-2009, 02:03 PM
hajario hajario is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Olentzero View Post
The birth rate between 1925 and 1920 declined by 300,000 but I think for our purposes we could get away with assuming it held steady those five years, so we could say with relative certainty that 20% of the people between 80 and 84 were born in 1927. Apply that to the numbers above and we get 360,000 men and 620,000 women alive today who were born in that year.
That's probably a good estimate. Now, how many people were born in that year? If we get that figure, we'll know the percent.
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  #5  
Old 05-25-2009, 02:05 PM
KlondikeGeoff KlondikeGeoff is offline
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Originally Posted by Olentzero View Post
IANAStatistician, obviously, but I'd love to see the methods put to work if anyone has the skills, inclination, and time.
You may not be a statistician, Olentzero, but you did an interesting analysis. Yipes, the women outlived us two-to-one.

I'm probably pretty dense here, but I don't see the number of males born that year, so is there any way to figure out what percentage that 360,000 is, over the number born?

Maybe I should try to go to the Census Bureau if they have a website, and investigate further.

That is small enough a number still alive that we should all get together and have a massive party, don't you think? We may even invite you.
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  #6  
Old 05-25-2009, 02:11 PM
IvoryTowerDenizen IvoryTowerDenizen is offline
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Mom 1926
Dad 1923

Still living!
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  #7  
Old 05-25-2009, 02:23 PM
Simplicio Simplicio is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IvoryTowerDenizen View Post
Mom 1926
Dad 1923

Still living!
This is going to be kinda a long thread if we count them all one-by-one.

According to actuarial life tables, if they died off at the same rate over their lifetimes as similarily aged folks in '05, ~57% of them would still be alive today. Of course, medicine has probably improved survival rates over the last few decades, but I suspect most of the improvement has been in the last decades of life, and the people in question would've only hit those advanced ages nearer to 2005, so I think it's at least a decent first estimate.

In anycase, I bet its still above 50%, so you can't brag about beating the odds yet
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  #8  
Old 05-25-2009, 04:04 PM
Crescend Crescend is offline
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According to the Statistical Abstract of the United States, the population in 2007 that was male and in the 75-84 age bracket was approximately 5.3 million. Projections for 2010 for the male/80-84 age bracket are roughly 2.3m (the sum of the 2010-projected male/75-79 and male/80-84 brackets is ~5.4m, due to new individuals entering the summed bracket from the bottom).

So definitely a bunch out there.
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  #9  
Old 05-25-2009, 04:15 PM
Rigamarole Rigamarole is offline
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Well my grandfather, for one.
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  #10  
Old 05-25-2009, 05:01 PM
Hugh Jass Hugh Jass is offline
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My mom was born in 1927 and is still going strong. So are her two closest friends, who she's known since 1st grade.
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  #11  
Old 05-25-2009, 05:17 PM
ultrafilter ultrafilter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicio View Post
This is going to be kinda a long thread if we count them all one-by-one.

According to actuarial life tables, if they died off at the same rate over their lifetimes as similarily aged folks in '05, ~57% of them would still be alive today. Of course, medicine has probably improved survival rates over the last few decades, but I suspect most of the improvement has been in the last decades of life, and the people in question would've only hit those advanced ages nearer to 2005, so I think it's at least a decent first estimate.

In anycase, I bet its still above 50%, so you can't brag about beating the odds yet
Folks born in 1927 would've been 78 in 2005, which gives them about a 52% chance of survival. Were you looking at the entry for persons aged 76?

Assuming that mortality hasn't changed significantly in the last four years (which may be a little bit of a stretch, but let's run with it), the survivors are now 82, which puts them at about 40% of those born in 1927.
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  #12  
Old 05-25-2009, 05:23 PM
kitemaker_chuck kitemaker_chuck is offline
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I have two Aunts that are still living, who were born before 1927:

Aunt Virginia 1921
Aunt Frances 1923


Still living!!!
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  #13  
Old 05-25-2009, 05:30 PM
Simplicio Simplicio is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultrafilter View Post
Folks born in 1927 would've been 78 in 2005, which gives them about a 52% chance of survival. Were you looking at the entry for persons aged 76?

Assuming that mortality hasn't changed significantly in the last four years (which may be a little bit of a stretch, but let's run with it), the survivors are now 82, which puts them at about 40% of those born in 1927.
Naw, I was looking at the female column which is 54%. Guys really start to get screwed with respect to their female counterparts after 65 now that childbirth has stopped killing them off at an early age.

Last edited by Simplicio; 05-25-2009 at 05:31 PM..
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  #14  
Old 05-25-2009, 06:23 PM
ultrafilter ultrafilter is offline
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I was reading the male column there. Since the number of male births and female births during any given year is very close to equal, it's appropriate to just average the survival rates, which gives about 58% for persons aged 78 in 2005 and an estimated 47% for persons aged 82 in 2009.
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  #15  
Old 05-26-2009, 07:30 AM
Olentzero Olentzero is offline
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Originally Posted by hajario View Post
That's probably a good estimate. Now, how many people were born in that year? If we get that figure, we'll know the percent.
OK, let's play with the numbers some more! According to the second site I linked to, total live births in the US for the two years measured:
  • 1925: 2,909,000
  • 1930: 2,618,000
indicating a drop of 291,000 over the five-year period. Assuming (for argument's sake) an even rate of decline, that gives us 58,200 fewer births per year, so 1927 saw 2,792,600 live births in the United States.

Plug and chug.

Men: 360,000 / 2,792,600 = 12.9%
Women: 620,000 / 2,792,600 = 22.2%

QEF.

Last edited by Olentzero; 05-26-2009 at 07:32 AM.. Reason: proofreading and stylistics
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  #16  
Old 05-26-2009, 09:24 AM
Lurking Quahog Lurking Quahog is offline
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My dad was born in 1927. Been smoking a pack of Winstons a day since he was 13.
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  #17  
Old 05-26-2009, 09:31 AM
Giles Giles is online now
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The survival percentage rate is affected by migration, both immigration into the US and emigration out of the US. For most (if not all) age groups, the net migration rate would have immigration exceeding emigration, which means the survival percentage rate would be smaller.
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  #18  
Old 02-23-2012, 09:16 PM
smoky smoky is offline
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How much longer??

KlondikeGeoff;11175753]As I was born in 1925, I have spent much, dumb time looking gor the same answer. "How many still living". Be nice to have a graph of % surviving by age.

The best I came up with was a Mortality table. That is the table the insurance Comp(crooks) use to calculate the price of annuities. This table has folks living longer. For insurance they use a different table where people die earlier. Makes sence for the owners. The former table is more optimistic, obviously. I even tried Mathematica but
no luck. BTW, this is my 1st post, so I'm not sure this will even go anyware.
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  #19  
Old 02-23-2012, 09:31 PM
colonial colonial is offline
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Accroding to this cite as of 2010 there were about 7 billion people
in the world, of whom roughly 0.75% were 85 (born ~1925) or older.
That means about 52 million people in the world were 85 or older.

Now in 2012 two years later 60 million ought to be a fair estimate
for people 85 and older. I will let someone else try to pin down the
number born in the specific year 1927.
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  #20  
Old 02-23-2012, 10:49 PM
Mahaloth Mahaloth is offline
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So what's with all the individual posts about people born in 1927 that are alive?
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  #21  
Old 02-24-2012, 04:18 AM
panache45 panache45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IvoryTowerDenizen View Post
Mom 1926
Dad 1923

Still living!
Mom 1913
Dad 1913

Still dead!
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  #22  
Old 02-24-2012, 08:19 AM
robert_columbia robert_columbia is offline
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Originally Posted by panache45 View Post
Mom 1913
Dad 1913

Still dead!
I believe that Generalissimo Francisco Franco (1892) is also still dead.

Last edited by robert_columbia; 02-24-2012 at 08:19 AM..
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  #23  
Old 02-24-2012, 12:27 PM
Gymnopithys Gymnopithys is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoky View Post
KlondikeGeoff;11175753]As I was born in 1925
Welcome to the SD Seniors club, Smoky. You beat Geoff and me by two years.
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  #24  
Old 02-24-2012, 01:00 PM
drachillix drachillix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giles View Post
The survival percentage rate is affected by migration, both immigration into the US and emigration out of the US. For most (if not all) age groups, the net migration rate would have immigration exceeding emigration, which means the survival percentage rate would be smaller.
1927 folks also would have been 23-26 for korean war, plenty of shortened lifespans there, the vast majority of them male.
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  #25  
Old 02-24-2012, 01:14 PM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
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Originally Posted by Mahaloth View Post
So what's with all the individual posts about people born in 1927 that are alive?
How else are we going to count them?
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  #26  
Old 02-24-2012, 02:18 PM
aceplace57 aceplace57 is offline
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More than 1000 WWII vets were dying every day in 2008. My dad was born in 1927 and missed the war by a year. He went in the Navy in 48. He died last August.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,...+-+National%29

Last edited by aceplace57; 02-24-2012 at 02:18 PM..
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  #27  
Old 02-24-2012, 02:33 PM
bup bup is online now
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The man who acted the role of father in my life was born in 1927 and is still doing great.

(He was in basic training in the navy and expecting to ship into the Pacific when Japan surrendered).

So, we're up to like 20, at least.

Last edited by bup; 02-24-2012 at 02:33 PM..
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  #28  
Old 02-26-2012, 07:33 PM
choie choie is offline
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I opened this thread out of curiosity 'cause my mom was born in 1927 but died from cancer in 1986, so she wasn't really a useful data point. (But a great mom nevertheless.) Then, when I saw the thread was a zombie to which the OP hasn't posted in a couple of years, I got worried about him.

Happily, his profile indicates he was logged in today. So, yay! He still fits the condition.
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