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#1
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Probability question about aircraft rivets
A student emailed me a question on homework this morning, and after working out the solution for myself and checking the answer in the back of the book and finding it different from mine, I am worried that I am missing something. I hope someone can confirm my suspicion that the book's answer is wrong. Here goes:
Quote:
P(seam needs rework) = P(>= 1 rivet is defective) = 1 - P(all rivets are fine) = 1 - (1 - p)^25. Then set 1 - (1 - p)^25 = 0.2 and solve for p. One obtains p = 0.00889. The book's answer is 0.06235. I should note that Googling this problem results in solutions that lead to my answer, and that the problem is from a well-known textbook for engineering students that is now in its 7th edition. I can't find any errata for the textbook, so I have no idea if the solution in the back of the book is just in error. |
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#2
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It appears to me that you did it correctly. The answer the book gives seems to be if 20% of the seams did NOT need reworking.
(1-0.06235)^25 = 0.20 = probability that all the rivets are fine if p=0.06235 |
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#3
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If you plug p = 0.06235 into your formula (which I think is correct), you get a result of 80% of seams needing reworking rather than 20%. I'm going to go for a simple error on the publisher's or author's part.
ETA: <Maxwell Smart> Missed it by that much! </Maxwell Smart> Last edited by MikeS; 10-15-2009 at 01:26 PM. |
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