I mean, serial killers are rare. Far too rare, I should think, to keep an FBI specialty squad busy, even one squad for the whole country.
It’s possible that there are any number of killers going around randomly killing people, all the time. However, some of them are good enough at it that there’s nothing to link the crimes well enough to indicate a serial killer, but probably most are stupid and or unstable enough that they get picked up by the police before they’re able to get to the “spree” stage.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an FBI group that specializes in researching and advising on cases with unstable criminals, but for the most part they’d just publish data or consult over the phone.
Well, the Criminal Minds TV Tropes page claims that the FBI estimates that at any given time, there are 20-50 active serial killers in the United States. Dunno where that number came from, of course.
ETA: It also points out that the fictional BAU has worked a lot of non-serial cases as well: arsons, rapes, kidnappings, stalkings, one-off murders that only looked weird/serial at first, etc.
What do you mean could? The FBI currently fields three BAU teams:
And like the BAU of the Criminal Minds world, they deal with more than just serial killers. They also investigate kidnappings, spree killers, terrorism and mysterious deaths.
Essentially, the BAU is the closest real-life analogue to CTU and The X-Files.
Except they never catch anybody.
Sometimes, profiles ARE (as Dio’s link says) "worse than useless.
An absurdly inaccurate profile of the Beltway Sniper (he was supposed to be a stereotypical Angry White Male loner) allowed John Muhammad and Lee Malvo to elude capture several times.
They also said the Unabomber would be uneducated - possibly a high school dropout. He was a Harvard educated mathematics professor. Profiling is about as useful as astrology.
Dude, move along, this is a thread about a TV show.
No it isn’t. Maybe you should read the thread title.
The thread is about “Could the BAU exist in real life?” I showed that it already does. You bitchin’ and moaning about profilers being glorified guessers doesn’t contribute anything constructive.
My answer is that it doesn’t actually function like it does it the TV show - i.e. it has never actually caught anybody. That is perfectly relevant information, since the TV show has them catching serial killers left and right. And your assertion that this thread is about the TV show is still incorrect.
ETA if someone asked whether law enforcement ever really used psychics like in the show, Medium, it would be perfectly valid to say that, yes, they’ve tried to use psychics, but that they’ve never been successful.
Oh Dio, where’s your Christmas spirit? The OP, in it’s entirety:
That is the only question. Could a special squad of FBI profilers and investigators known as BAU exist? I showed that YES it does exist and YES they do fly all over the country offering assistance to local police departments.
And if you had clicked the link I included, you would see that, just like the show, the BAU does more than just profile. They also do:
[ul]
[li]Crime analysis;[/li][li]Profiles of unknown offenders;[/li][li]Linkage analysis;[/li][li]Investigative suggestions;[/li][li]Threat assessment;[/li][li]Interview strategies;[/li][li]Media strategies;[/li][li]Search warrant affidavit assistance;[/li][li]Prosecution and trial strategies;[/li][li]Expert testimony;[/li][li]Critical incident analysis; and[/li][li]Geographic profiling (provided through an agreement with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives).[/li][/ul]
Does the show ratchet up the action considerable to a real life investigation? Sure, but that’s what TV does.
More importantly, the question was whether there were enough killers to keep such a group busy. Not catching the criminals, if anything, just means that there’s more work for them to do.
Did anyone else notice (from the Gaurdian story linked) the line that says that one of the main reasons that psycological profiling dosen’t ever end up catching anyone is that “…often, serial killers are unreliable interviewees.”
Who could have ever guessed such a thing…:rolleyes:
Personally, I think that’s probably one of the lesser reasons that they’d get things wrong. Psychologists can’t even predict what the average, sane human will do. If they could, they’d be making millions on the stock market.
Psychology is just out of the murky and insane jungle that Freud left it in, and it’s probably not going to go much further until we get a solid understanding of how the brain works – which will take another 50 years, most likely.
LADIES and GENTLEMEN!
The Straight Dope Message Board is proud to present: The Dio Show!!!
Surely profilers DO work. They probably make mistakes, though, since not everyone fits the profile. But if they never caught anyone, the police wouldn’t use them.
That doesn’t stand to reason.
- Try new technique of solving a problem.
- Compare the results of everyone who was using that technique to those who didn’t, to see if there was a real, positive difference.
- Make a decision as to whether to continue to use the technique.
If we’re still in the phase 1 period, then it’s entirely reasonable to use profiling in spite of having no idea whether it does or doesn’t work in any way.
Let’s also point out:
- The Forer Effect
- Illusory Correlation
- Confirmation Bias
- Experimenter’s Bias
- Escalation of Commitment
All of which can mean that it can be difficult to get something discredited (item #2) and even once it is, that doesn’t necessarily mean that people will pay attention to or act on that information (item 3).
Yeah, whatever. Because cops are so smart, and they do everything totally scientifically! :rolleyes:
Seriously, cops still use psychics. Profilers are no more reliable. BUT*, I always assumed Criminal Minds was complete BS; I am surprised to find there are real teams like this. Interesting! I will keep this in mind when I go on my serial killing spree.
*back on topic- hijack over, y’all!
Cite? Show me one case where profiling caught anybody.
They use psychics too, and psychics have never caught anyone. Police are not immune to woo beliefs, and they are often willing simply to try anything and everything even if they are skeptical.