Official 2011 NFL Football Thread - Preseason Edition

The Game Room
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Ladies and gentlemen, out long national nightmare is nearly over. The owners have approved the new proposed CBA and agreed on a revenue sharing deal for the next 10 years. If the players approve the deal over the weekend, and with only a 50% majority required analysts take that to be a foregone conclusion, we’ve got football uninterrupted for the next decade. There are no opt out clauses, no uncapped years and no reason to expect any issues for 10 full years. Huzzah!

I’m going to start a thread to discuss the CBA and all it’s particulars after this, so save your discussions of that for a bit. This thread is for us all to discuss the state of our teams. Discuss the impending free agency period. Discuss signings of current players, draft picks and generally break down the season forecasts for our favorite teams. Preseason games will be starting soon, though the Hall Of Fame Game between my Bears and the Saint Lousy Rams has been cancelled sadly, but every team will be playing 4 preseason games in about 3 weeks.

So, how’s your team look? Which free agents are you hoping they target? It’s prediction time. I’ll be back with an exhaustive Chicago Bears breakdown soon, I invite you all to start blathering away post haste. I’m sure you all have a lot of stuff bottled up.

*** Lets hope I haven’t jinxed it, but I couldn’t contain myself any longer. ***

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GREEN BAY PACKERS

Excuse me, I forgot.

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP, SUPER BOWL WINNING GREEN BAY PACKERS

There, that’s better.

Well, since the Packers won their record setting 13th NFL Championship last year by beating the Steelers in the Super Bowl and the Bears (on their own home field) in the NFC Championship game, they have a pretty good team. They’re also a young team, with only a couple players who may have a dropoff in play because of age (I’m looking at you Donald Driver and you Charles Woodson).

That said, not everything is rosy in Titletown. They’re likely to lose a couple important pieces to free agency and with the anticipated new salary cap, they’ll have to cut a couple good players and likely won’t sign any big ticket free agents (which is usual for our GM).

LOSSES

The biggest loss will likely be Cullen Jenkins, an extremely versatile and talented DE. He can play well as both a 4-3 DE and a 3-4 DE, and is very good at bringing pressure on the QB from anywhere on the line (he had only one less sack than Julius Peppers despite starting only half as many games). With his versatility and skill set, he’ll be of interest to a lot of teams, and will simply command more than Green Bay is willing to pay him. It’s a real shame, because he’s a great player at a position of need for the Packers, but he’s just too expensive. Maybe the Packers can empty enough cap room to sign him, but I’m not too sure they will. To replace him, they have some young guys with potential (Mike Neal looked good, so did CJ Wilson, but nowhere near as good as Cullen). They’ll also likely cut Johnny Jolly, another DE, whose inability to not be a complete fucking idiot will spell his departure. With Ryan Pickett getting up there in age, and Howard Green not having an offseason program to stop him from eating anything that moves, losing Jenkins will be even tougher on the Packers.

The Packers are also likely to cut ties with a couple of long time Packer favorites, Mike Tauscher and Nick Barnett. Again, to get under the salary cap and because of old age and injuries, both guys, who were vital to the Packers for a long time, will likely be available to other teams. Tauscher may be all but done because of injuries, but Barnett likely still has a few years left in the tank, and could succeed in either the 4-3 or the 3-4; although he is coming off an injury. The Packers have their replacements locked up already (Brian Bulaga at RT and AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop at ILB), so it won’t be too much of a hit, but damn it still hurts to see them leave. I’d love it if they took salary cap related pay cuts to stay, but I’m not sure that will happen.

The Packers only other significant loss I see coming is James Jones, their incredibly frustrating WR. Like Jenkins, I think he’ll find another team that is interested in paying him more than the Packers are willing to. He’s a fine WR … when he’s not dropping the ball. He runs good routes, he’s got the size and speed and strength, and he’s good after the catch, but anyone who has watched him play knows he’s prone to maddening drops at precisely the wrong times. I wouldn’t mind it if the Packers kept him, because he could be very good if he takes care of the drops, but they’ve got Jordy Nelson waiting and they drafted Randall Cobb, so losing him won’t be too horrible. There is hope because I think the free agent pool of WR is very good this year, so they may still be able to get him signed, but I’m not sure they will.

The Packers are also likely to cut Brandon Underwood, another idiot with legal problems, but he’s their dime CB and, with the continued development of Sam Shields, the studliness of Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, make it not a big loss at all. Brandon Jackson is likely a more troubling loss (he’s a good 3rd down back), but with the emergence of James Starks, the drafting of Alex Green, and the free agent pool, I don’t think he’ll be missed too much. But Ryan Grant better be healthy. They may also lose their starting LG, Darren Colledge, but I like the backups and flexibility that I don’t see that as a huge loss either. The one guy the Packers should sign is Mason Cosby, who, while a bit of a disappointment, is still a good kicker for the Packers.

GAINS

The Packers winning it all last year was especially amazing considering the amount of injuries they suffered during the year. There biggest gains coming up are going to be getting guys back from injuries. Their starting RB Ryan Grant, their starting young stud TE Jeremichael Finley, will be huge. But getting young talented guys like Brad Jones (ROLB), Morgan Burnett (SS), and Mike Neal (DE) back will be vital to their success also. The Packers need to have their younger players step up again this year, so having players healthy will be a huge addition.

Another gain is the players the Packers drafted. For the most part, I loved their draft. They (hopefully) got their young stud LT to replace Clifton in a year or two in Derrick Sherrod, a versatile playmaker in Randall Cobb, a third down back in Alex Green, a project CB with upside in Davon House, some interesting TE/special teams guys, and some developmental projects. The Packers are in an enviable position of not really needing these rookies to step up and contribute this year, but I was very happy with the additions they made in the draft. Hopefully they’ve also found some late round gems too.

One of the more fascinating parts of the Packers front office are their ability to find players from the undrafted free agent pool. Sam Shields and Frank Zombo were two players they got off the street last year who both played well enough to start for the Super Bowl Championship Packers during the season. This year, I have my eye on “My Guys” Derrick Locke, a tiny little shifty bug of a guy, Brandon Bair, a potential 3-4 DE, and Willie Smith, OT, because you can never have too many OT’s. But I trust Ted Thompson enough to find at least some value in the guys he picks up who went undrafted.

As to normal free agency, that’s just not one of the Packers things. They rarely go out and make a huge splash in free agency, and I don’t see that happening this year either. One thing I think works heavily in their favor though is that they’ve won their record setting 13th NFL Championship and are a young talented team, so they’re a great landing spot for those older NFL players looking to win a Super Bowl ring and willing to take a pay cut to get it. I don’t know who the Packers are targeting, but they should grab another DE, maybe a RB, but they’re not desperate for anything.

Wow, that is a long winded post. I guess I’ve been bottling up my Packer information too long. It will be fascinating though to see how the delayed, abbreviated free agency goes this year. I think a lot of teams will make poor decisions again this year.

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In keeping with tradition, I hereby pick the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl.

Loved the draft of Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. They needed a feature back, and Ingram should fit in nicely there. Other than Ingram, they went all defense, and rightly so. Hoping to see better run defense and more pass rush this year.

Dunno what free agents will be acquired, but the Saints may be active as soon as they’re allowed to start shopping.

Glancing at the schedule, I see games against the Colts, Giants, Titans and the entire NFC North . That’s pretty tough, but ought to produce some great games. We open at Green Bay, to start things off with a bang…

**GEAUX SAINTS! **

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Don’t get too excited yet. It seems like the owners may have overplayed their hand a bit. Until the players approve it I am not celebrating.

5

Looks like the NFL is good to go. The next two weeks will be fascinating. 5 months of regular offseason action condensed into a few days. With the expanded rosters and time deadlines, it should be very interesting indeed.

6

Oh boy oh boy oh boy! I’m so starved for real football news that the reports coming in about which UDFAs are signing where is exciting! I’m honestly excited about that! So excited, I went back to the NFL draft thread from this year and found Hamlet’s list of “His Guys” that went undrafted, and tracked them. Here’s how it’s gone down so far…

David Mims, OT, Virginia Union to the Chiefs
Derrick Locke, “mancrush”, Kentucky reportedly to the Rams (unconfirmed)
Mark Herzlich, LB, Boston Coll reportedly to the Ravens though he mentioned on his twitter he’s still undecided.
Still to go are Willie Smith, OT, E. Carolina and Brandon Bair, DE, Oregon. I wish I had a cool “My Guys” list to check up on.

And my pet from the combine, Joe Lefeged, whom I thought looked as bad as you possibly could without literally shitting yourself on the field went to the Colts. Can’t wait for him to get cut after the first practice.

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Since I likely won’t get another chance, I’ll run own what I think the Eagles will do this offseason and what I dream they would do, if wishes were fishes and I had a giant net.

The Eagles are in a truly enviable position. It’s a golden age of sorts, if its possible to have one without a Super Bowl victory. All of their prime offensive talent is young (with the exception of Vick, who has low mileage) and their defense is loaded with young promising players. Everyone important is signed through 2011, and their list of UFAs is a group of bench players and WhoDeys with little potential impact (with the exception of starter Quintin Mikell). There is no reason this team won’t be significantly better than last year, which was a dangerous team to begin with.

And unlike some other teams, the Eagles have a ton of cap room to play with. They’re going to get a lot better in a week.

Here’s what I think they do, from what I’m hearing. They’re going to trade Kevin Kolb, a move which I’m going to go ahead and say they’ll regret eventually, and it seems most likely it’ll be to Arizona for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a pick, probably a 3rd. They’re going to get hosed on this deal. DRC is an exceptional talent, and I remember watching a random game of his in his rookie season where I was certain he’d eventually be a Hall of Famer, but his 2010 was a disaster. And he’s exactly like Asante Samuel in that he can’t tackle. They won’t make for a very good tandem. This move is doubly problematic because it would take the Eagles out of the CB market and they would miss out on legitimate players like Asomugha.

People have said Asomugha doesn’t make sense because the Eagles are apparently transitioning into a Cover-2. Well, here’s my take. If you can shut off one side of the field (Asomugha’s) and force teams to throw to the side where arguably the best ball-hawking CB in the NFL is playing (Samuel), that’s pretty much guaranteed money. That’s worth any price, and the Eagles can afford Asomugha’s price.

I’d be willing to bet money the Eagles sign Ray Edwards from MIN. Come on, bet me. I’m cheating by the way, since he’s been rumored to have agreed to a deal with the Eagles and is apparently seeking real estate in Philly. He’s a younger Juqua Parker, and guess what, that’s a pretty shitty comparison. He’s got plenty of upside, but all I can remember about him is the last time I played Madden and his rating was a 60-something. He’s never had 10 sacks, and that was without having ever seen a double team opposite of Jared Allen. They’ll probably overpay and regret this decision too. But I’d rather have him at 26 years old than Jason Babin at 31, who may also be a flash in the pan.

I’m also guessing they pick up Plaxico Burress, a legit red zone threat.

My dream would be that the Eagles had agreed to a pre-draft swap for the Cardinals’ first rounder and trade Kolb for Patrick Peterson. Then sign sign Asomugha, Clinton Portis (a surprisingly good fit in the offense), Jacob Ford at DE (Charles Johnson lite), Plaxico, and pry Haynesworth away from DC. Yeah, he stomped a dude’s head and is generally a scumbag, but he’d probably single handedly guarantee two wins this season (@Was and vs. Was). Le sigh.

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The Eagles have also reportedly agreed to the following UDFAs:
RB Graig Cooper – Miami
TE Martell Webb – Michigan
WR Terrance Turner – Indiana
DT Cedric Thornton – Southern Arkansas

Of those, I’ve heard good things about Cooper and Thornton. Yay football!

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For you freaks (like me) who are way to into the even the most minor transactions, this site, has updated reports on reported undrafted free agent signings for all 32 teams. According to them, the Pack have, so far, signed 8 UDFA’s, including guys named Sampson Genus (can’t believe he didn’t make my “favorite named draft players”) and a KR/PR aptly namex Shaky. I’ll have to check out these guys (and the status of the “my guys”) when I get more time. I also noticed that my mancrush Derrick Locke has been removed from the Rams signee’s list, so he may be more sought after than I thought. I do think the Rams would be an excellent fit for him though.

Since veteran free agents can negotiate with teams now, but can’t sign until Friday, it will be interesting if any players or teams renege on their agreements when a betteroffer comes along later.

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I guess this is what I get for posting after midnight based on twitter updates. Locke went to Minnesota and herzlich to the Giants.

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There’s lots of optimism over the Lions. They’re getting national buzz and a lot of local folks thought that this would be the year they were waiting for for a long time, where they take a big step up, only to have it washed away by the lockout.

We need cornerbacks and linebackers. I’d also like a safety.

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Ah, yes, Shaky Smithson from Utah. I watched him destroy my Iowa State Cyclones last fall (well, he had plenty of help, but they couldn’t EVER tackle the guy). His name is indeed apt, he was a dandy college player. I have no idea how he might do in the NFL.

But the name is golden.

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I’d like to point out, before this starts to get repeated everywhere, that in a preseason where the lockout was over-reported and over-hyped, the free agency period will not end up as crazy as everyone thinks. It won’t be the “madness” that ESPN is teasing on the radio, or whatever hypoerbolic term is being tossed about to generate mania and frothing interest. Too many teams have too much money to spend for a lot of the promising free agents to leave their teams. I can see how the next week ends up very disappointing in terms of interesting news and lots of the free agents get overpaid to stay home, just for teams to hit that cap floor.

Speaking of which, I can’t see how that cap floor is a good thing. It just seems like an engine for teams to overpay mediocre players and cripple their financial outlook. I understand the idea behind it, but I wonder if it’ll end up a poor solution to the problem.

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I don’t think the floor is going to cripple anybody. The long term deals are the real killers, especially when an extension gets signed in year 4 of a six year contract and the last three years of the first signing bonus get rolled into the prorated new cap number. If you’re just worried about reaching the floor, you can always sing somebody to a one-year deal. You might overpay that player, but you’ll be free of the cap number come next season.

15

Carson Palmer retired.

How crazy is that, that a well paid QB in what should be the prime of his career just decides to quit football because the Bengals are just such a ball of disfunction and suck?

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Yeah. Tell me aboutit.

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He’s been saying all offseason that he would retire if they didn’t trade him. It’s possible both sides are waiting for the other one to blink, although I can’t rule out the Bengals being stupid or the possibility that Palmer is really OK with walking away at this point.

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Roy Williams
Marion Barber
Leonard Davis
Marc Columbo

CUT

Felix and Dez are starters.

19

Nick Barnett out. No surprise there.

20

And McNabb to the Vikings. While I don’t think McNabb can make them a playoff team I think he could be an excellent mentor for Ponder