So far it’s been a really quiet off-season around here. The NFL Combine is happening this weekend and no one is discussing it. This I cannot abide. I’ve been way less attentive to the goings on of the league due to my job and other IRL stuff, but we’re about 8 weeks from the Draft and we’re finally getting a view on who could be going where and which rookies embody the hopes and dreams of each team.
I’ve only watched the QB, RB and WOs (why’d they change it from WRs?) today and missed the stuff from earlier in the week. No one has really stood out to me except Robert Woods, WR, USC. He looked like a natural pass catcher and was the most fluid and polished guy I saw in what little I watched. I’m sure there are more.
Really bummed that I missed the Offensive Lineman, really want to get a good look at those guys for the Bears this year. Both Joeckel and Fisher both apparently looked great and will be top 10, maybe top 5 picks. That’s going to make it unlikely that Lane Johnson or Chance Warmack slip to the Bears at 20.
Everyone seems to think the Bears will grab either TE, Eiffert or Ertz, with that pick and it’s certainly a major need spot but I’m not entirely convinced either guy (or any TE not names Gronkowski) is worth a 1st rounder. Frankly I think Trestman plans to make do with some combo of existing talent and cheap FAs at the position, but it’ll all comes down to BPA.
So, what did everyone else see? Barkley or Geno Smith as the 1st QB taken? Chiefs? Cardinals? Raiders? Jags?
The OL’s did not do much to change the already expected draft order, except Terron Armstead and Lance Johnson who had some exceptional 40-times for linemen with Terron setting a combine record of 4.71, which is the equivalent of a WR/RB running a 4.1, and Lance almost matching it at a 4.72.
I am guessing that the Chiefs are probably the mystery suitor who will be getting Alex Smith in the trade with the 49ers. If the trade does not include thier #1 pcik then I am guessing that Luke Joeckel will be #1 overall and unless the QBs this year start picking it up in Pro Days, the top 10 will be dominated by D and O lines. I am not seeing anything impressive enough to separate any of the QBs from the pack or to put them over guys like Eric Fisher, Bjorn Warner, Chance Warrmack and Sharriff Floyd. If the Chiefs are not the suitor, Geno Smith goes #1, otherwise you won’t see a QB until maybe the Cards at #7 or it is possible they may all drop to the second round. The teams really needing QB also have holes that will be met with BPA in other positions at first round pick levels.
The combine doesn’t do much for me at all. I much more enjoy checking out condensed game tape at a place like draft breakdown.
As far as the combine is concerned, I just can’t get excited by burning 40 times or throwing and catching by QB’s and WR’s who aren’t covered at all. I don’t see Marquise Goodson or Onterio McCalebb taking the NFL by storm, despite how fast they are on a synthetic track. It is nice to see guys I know nothing about, but are really starting to like, like Terron Armstead and Margus Hunt, but I really have no interest in watching the combine.
The QB pool this year is odd to me. There is no star talent, but figuring out which one of these guys, if any, can become NFL starters is going to be a crapshoot. I want to like Landry Jones, but his inconsistency and elongated release bug me; I love Matt Barkley’s intangibles and smarts, but not his noodle arm; and I really don’t see anything in Geno Smith to be excited about. To me, it seems like there are a bunch of guys who could develop into solid starters, but they are all flawed in some major way. It will be interesting to see how the read/option guys like EJ Manuel or Collin Klein rise up the draft boards as the draft approaches.
Some dumb GM is going to pull the trigger on Te’o well before he should come off the board - he might represent value late on but I wouldn’t use a 2nd rounder on him. I’m just hoping it’s not the Cardinals with the dumb GM (inside linebacker is not a need for them though - if reports are right and they are switching back to the 4-3, then Daryl Washington has that position sewn up).
Having done some cursory research, I would expect the Cardinals to not go for a QB, per Omni’s OP, in the 1st round. There appear to be a number of good OL prospects and one of them should be available for the Cardinals at 7.
That said, given the Chiefs have just traded for Alex Smith (for a 2nd rounder and a conditional pick in 2014), presumably they are not going QB with their pick either. Perversely, I hope the Cards don’t take a QB. Everyone who was under center sucked for the Cards in 2012, but I don’t like any of the QBs in this class. I can’t see any of them surpassing mediocrity.
So, Alex Smith is heading to Kansas City. Good luck to him, but frankly I’m still not sold on him. I think they paid too much (reported 2 2nd round picks).
He was total dog shit before Jim Harbaugh showed up. At one point or another the guy lost his starting job to practically whatever other QB was on the roster. The fans were actually chanting for David Carr at one point! Under Harbaugh he was much improved, but still lost the starting job. Now, is his improvement under Harbaugh him developing as a QB, or was Harbaugh protecting him with the running game and not asking him to win games for them? I guess we’ll find out.
ESPN is saying it’s their second round pick this year (#34) and a “conditional mid-round pick” in 2014. That sounds more reasonable and the trade makes sense to me. The Chiefs have had a good running game, their QB play has been so horrible and the available options are uninspiring, so they went with someone who is closer to a proven quantity instead of taking another guy they might take two years to fail to develop.
See what happens when you put Kolb behind an OL that can keep him vertical for a while (it should be noted that the OL was ranked dead last for the games that Kolb played and improved slightly after he got injured, due to them changing the LT). If Kolb craps out, as seems likely, go for the QB next season. I would go OL with the Cards pick on that basis.
Fitzgerald’s contract still contains $15 million in prorated bonus money, which would count as dead weight against this year’s salary cap. No matter what a team would be willing to give in return for Fitzgerald, the crippling money hit makes this a non-starter. As a result, trading Fitzgerald to get pieces to help across the team (which was my initial preferred option) won’t work.
Yah that’s a lot closer to good value than 2 second rounders. I’m still not sold on him, but you’re right, there are few if any better options this offseason.
There’s a reason it’s called the underwear olympics. The NFL wants their linemen, particularly tackles, to have long arms, which makes reps harder. Anything over 30 is considered good.
There are 5 OLs that look like they could be drafted in the first 15-20 picks. Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Cooper and Warmack. If any one of them falls to the Bears at 20 I’ll be very happy, the guy in that group that was the least impressive to me what Warmack and most everyone else thinks he’s a lead pipe lock to be a Pro Bowl OG.
I had Fisher as the top guy I wanted all season but he’s elevated himself well out of reach and will probably be a top 10, if not top 5, pick. Now Johnson is my choice, though his similarities to Carimi are a little troubling if superficial.
I have no idea whom the Bengals might take at 21, right behind the Bears. They have several needs…safety, inside backer (unless they plan on moving Burfict there as its his natural spot and Maualuga has been colossally bad at MLB), RB are the primary needs although the pending situations with Andre Smith might have them leaning to RT if they don’t resign him (and they’d be stupid not to).
I simply have no idea about any of the players in this draft other than what’s being tossed about out there. This past season I watched the least amount of college ball than I ever have before.
After Cinci tagged Michael Johnson, the Browns have the most cap room in the league heading into free agency. Let’s see if they cheap out with some stupid “build through the draft” nonsense.
It’s not a good test of strength - the longer your arms are, the less you’ll be able to do that motion even with an equal amount of strength. The best tackle prospects have long arms - and so have the hardest time with the bench press. Wish they’d develop some different strength testing techniques.
The Eagles have $33 million in cap room, plus another $11 million if Nnamdi is cut. That would put them somewhere in the top three in the NFL for room. I don’t expect a free agent spending spree because, well… that’s obvious enough why not. But the Eagles will make some moves in free agency. They have a good number of picks but not enough to make reasonable changes at all their positions of need.
I thought all along that it seems a lock that Joeckel will be taken #1. Especially now with Alex Smith going to KC. I’m okay with that. As I’ve said on this board, I’d rather have Fisher as I think he’ll turn out to be the better pro.
I’ll have to do some more research before making up my mind on what I’d like the Eagles to do. Right now I’m torn between an OT or an OLB. I’m not sold on either of the top DTs. The QBs aren’t good enough to take at #4. And my early, uneducated opinion is that Milliner isn’t good enough to be an impact guy.
I’d love to move down and pick up extra picks, but, looking at the draft order I can’t see any way teams move up. It seems like every team in the top half of the draft has needs that align with their likely options. You’d need someone to fall in love with a commodity. QBs do it, but probably not this year. OTs maybe, but there are plenty options this year. You’d also need someone with similar needs to leapfrog. Maybe the Jets want a QB, but who above them is likely to take one? Arizona? Doesn’t look good for Philly this draft.
Stuff like that would be a lot more useful. Even stuff like squat weight and such would probably be more informative than the bench press. It’s weird that the bench press seems to be the only (?) test of strength at the combine.
Finding myself thinking a fair bit about Jake Long. He’s probably entering free agency at the lowest point in his career. I know he’s had a rough go of it lately on the field and with injuries, but I don’t think I believe he’s gone from the best tackle in the league to a bust in just 2 seasons. The Bears really need help at OT (and OG and C) and with the big 3 rookies likely gone getting a FA seems like a good move. Plenty of people have been talking about the Bears chasing Brendan Albert, and I wouldn’t hate it since I loved him coming out of college, but I think Albert will break the bank and hurt our chances of resigning some key role players on D.
Back to Long, there’s some debate how desperate the Bears are at LT. Webb graded out as our best OL last year - tallest midget but still - and financially it makes sense to hold onto him. That said I’d be shocked in Long weren’t a huge upgrade. If the Bears can land Long on the cheap, relatively speaking, and he comes back to play at anything close to his previous best it’s a gold mine. If Long’s best years are behind him and he’s just middling, well I think that’s still a value for the Bears. An average OT is not something we’ve had for a long time. I don’t know Long’s game well enough to know if he can switch to the right side or OG if Webb makes the leap (or Long struggles) but on paper Long looks like he could be the next John Tait. The injuries are really scary and if he’s the same price as Albert it’s and easy choice, but if the discount is significant it’s a gamble I’d be happy to take.