NFL draft

In My Humble Opinion
1

So, here we are, the NFL draft is this up coming weekend.
Yes I am aware of this thread: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=357818&page=1&pp=50
but is 3 pages long and abandoned for most of a month. So a fresh start here.
Who will your team target in the first round? Positional needs not met in pre-draft FA? What positions should be filled in the draft by your team? How do you think the top 10 will shake out?

As the lone Cards fan (and the thread starter) let me start.

Arizona Cardinals:
Position of needs: LB, OL, DS, DT, QB, TE
In the first round sitting at Number 10 will be tough to gauge who will be on the board. It is a given that Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, D’Brickashaw Ferguson,Mario Williams, A.J.Hawk, and Vernon Davis will all be gone by number 10 in the draft.
The last three draft slots prior to number 10 could be filled by Micheal Huff,Haloti Ngata, Vince Young,Jay Cutler, Broderick Buckley.

At the beginning of the draft process I was very High on Vernon Davis as a Cardinal. While is is going to be a great TE, He is not really needed. Sure he will bring to an offense play making such as Gates in San Diego or Gonzo does to Kansas City. Yet, Neither of those teams have the WRs my Beloved Cardinals have in Boldin and Fitzgerald. With a RB who can run the ball, catch and block as the Edge brings, The Top notch TE is more a luxury than a need, the TE position is deep and can be addressed later.

The one player I would love to drop to number is is Micheal Huff. A play maker in the defensive backfield to go along with A. Wilson and last years Number one S. Rolle. Haloti Ngata as a nice wide DT would help fill a huge hole in a poor run defense Or a LB such as Ernie Sims would work for me as well. I do not like the idea of picking up a QB in the first round.

The Cardinals need to walk away with a play maker on defense in the first round and picking up depth in the OL and DL and a TE and a project QB as well.

My top 10 picks are.

Texans : Reggie Bush
Saints: D’brickashaw Ferguson
Titans: Matt Leinart
Jets: Mario Williams
Packers: A. J. Hawk
49ers: Vernon Davis
Raiders: Vince Young
Bills: Haloti Ngata
Lions: Winston Justice
Cardinals: Michael Huff
There is my predictions and take on the matter.

Osip

2

The interesting free agency and trades among teams this Spring, especially the QB moves, make my early predictions look a little bit shakey right now.

Looking forward to some HUGE surprises.

3

Agreed, NoClueBoy. This isn’t going to be a cut-and-dry draft. There’s going to be at least one big whatthefuck trade.

Now, with my beloved Lions…

I’m not (or at least wasn’t) too high on Michael Huff, the guy they’ve got the Lions taking in nearly every mock draft. They say that a big positive on him is that he can play safety or corner. That sounds like a minus to me. If you’re not fast/athletic enough to play corner, you play safety. Also, if there is such a situation in which a guy is useful in both capacities, then you either do the unthinkable and move him around your defense like a free radical, making plays all over the field or stick his ass at corner.
I’ve got a lot more Huff-friendly as of recent days because they’re saying he’s a very good tackler (“better than most safeties in the NFL already” according to Eric Allen) and can covre the slot reciever or athletic tight end if need be. Because of Kenoy Kennedy’s lack of range and ball coverage skills (but his VERY hard tackling), Huff might provide a good yin to that yang.
Now, if we took Cutler, I wouldn’t be too unhappy either. We’d kick out Shawn King and have 4 quarterbacks (9th overall quarterbacks aren’t necessarily THAT cap unfriendly).

You are the very first person I’ve seen that’s had the Lions taking Winston Justice. Got any sources?

In an ideal world, the Lions take Huff/Cutler and with the second pick, take Gabe Watson and perhaps Rodrique Wright with the third, if he’s still there. Then i want Mr. Bloom from Colorado to ensure my special teams stay, well…special.

I’m happy with the defense, and I’m also happy with the offense, especially under Martz. My only concern is whether or not Martz is going to forget he has a monster in the backfield with Kevin Jones like he did with Stephen Jackson in St. Louis. I think a weak point for us is the offensive line, but new coaching might help patch that up a tad. I’d just like to see one group of offensive linemen and one offensive coordinator stick around for more than a year and a half. Is that too much to ask for?

About the Cardinals…are you concerned with your offensive line? I would be. I love me an Edgerrin James, but with Warner in the backfield, I’m not sold on James’ effectiveness.

4

I don’t see Vince Young dropping past the Jets, either. That also makes a little free fall for Matt Leinart.

Usually, there’s a player that I want that’s at or about at the spot where the Lions take in the draft, and I’m just not fired up about anyone this year. I’m usually spot on with the draft, but I’m just…lost right now.

(Yes, last year, I got the Mike Williams pick right, the Kevin Jones pick right, the Roy Williams pick right, the Boss Bailey pick right ,and the Charles Rogers pick right on the nose. I’m the new Mel Kiper, I tells ya.)

5

ESPN has a lot of info to look over. One interesting thing to note is that the Texans are ceurrently negotiating with the both Bush AND Williams. They have the leverage for a major trade if they wish for one. Personally, I think their D needs more help than their O.

As for Denver, I am really looking for them to score well with either some linemen (O or D), or a sleeper WR/TE. But who? That’s what’s bugging me. They pick 15th in the 1st and 5th in the 2nd. Hell, I would LOVE that in a fantasy draft! Let’s see what hapens irl.

6

No sources on Winton Justice, other than he provides a young solid upgrade to the offensive line. A better line will give that warm body holding the QB position for McNown a chance to survive and help out in the rushing attack. (Josh will be your QB for a long time once John Kitna is out of the way)

As for AZs O-line it will improve and was a much better line than last year indicated. Most people fail to realize the Cards had gone thru 3 centers due to injury before the first game of the season. The new line coach is solid, I suspect late round OL drafted to be groomed and some older June 1 O-line casualties can fill in some training camp spots for depth.

7

Gotcha. Personally, I think Justice is moving so high up the draft boards because he’s the next offensive lineman in the draft. Because his kind is scarce, his stock gets to go up.

I agree that Kitna’s going to be out of the way and that if I would have known that we were going to get McCown as well, then I’d have vetoed the Kitna signing. Either way, if we had only one, we’d draft Cutler.

This muddles things.

8

Probably, but Bush seems to be one of those players you just don’t pass up. I think Houston will end up taking him.

I’ve seen predictions that the Bills will take Justice or Vernon Davis. I think Davis looks like an outstanding prospect, but the word right now seem to be that he won’t get down to the eighth pick.

9

I was going to start this same thread today, glad to see you’ve saved me the trouble. It’s really pathetic how much I enjoy the draft.

I’m expecting a big trade come draft day amongst the top 10 teams. Too much has happened in free agency and this draft class is too loaded (and varied) for there not to be some maneuvering at the top. GMs tend to out think themselves and I think a few of those teams will be gun shy about staking their future on a first round QB. I’m not sure if it’s going to be the Texans or Saints, both seem possible, but I think they’ll have to be bowled over by an offer.

Mario Williams and Reggie Bush are certainly going with the top 2 picks. It’s not clear in what order they’ll go either. Reggie Bush is certainly a transcendent talent, but stud defensive ends are rarer and Williams is going to be a great one. I think the Texans are going to take Bush if they stay in that spot, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a team like Green Bay or Buffalo leaping up to get Williams at #1.

The Saints signing Brees was a stoke of genius. It gives them all the leverage in the world here. They can trade down with anyone they want and can realistically still nab a top player at a position of need. If they stand pat and Williams falls to them as expected they can confidently take a likely Pro Bowler without the bad PR from passing on Young or Leinart.

Vince Young is going to be a bust of monumental proportions. Too many teams need a franchise QB in the top half of the draft, so he probably won’t fall far (certainly not past the Raiders) but whoever takes him will regret it. Nothing he did in college prepared him for the NFL and the elite athleticism won’t allow him to exploit defenses the way he did in college. Say what you will about scouts nitpicking players, looking for fault, and the inexact science of evaluations but they are dead on about two things. His delivery is going to be a huge liability. He’ll see too many batted passes and stripped footballs when that scouting report gets out. Also, having played in a spread offensive system custom designed for him at Texas will create a huge learning curve as he adapts to a NFL offense, a learning curve many wonder if he’ll be able to overcome. A team that drafts him will have to completely build it’s offense around him and not the other way around, teams historically haven’t been willing to do that. The last time it happened was with Randall Cunningham, and the Vick experiment is proving that shoehorning a player into a system isn’t a wise move.

Matt Leinart is not Carson Palmer. He’ll be a solid QB who has leadership skills and will adapt to the NFL system faster than Young due to his experience in a pro set. Still, his arm and accuracy probably don’t warrant his likely top 5 draft slot. His career will probably be closer to that of Brian Griese than Palmer. There’s probably only one person in the NFL who really knows what Leinart’s true potential is, Norm Chow, and it’ll be interesting to see what the Titans do. Their choice could be a good barometer of Leinart’s future will be, if Chow takes him it means he’s really confident we’ll be a franchise guy, if not he must know how serious his flaws are.

Vernon Davis is a monster, his size is slightly less than ideal for a TE and he needs to learn to block better, but he’s got the talent and apparently the drive to be great. Months ago, when he was projected in the mid to late teens I held hope that he’d somehow end up a Bear. Apparently words gotten out and he’s rocketed into perhaps the top 5 so that dream is shot. Whoever gets him is going to be very happy, my money is that the 49ers will take him. They lack targets for Alex Smith, Davis would make the 49ers O look similar to San Diego and Kansas City.

Here’s what my big board looks like:

  1. Mario Williams
  2. Reggie Bush
  3. D’brickashaw Ferguson
  4. A.J. Hawk
  5. Vernon Davis
  6. Jay Cutler
  7. Matt Leinart
  8. Haloti Ngata
  9. Michael Huff
  10. Vince Young

I think the draft, not accounting for a big trade, will play out something like this:

  1. Texans - Reggie Bush
  2. Saints - Mario Williams
  3. Titans - Matt Leinart
  4. Jets - Vince Young
  5. Packers - A.J. Hawk
  6. 49ers - Vernon Davis
  7. Raiders - Haloti Ngata
  8. Bills - D’brickashaw Ferguson
  9. Lions - Michael Huff
  10. Cardinals - Winston Justice
  11. Rams - Broderick Bunkley
  12. Browns - Kamerion Wimbley
  13. Ravens - Jay Cutler
  14. Eagles - Chad Jackson
  15. Broncos - Manny Lawson
  16. Dolphins - Jimmy Williams
  17. Vikings - Ernie Sims
  18. Cowboys - Jason Allen
  19. Chargers - Jonathan Joseph
  20. Chiefs - Tye Hill
  21. Patriots - Bobby Carpenter
  22. 49ers - Chad Greenway
  23. Buccaneers - Santonio Holmes
  24. Bengals - Ashton Youboty
  25. Giants - DeMeco Ryans
  26. Bears - Leonard Pope
  27. Panthers - DeAngelo Williams
  28. Jaguars - Mercedes Lewis
  29. Jets - Laurence Maroney
  30. Colts - Joseph Addai
  31. Seahawks - Donte Whinter
  32. Steelers - LenDale White
    We’ll see how accurate that is. Frankly I’m half predicting what I expect teams to do, especially in the first 10 picks, and half deciding what they should do. Probably for that reason my guesses will be way off. The Leinart and Vince Young picks could easily flip-flop. LenDale White could move up the board at any one of those RB spots, I think the Steelers take the best RB available regardless. If all the first round RBs are gone they’ll probably look at Sinorice Moss. The Patriots could easily go for a RB with that pick instead of a LB, but my gut tells me Carpenter will be perceived as a great value pick there. The Jets, assuming they do take one of the QBs there, might opt for Nick Mangold instead of a RB with their second pick. Obviously I think Cutler deserves to go higher than #13 to the Ravens, but I don’t think he goes ahead of Young or Leinart and teams like the Cardinals and Rams have too many other needs to draft a backup QB there (plus they, as well as the Raiders, should be hoping Croyle is there is the early second round). If the Ravens get McNair everything changes of course, then he might slide to the Vikings which would be a godsend. All those DBs are a bit of a crapshoot. Everyone needs DBs and there will be a run on them, which goes to which team depends on each teams preference and I really am just guessing. LB is a shallow position that might have some of those later teams reaching, Ryans, Carpenter and Greenway might go higher than they should since there aren’t many good LBs in the later rounds. Chad Jackson will be a huge factor here, every team in the mid-teens needs a WR and he’s climbing the boards. Denver is going to freak out if the Eagles take him, and they really should, and the Ravens might take him if they get McNair.

As for the Bears, I’m almost certain they’ll take a TE if the Manning deal comes through. I like Pope’s size and blocking ability though most experts have Lewis rated ahead of him. I haven’t really heard what the Bears chart looks like. No way Chad Jackson slides to there and it’s too early to reach for Moss, though I’d love to have him. Some people expect the Bears to trade down into the top/middle of the 2nd round. If they do, I’ll be hoping they can get Moss in the early 2nd round and Pope or Fasano in the late 2nd round.

10

First things first:

Green Bay Packers

Team Needs:

  1. Interior OL - We learned last year how much losing your top two guards can hurt your team, and, given Favre’s penchant for throwing idiotic interceptions, the Packers need to focus on the run. However, there isn’t an interior offensive lineman who is worth the #5 pick, so I’d be estatic to get Jean-Gilles in the second round. Even if they get a great G in the early rounds, they’d need to find a gem later to solidify the interior of their line.

  2. Defensive end - The Pack were in the middle in number of sacks, and they could use a big rusher to take pressure off their young secondary. I’d love to have Mario Williams fall to #5, but I can’t see that happening. If he’s gone, maybe a trade down from #5 a couple spots and hope to get either Ngata or Hawk.

  3. Linebacker - I’m a huge fan of Nick Barnett, but he needs help. Hawk, of course, is looking like the guy we’ll get, which would give us a great start rebuilding a defense.

Of course, they also need to look for a healthy rb, a solid cover CB, and a wide receiver not named Javon Walker. Basically, there are a fair number of team needs that need addressing.

Now the draft:

First Round - Picking number 5 in this draft puts the Pack in a very interesting position. It’s possible, actually likely, that the Best Player Available will not match their team needs. Leinart may fall to them, which would make their decision very difficult to make, because I do see him as a franchise quarterback. But we spent last seasons first round pick on Aaron Rodgers, who hasn’t had a chance to prove himself. If Mario Williams is available (which I doubt, unless someone trades up to snag another player), I’d be thrilled to have him. I also love Hawk, and the smart money is on the Packers getting him if Williams is not available. It will be a very interesting draft indeed.

Other guys I’m high on getting: If LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams miraculously fall to the second round, they’d be idiots not to grab them. More realistically, I’d like to see Davin Joseph, Max Jean-Gilles, Maurice Drew, Nick Mangold, and DeMeco Ryans in the Green and Gold.

Last Year’s Draft: On draft day, I was asking anyone who would listen, who the hell was Nick Collins, and why did the Pack waste a second round pick on a guy from Bethune-Cookman. Boy was I wrong, because he really impressed me, and could be a pro-bowler soon. Time will tell if their getting Aaron Rodgers was a good pick or not. The rest of the draft was pretty solid, but unspectacular.
Now, here’s how I see the first few picks of the first round going.

  1. Texans - Reggie Bush. You can’t pass up a guy like this, especially with a fragile rb in Domanick Davis. They could trade down, but it is incredibly unlikely any team will pay the heavy price that comes with trading up to the #1 pick.

  2. New Orleans Saints - Mario Williams. I would love to see the Saints trade down, which may leave Mario available for the Pack, but I think the Saints need help on defense too much to let him go. D’Brickshaw is another option, but they need help on defense more than they do on the Offensive Line.

  3. Tennessee Titans - Matt Leinart. With the way they are treating Steve McNair, I’m guessing their looking at finding a franchise QB. And I think the Titans are smart enough to take Norman Chow protege Leinart over McNair protege Vince Young. Ferguson is, of course, another possibility.

  4. New York Jets - D’Brickshaw Ferguson. Although they need a QB, they’ll wait one more year on Pennington and grab a guy who will start in the NFL for 10+ years.

  5. Green Bay Packers - A.J. Hawk. With Mario and D’Brickshaw gone, Hawk is the the best fit. He’s an outstanding player and will make an immediate impact for the Packers.

  6. San Francisco 49ers - Vernon Davis. They’d love to trade down and get more picks to fill the multiple holes they have on their team, and, believe it or not, I could see teams jumping up to grab Young (or Leinart if he’s available), Cutler, or Huff. If not, the 49ers need someone to catch the ball. After losing Brandon Lloyd, they have a bunch of mediocre players. Unfortuantely for them, there’s no wide receiver worth a #6 pick, but Vernon Davis is. He’s a solid playmaker who can make an immediatel impact.

  7. Oakland Raiders - Vince Young. Al Davis will take the chance.

That’s enough for now.

11

Not to point out the obvious here, but Chow isn’t the one making the pick. The question would be how well he could sell the organization on Leinart.

12

I understand that, the Titans would be foolish to go against Chow’s wishes on this one. His experience with Leinart simply has to be the most credible and reliable scouting data they can have on any player. If Chow insists he’s the guy for them I’d be shocked if they went another way considering he’s the guy who’ll be coaching the position.

Reports are that the GM and ownership want Vince Young while Fisher and Chow want Leinart. It’s not clear what ownership’s motivation is, but I think the coaches’ opinions will win out. Fisher isn’t exactly a rookie coach beholden to his benefactor.

13

As a Redskins fan, I’m hoping they use their 1st round pick on…

…oh yeah. We traded that away last year.

:smack:

14

snerk yeah…it’s nice to mortgage your draft picks the year before the draft. Then it’s like being Jewish on Christmas.

15

I have too much work right now to throw a ton of time at this… but re: the Pats first-round pick, I agree that Carpenter is as likely a choice as any. I’d like to see DeAngelo Williams if he’s still available there, maybe even over Carpenter. If both are gone, I like Maroney. I also tend to think there’s a pretty good chance they go somewhere unpredictable.

This is going to be a great draft to watch unfold, because of the lack of predictability and huge number of possibilities for things to work out. Which makes me happy, because there would seem to be a lot of room for a team that is skillful at drafting to take advantage of the situation, and the Patriots have a good history there.

16

I’m on board with Williams for the sole reason that I’d love to see the Pats fuck one up. Williams is going to be a bust. He’s got serious questions about his effort level and can’t catch or block worth a shit. He was aloof about those shortcomings at the Senior Bowl and workouts and hasn’t made any progress in preparation for the draft. He’s not that fast or agile either…he’s got Ki-Jana Carter written all over him. Please take him.

17

sigh
I listed
Bills: Haloti Ngata
when on reflection, Buckley is a better DT fit for the Bills defense.

I am holding on to hope The cards draft Defense in the first round.
I like Ngata, Huff, Sims or Buckley. No offensive players of any worth with the exception of Justice will be availible at 10.

I will be seriously annoyed if Young falls to the Cards. I agree with Omni He is going to be a nice QB bust.

Big trade suprises…
I see Green Bay jettisoning a particular disgruntled WR. Heck, The Pack should just come out and say We are going to start a youth movement now, instead of waiting for the “great one” to decide when he is going to retire.
I think Denver, Philly and KC could use a WR. Denver having the edge.

Saints can and maybe will get out of the second slot, and trade down a little.

Redskins do not have much to offer otherwise it would be very Snideresque to jump around in the draft.

To bad Ditka is not a GM somewhere THAT would be entertainment!!

18

Just a little nitpick, it’s Bunkley not Buckley, and I agree that he’s going to be a pretty good addition to whoever takes him, but Ngata is a much better talent. Still, I think the Bills, with McGahee and Losman trying to develop, would be foolish to not take either Ferguson or Justice in the first round. Both would be a good value at that spot and one or both will almost certainly be available. Look at it this way, in the AFC East there’s not exactly a opponent with a dominant running attack assuming Ricky Williams is out. Ronnie Brown is the best of the group and he’s pretty damn good, but he’s not LT yet, and Martin and Dillon are husks of their former selves. Getting a run stuffer seems superfluous when you have need at OT[sup]*[/sup].

    • Upon closer inspection the Bills added a couple FAs with experience at tackle, but I’m not sure what the projected depth chart is. Gibson is better at OG and was hot and cold with the Bears at OT. Morgan is probably nothing more than depth. I think the Bills draft board should look like this: Ferguson, Ngata, Justice, Bunkley, Wimbley; and they should take the best available in that order regardless of position. Jauron is a defensive guy who didn’t exactly appear visionary as a drafter in Chicago so I’m not going to assume he’ll do the most logical thing from my perspective.

Would be very interesting to say the least. If Green Bay does decide to go this way I’d expect the trade to happen immediately after Chad Jackson goes off the board. If the Eagles nab him before the Broncos, they’d be wise to trade with Green Bay straight up for that 1st round pick. The Pack could add to their defensive line, backfield or o-line depending on who slides to the mid teens. If Justice falls to that spot and you can essentially trade Walker heads up for him, you do it.

19

That’s what I love about football, the playful disagreements that can arise.

You’re wrong. You’re “Jay Cutler will be a great NFL quarterback” wrong. There are certainly reasons to be concerned about Williams, his size, his sitting out of the Tennessee game, and the small school thing. But, even with teams putting 8 or 9 guys in the box, he put up the yards and td’s. He’s not afraid to run between the tackles, he’s patient waiting for holes, and he’s got great instincts. I disagree with you that he can’t catch or block, most of the stuff I’ve read has him as better than average on both those things.

I’m not saying that he’s going to be Payton or Sanders, but he’ll have a nice, solid career like Tiki or Warrick Dunn. God knows he’ll outlast Cutler in the NFL.

I think Thompson has all but said this with his moves in the offseason. I think Brett wants to give it one more year to redeem his image, but Thompson isn’t going to mortgage the future to build a playoff team for one last hurrah for Favre. As a Packer fan, I am resigning myself to a couple years of rebuilding, and, in fact, I hope that Favre retires. I will miss Javon though, he was something special. Too bad he’s got a bit of T.O. in him. They may be able to grab a great pick from Denver, but I’ve heard that the Eagles may be unwilling to give up much for him.

20

The Saints are in a pretty good cap situation (10th best currently), and Stallworth has supposedly been shopped around (in a contract year). If they were to pick up Mario Williams, I think both the Saints and Packers would both have an opportunity to immediately improve exchanging Grant and Walker. That or maybe just switching spots for Walker and maybe a third. I would prefer the latter as I think Grant is getting a bum rap. He didn’t rack up the sacks last season, but he was in a 3 man rotation for some of the year and he was 17th in tackles by a d-lineman. He’s also shown in the past that he is capable of getting to the QB (20.5 in 03-04). I can’t for the life of me find out how long he’s signed for, though, as he may not be signed for much longer and, like so many other players, probably doesn’t want to play here.