NFL draft

In My Humble Opinion
21

Heh, you’re right that many of the internet outlets do have Williams listed as being a “versatile” back with “good receiving ability” and they all are insane. The guy had a whopping 58 catches for 645 yard for his entire college career compared to 659 rushing attempts. During the Senior Bowl practices and skills competitions his hads were flat out awful and his one catch on a screen in the game didn’t prove much.

People can realistically say he’s got unproven receiving ability, and may or may not be good, but the fact is he’s never shown an ability to catch the ball. He hasn’t been asked to, I realize, but in what little video I’ve seen none of it’s been good regarding his hands. Anyone who says he’s got great hands is a liar, since he simply has never been asked to catch the ball.

He measured 2 inches shorter than listed and 10 pounds lighter, placing him at a whopping 5’8" and 209 pounds (at most) which is expected to make him a real liability from both a durabilitiy standpoint, been hurt 2 years in a row and has had ACL surgery, and unable to block blitzing linebackers one-on-one.

His production in college was impressive, against crappy competition, but it’s also a detriment when you consider the wear and tear he’s already endured. Look at what happened to Cedric Benson this year (which I predicted) after being a 4-year starter.

I like Cutler a little more than Leinart and much much more than Young, but I’m not one of those guys calling him a sure thing. No QB is and RBs are always easier to project than QBs. If you offered me Cutler or Williams, I’ll take Cutler every time though.

22

My $0.02 as an eagles fan:

Number 1 is going to be Bush. Houston just can’t afford not to take this guy. Basically a consensus #1 overall, and worthy of it. No way is Williams going 1.

I see the saints taking D’Brickshaw Ferguson. Stud LT are worth so much, make all of your skill guys that much better.

Titans take Leinart, word is the coaches want him.
Jets take Williams. Best player left on the board.
Packers: AJ Hawk. Just a great player for the frozen tundra of Lambeau field.
49ers: Vernon Davis. Alex Smith needs somebody to help him.
Raiders: Vince Young. Al Davis.
Bills: ?. I can’t decide who they will take. I can see them trying to trade this for more picks
Lions: Winston Justice or maybe Mangold. Millen finally realizes a team is made from the lines out (not from the sidelines IN)
Cardinals: Michael Huff. I am agreeing with the OP here mostly because he says he is a cards fan. I have only ever met/heard from 1 of those before :). Huff is by all accounts an excellent DB, and I think his ability to play safety like a corner or corner like a safety is a good thing. Tackling + speed = great DB.

Now for the Eagles, my team. They need a LB, DT, C, WR, RB imo. Reid always starts from the lines, so depending on who is left I see them taking either of the big 2 DT (bunkley or Ngata), or Nick Mangold. Don’t see Justice as a pick because of his history, He Who Shall Not Be Named has made the Eagles very afraid of any problem players. Might be a slight reach to go Mangold, but with 10 picks, and 6 in the 1st 4 rounds the Eagles have the power to do so. Of course I would love to see them trade for Walker, but asking a 2 is a little much for a WR who blew out his knee just one year ago.

23

As the stodgy old fart trying to tell you what life was like Pre-Favre when we walked barefoot, uphill to the stadium in 8 feet of snow, I’d like to offer a few thoughts and see what you all think.

First, it was with 90% heart and 10% brain I was cheering the Pack at the end of last season. (Yeah, yeah, I just came up with as many one-liners as the rest of you combined. :stuck_out_tongue: ) I wanted those wins so badly, but my inner sanity was screaming “REGGIE BUSH!!!” Each loss was another reason to root for Houston, San Fran, et al. And when Houston played San Fran? The joy of a tie may have given me a stroke.

Second, I have to trust Thompson in his method of drafting talent and then developing. I was excited for about 18 hours when I heard the Pack interviewed Arrington, but knew Ted wouldn’t offer a long-term deal Lavar was looking for. Sorry 'Skins fans, but Thompson is kind of the anti-Snyder of the league. Whether Brett plays this year (I’m at about 50-50 right now) or not, Ted is looking to build a team that will be serious contenders for the next 5 - 10 years. And he has a fairly good record at scouting young talent.

Some idle thoughts I’d like an opinion on. Most wild fantasies, but stranger things have happened.

  1. Reggie Bush. A lock for the #1 pick since about 1922 or so, it feels like. Last summer it seems you could find more people that had him first than Catholics that believe the Pope prays. Now he has a little negative ink about the house lease, which would never disqualify his talent, but the shine gets a little tarnished nonetheless in the press. Add to that the contract talk with Houston, and I start to think Houston is looking to up the ante on anyone thinking of trading.

Yes, I know this is far-fetched, but stay with me on this. Green Bay trades Javon Walker, Ahman Green and maybe Samkon Gado or Brady Poppinga to Houston for that pick? Green Bay has a proven talent, while assuming a pretty big risk, to set in stone the RB position for the next 10 years. Houston has a premiere WR, a proven Pro-Bowl RB and either a proven-potential RB or LB with a huge upside. Culpepper for a 2nd round pick? I’ve seen crazier stuff happen.
2. Matt Leinart. Yes, we took Rodgers with the 1st Rd pick. Doesn’t matter. You have to think to the future on this one. (And maybe have a few beers.) Frankly, neither has any NFL experience. (Garbage time doesn’t count.) I’m not a scout and really don’t know if one is better than the other on paper. Maybe I can get some help on the assessment comparing the two. Rodgers has a year of wearing the jersey and not only studying under one of the greatest QB’s to play the game, but during his worst year as a Pro.

I wonder if Ryan Leaf sat a year and learned from someone like Favre last year if it may have made a difference. Maybe not, but a Rookie looking to be top dog, backing up a HOF lock that had Favre’s year? Maybe a different outcome. Either way, I have to think Rodgers is better off experiencing that year under Favre. He’s seen the highs and lows, the rabid expectation, utter dejection. Most important, he’s seen how to get through the 17 weeks in less-than-ideal conditions. He doesn’t have on-field experience, but he’s got NFL experience.

This would give Green Bay a position of having 2 franchise QB’s in the stable. Let me remove the fan belt of of a running drag car thinking of how this is a bad thing.

OK, those were my long-winded scenarios. The next 2 are shorter. The first was pie-in-the-sky but not impossible, the second is 4th on my wish list, but possible if the next 2 don’t pan out.
3. Mario Williams. Anyone ranking him lower than 5 if he’s available and the above two scenarios are out the window need to lay the crack pipe down and stop mainlining Drano. And this is a close call, but I’ll take him over Hawk.

KGB needs another quick, ass-kicking pass-rusher to really be effective. KGB had great numbers until defenses realized the other end was weak and could double-team him every play. Take the heat off KGB with another DE that is as much a threat and you get some pressure on opposing QB’s.
4. AJ Hawk. Very, very close to Williams on my wish list. So close I’d be equally happy with either. Nick Barnett is a proven LB. Flat out. No argument. One of the saving graces of the defense the past two years. Poppinga (mentioned above) was supposed to be the compliment, but it hasn’t manifested yet.

Get Hawk in there and you have the potential of a LB corps that could be the talk of the NFL. In a moment of honesty, though, I will say this. The way Barnett exploded in dominance and what looks like a possible attitude, he may not like sharing the limelight with Hawk. It would be interesting to see how McCarthy would handle this made up situation.

That’s long enough for a post. The rambling must end. I know it’s Packer-centric, but I really would like some thoughts on this. And any other thoughts on what you think the Pack may or will do during or before draft day.

Notes:
The Favre deal. I think it’s a non-issue. They both know what the other wants. There is no way the front office is waiting for a decision in July. They both know the decision and are planning accordingly. I’d bet on it. Why give a deadline 6 weeks before pre-season starts to know if you’re starting the franchise QB or all and out rebuilding? And with a GM that doesn’t look for a quick fix but rather sustained quality, he’s pretty much telling Favre “You’re welcome back, but on our terms. Your choice.”
Of course, every year I prove why I shouldn’t be in control. But every now and then the sun shines on a dog’s ass. :slight_smile:

24

duffer, you are utterly and completely insane. It’s kinda cute really. I expect Packer fans to get this way in the post-Favre era.

No fucking way in hell the Texans trade that pick for anything that doesn’t include getting a top ten pick in return. Ahman Green is probably all used up and Walker is a attitude problem at a position where the Texans are already set with Johnson and Moulds. This is not even remotely feasible. Frankly the Texans wouldn’t even give up Bush for the '98 version of Favre.

Leinart won’t be there at 5, I promise you. Plus, the Pack would be insane to take QBs with back-to-back first rounders. More insane than the Lions WR-WR-WR debocale. If Leinart were a consensus stud, franchise guy, then maybe you consider it. Palmer, Peyton Manning, Vick and Elway are the only guys I can recall that were perceived as that much of a sure thing. None of the QBs in this draft have that kind of cache. They could probably convince the Saints to trade picks with them, would probably take Walker and a second rounder, allowing them to land him at #2. The Saints would then consider moving Stallworth for another 2nd or 3rd rounder. Frankly that’s a really nice scenario for the Saints, but the Packers would still be nuts for taking Leinart.

Mario Williams is vastly more valuable than Hawk. Look at the player rankings, there’s probably 8 LBs with first round talent and 3 DEs at most. Williams is considered a sure thing and regularly abused Ferguson and other ACC tackles in this draft. Hawk will be great, but DE are much much more valuable than LBs. The Pack had Arrington available in FA, I didn’t see any former 1st round DE out there. Williams has Julius Peppers type talent. Hawk is a Dan Morgan clone, which do you think the Panthers would prefer to lose?

I agree that the Pack probably need a DE more than a LB…and while Wimbley would be a reach at 5, he might improve this team more than Hawk. Trading back 4 or 5 picks might be wise allowing them to add a high second rounder and taking the best D-lineman left at around #10-12. Ngata or Wimbley being ideal. Then they could focus on getting Mangold at the top of the second round (maybe packaging a pair of 2nd rounders to get into the end of the first round, 26th perhaps).

The Pack have tons of options, both trading up or down, and it’ll all depend on if other teams fall in love with any particular players.

25

Damned skippy Williams won’t be the next Barry. There will NEVER be another Barry, dammit. Williams’ catching is passable. He’s not Marshall Faulk and he’s not a great blocker. For his size, he’s good, but as far as most NFL running backs are concerned, his blocking is decent. Then again,

I like Mr. Williams. Worst case scenario, he’ll end up as a good third down back and grow into the role, much like Chris Perry from Michigan a couple years ago in Cincinatti.

I’m tired of the Favre drama. It’s like he’s got Larry Brownitis in him and he doesn’t want to look like a bad guy for walking away so he’s going to push the team into “making” him leave. Trade Javon to the Eagles or Broncos. I can see the Broncos maybe giving up the later of their first rounders? (I’m never good at this players’-worth-to-draft-pick conversion. There is actually a table that converts these things, by the way.)

I’ve finalized my decision concerning my Lions, however. Michael Huff it is, unless there’s a surprise, or he’s gone. Then it’s going to be Bunkley or Ngata, with Ngata getting the edge. god dammit, i still want a quarterback-for-the-future…i know we’ve got mccown…but dammit! maybe i should just shut the fuck up and stock the defense up, right?

26

***IF *** the Packers somehow land Mario Williams, then (and you heard it here) Kampman is going to be a terror in the middle.

As a Lions fan, I feel it is my duty…no, my OBLIGATION to defend the three recievers taken.

More in a bit when I get back to my room.

27

I see nothing wrong with taking three stud recievers in the first round. Mark my words. That draft strategy will end up being good. It may end up being good in the Ditka-trating-his-draft-for-Ricky-Williams good (and it WAS a good move. Williams signed a good-for-the-Saints contract and used the cap space to shore up their core veterans and make it to the playoffs).

Roy Williams is a damned fine reciever. Mike Williams will end up being a weird tight end/reciever hybrid, if only because of his size. Charles Rogers CANNOT be released or traded for a jar of spit. First of all, you can’t get close to that little return from your second overall pick from a couple years ago. Second of all, after Mariucci mailed it in last year, every time Charles Rogers had the ball, something happened. He may be brittle, but he’s got speed and talent. I think (Og, i fucking wish) that his head is on right and that Marinelli has been more of a disciplinarian. Martz had better offenses with less overall talent. I see no reason at all that it can’t come together and be, at worst, like the Cardinals corps of young recievers.

28

You’re right, except there’s 2 GIANT caveats here. 1) That you have a good QB to distribute the ball. 2) You’re not blighted at all but a couple of the other positions.

The Lions failed both those litmus tests.

29

Clearly I don’t swing by IMHO frequently enough. Stupid sports threads spread all over the boards…grumble grumble

Omni, you think the Giants are going to spend their first rounder on an OLB? We’ve got Arrington, Pierce and Emmons starting with Short, Blackburn and Torbor backing them up. (This assumes we aren’t re-signing Greisen, which sucks but is looking inevitable at this point.) Basically, we’re good at linebacker.

The biggest glaring hole is defensive tackle. That sucks, because this draft isn’t too good for DT unless you’re picking in the pre-teens. 25 is too far back to jump up to that area, so we’ll probably pick up a DT (Orien Harris) with our second rounder.

Reports say that Accorsi is sporting a chubbie for Sinorice Moss, which is bad. We simply don’t need an offensive player this draft. Not just the first round; I mean at all.

No, we’re looking at BPA for every pick except the second rounder, when it’s DT all the way. The accepted wisdom at giants.com is that Ernie’s board for the 25th pick is:

Sinorice Moss
Antonio Cromartie
DeAngelo Williams
Gabriel Watson

I’m none too pleased about this board. I’d much rather trade down with the Bills, Lions or Cardinals swapping the 25th for their 2nd and 3rd rounders. (With the appropriate 6th or 7th rounder changing hands to offset the minor value imbalance depending on which one of them.)

Ernie loves to make moves on draft day. He traded up in 2001 to get Will Allen, again in 2002 to get Shockey, and again in 2004 to get Eli; the man likes to trade picks on draft day. I’m thinking he trades down as outlined to bring in as much young talent as he can shoehorn into the roster before he retires.

30

Honestly the Giants were one of those teams where I had virtually no idea what they were going to do. I was expecting defense and more defense, like you, not having the inside scoop on what Accorsi was reported to be thinking. Moss sounds like a practically insane choice, while Williams does make a little sense if he’s there.

LB is a position where you can’t really be too deep and the Arrington signing solidifies them but I was under the impression they wanted to add two. Ryans could very well be considered the best defender available if my predictions play out anything close to accurate. DT, by most accounts, just won’t be there where they are drafting. Tamba Hali is projected somewhere in the middle of the second round and would be a reach for them in the first.

In short, the back end of the draft is a crap shoot, but if the Giants take Moss I’ll be close to shocked. Less so if they grabbed the top RB available though.

31

My guess (and it’s only a guess- obviously, I have no inside knowledge) is that Titans owner Bud Adams really wants Vince Young.

Adams is a Houston guy, after all, and during his time as Oilers owner, he was always in the habit of drafting players from Texas schools (whether they were good or not; NO other owner would’ve given Bucky Richardson of A & M a shot at being a starting quarterback!). Old habits die hard, and even if Norm Chow says Leinart’s the guy, Adams may still want his hometown hero.

What will become of Vince Young? I’m not going to state categorically that Omniscient is wrong. He COULD be a major bust in the NFL. A lot of quarterbacks I thought highly of were.

Rather, I’m just going to say that, even after seeing the guy for 4 years, after seeing him do spectacular, astonishing things almost weekly… I really have no idea whether he’ll be an unparallelled superstar or an utter flop. I can easily picture either scenario.

His Wunderlic scoresdon’t concern me, per se. He’s not an intellectual, but he’s definitely smart enough to be an NFL star. What his Wunderlic score DOES show is that he was completely unprepared for the combine. Plainly, he had no idea a test was involved, which is why he muffed it so badly.

Now, if he’d signed with a prominent, experienced agent like Leigh Steinberg, Drew Rosenhaus or Tom Condon, he’d have been well-prepared for everything that was coming. An experienced agent would have had him take sample tests repeatedly before the combine. Instead, Vince got blindsided because he’s representred by his uncle and a family friend- two well-meaning guys who just don’t know what they’re doing.

I worry about his financial future, because his agents could very well get taken to the cleaners.

32

Actually, Pro Football Weekly Draft guide says: “catches the ball easily with very dependable hands”, the NFL stated: “He caught the ball well during positional drills.” at Memphis’ pro day. I didn’t watch the Senior Bowl workouts, and his stats aren’t the best, but he wasn’t asked to catch the ball at Memphis. He was the Offensive MVP of the Senior Bowl, and, although he only caught one screen, he took it for 28 yeards. You can say that it didn’t prove much, but he’s a running back, not a wide receiver, and a majority of catches he’ll be asked to make are screens and dumps in the flats.

But for the Senior Bowl, I’ve never seen him. I didn’t watch the workouts, I didn’t see the practices. If you think he’s got awful hands, that’s your perogative.

There are certainly valid questions about his durability and injuries. He’s got a lot of carries, sat out a couple games, and a history of leg injuries. But I honestly don’t think his height is going to be that big of a problem in the pros.

Good point. I wouldn’t write Cedric, or DeAngelo, off just yet, though.

And you’d be wrong, but that’s what’s great about the NFL draft.

33

My large concern with the Lions offense lies with the offensive line and their ineptitude to open up running lanes. I hope continuity and new coaching may fix that because there is some talent on the O Line.

I just want me some Draft (not beer).

And now.

Like…NOW.

what about now?

34

I agree with all your points, and it’s true that it’s just my prerogative based on admittedly limited available film. Much of my opinions are based off the footage shown of Senior Bowl practices, which in their way, are essentially an extended pro-day workout without the luxury of familiar teammates and coaches. In short, I think they are a little more reliable than the combine and pro-day workouts. The fact that the combine and pro day don’t get 8+ hours of TV time has nothing to do with it ;).

Still, I call into question comments like PFW made. I’ve seen it often. The NFL’s statement is perfectly valid, but one which pretends his hands are a known commodity is disingenuous. A player who’s NCAA system completely eliminated the passing game from their game plan, followed by it not being included in the Senior Bowl, means that all you have to do on it his one pro day workout where his own QB threw drills. At best his hands are unproven.

I dwell on this question because of his reported size and lack of ideal speed. More than likely he’ll be shoehorned in the 3rd-down back role, which is going to place pressure on his pass catching ability beyond just screens and dumps. If he’s to be compared to the Faulks, Hearsts, Barbers and Dunns of the world he’s going to have to become a very skilled receiver working out of the slot, in motion up the field against DBs. Joseph Addai is a much more tested player in that regard as is Laurence Maroney.

35

I think the Giants would benefit most by concentrating on their defensive line and the secondary. On paper we have a very deep and extremely talented LB core. Their secondary, however, has been traditionally weak for quite some time now. I would be a lot happier if they picked up Cromartie in the first round. The problem with them solidifying the DT position is just what you said above Omniscient. None of the DTs will be around when they are picking. Watson and McCargo will likely be nowhere to be found when they are up again to pick. Tamba Hali is a DE not a DT. The Giants need a DT much more than they need an end. Lets just hope they do not take Moss because that would be a damn waste of time.

36

Regarding the Giants defensive line, think back to the debacle in San Francisco in the 2002 Wildcard game. In the ensuing offseason, Ernie Accorsi stated publicly that the primary reason Big Blue lost that game was because the defensive line was gassed in the second half. So he immediately began addressing that issue in the next draft, picking up a DT and DE (William Joseph and Osi Umenyiora) in the first two rounds respectively. He also picked up some veteran depth as a stopgap to shore it up for one (or at most two) years.

Then in 2005, Ernie spent half of his four draft picks on defensive ends, Justin Tuck and Eric Moore. He also brought in some younger free agents (Kendrick Clancy and Kenderick Allen) to shore up the unit in a more longterm fashion. At this point, in theory the G-Men had four functional ends: Strahan, Osi, Tuck and Moore, and four functional tackles: Joseph, Clancy, Robbins and Allen. That enabled the coaches to rotate guys all day long without too much of a dropoff in talent, keeping the best guys fresh enough to take over a game in the fourth quarter.

All this was great; I loved Ernie for it, and fully endorsed this philosophy. However, while the four defensive ends remain, both Kendrick Clancy and Kenderick Allen have been lost to free agency, leaving only William Joseph and Fred Robbins. (There are two other names on the roster, but they are mostly camp fodder.) Even worse, Fred Robbins was in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse all last season.

So with only two defensive tackles, and one of them a question mark, you can bet that Ernie is laying awake at nights remembering the San Francisco collapse.

In summary, there is no need at DE, or LB, or offense. There is a huge, glaring hole at DT, and the secondary could use some love. Unfortunately, this particular draft sucks balls for DT, especially in the Giants’ position at 25.

Before you cite last year’s LB issues as a sign that LB is a need, the Giants lost Barrett Green, Antonio Pierce, Carlos Emmons, Reggie Torbor, Chase Blackburn and Roman Phifer (a street FA) to injury. We had to bring back Kevin Lewis, and press camp fodder Alonzo Jackson into starting service in the playoffs. Only Nick Greisen stayed healthy all season, and his lone brightspot is currently testing the waters of free agency. (I really want him back in a bad way, as he’s better than a backup but not as good as a starter at all three linebacker positions.)

That’s a huge amount of injuries. Disproportionately so, and to try and carry nine good linebackers as insurance against that freak rash of injuries happening again would be counter-productive.

37

You Giants fans afraid of what would happen if Strahan were to suffer a career-ending injury?

38

Yes and no. He is still a great player, but honestly we’re as jazzed about Justin Tuck as we are Osi Umenyiora. (Both third round picks, incidentally.) Strahan’s biggest contribution last year, and probably for the remainder of his career, was in grooming Osi and Tuck for greatness. There is no substitute for tutelage by a hall of famer no matter how good your coaches are. Don’t get me wrong, I love Strahan and still love watching him play, but his successor is already on the team.

Justin Tuck was drafted specifically to take over for Strahan, and has played amazingly well when he’s gotten into the rotation. This season I foresee each game having Strahan and Tuck swapping out every other possession until the fourth quarter, when Strahan will get the majority of snaps. (With Osi playing the majority on the other side, being young enough to carry that load all game.)

Quite honestly, I eagerly anticipate the long partnership of Osi and Tuck. For an example of how explosive Tuck is, during the Chargers game in week 3 last season, Ladanian Tomlinson took a handoff on his own goal line and found daylight, sprinting down the sideline for the endzone.

Sixty yards into his sprint, he was dragged down from behind by Justin Tuck.

39

I thought it was a loaded question when I asked it.

You lose a badass lineman and of COURSE you’re going to get hurt for it.
Depth is a good thing to have. I’d think that overall depth might be more important then having a superstar.

40

Again, yes and no. Losing Priest Holmes didn’t exactly kill the Chiefs rushing game last year.

But I strongly agree with your point about depth. I’ll take depth over superstars all day long.