NFL Draft 2013

The Game Room
1

So the NFL Draft is a scant 16 days, 8 hours, 52 minutes, and 32 seconds away, and there is no thread about it yet, so I guess it falls to me. It’s been interesting watching how the draft went from something in a dark meeting room in a hotel that only really hardcore fans cared about to the three day extravaganza that is followed/commented on/dissected by tens of thousands of “experts”.

Some general thoughts of mine on this years’ NFL draft:

  1. This is one of the worst years for QB talent I can ever remember. Each and every player has major issues and question marks, and none of them, to me, looks like they’ll ever develop into stud QB’s in the NFL. Of course this is the NFL, so you know teams are going to draft them, but I’m not really sold on any of these guys as first round talent.

  2. The OT position is outstanding this year. I don’t think any of them are up to Matt Kalil, but Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, and Lane Johnson all have a chance to go in the top 10, and there is a lot of nice depth out there in guys like Justin Pugh, Terron Armstead, and Ricky Wagner.

  3. I really like the talent and depth at the running back position in this draft, which is why I hope the Packers don’t grab a RB in the first round. With the recent devaluing of the RB position in the draft, I think there will still be starting caliber talent available in the 3rd, maybe even 4th and 5th rounds. I think Mike Gillislee, Zac Stacy, Johnathon Franklin, Ray Graham, and Chris Thompson (if healthy), could all be important parts of their teams’ running game and they may be available later.

  4. There is no doubt in my mind that no matter what happens, people will praise the Patriot’s draft. They could select my dead grandma in the first round and some talking head will say that it’s a great value pick and Bill Bellicheck is a draft guru.

  5. The NFLPA is really dragging their feet on HGH testing, which could be a plus for guys like Marcus Lattimore, Chris Thompson, Brandon Jenkins, and other players who are coming off major injuries. I’d be much more willing to draft an injury risk this year than after they start HGH testing.

  6. The Packers are my team. If it weren’t for a horrible couple years of injuries, they’d be in the outstanding position of not having a lot of needs to fill in the draft. As it stands, I’d like to see them come away with starting caliber D lineman, a safety, and a center in the first three rounds, then grab one of the running backs I like later in the draft. I think Ted Thompson is one of the best drafters in the NFL, so I think maybe I’ll trust him more than my own half assed assessments.

Finally, here is my yearly list of “My Guys”, “Your Guys”, and Best Names.

My guys:

First Round

Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon - athletic freak with versatility and high upside.
Star Lotulelei, DT/DE, Utah - could be dominant.
Matt Barkley, QB, USC (late 1st round) - almost everything you want in a QB … except arm strength, which is kinda a big deal.

Second Round

Margus Hunt, DE, SMU - My man crush needs to show he has a great work ethic. Big Estonian man with a great motor on the field. Very raw, but great athleticism.
Quinton Patton, WR, La. Tech - doesn’t have the measurables, but is a very good receiver.

Third Round

Terron Armstead, OT, Ark Pine Bluff -I loved him as a prospect, but now he seems to be almost overrated.
Johnathon Franklin, RB, UCLA - shorter, but solid, quick feet, one cut and gone.
Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama - versatile and talented from a huge program.
Fourth Round

Marcus Lattimore, RB, S. Carolina - if doctors clear him, he’s well worth the risk.
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - developmental prospect who needs work, but could develop into a starter.
David Quessenberry, OL, San Diego St - versatile and talented, but may not be ready for the NFL.

Fifth Round

Leon McFadden, CB, San Diego St. - may be too small, but is a good coverage CB.
Keith Pough, LB, Howard - dominant at a small school but questions about speed of the NFL.
Mike Gillislee, RB, Fla - fun to watch, is small and dancy, but skilled and low mileage.

Sixth Round

Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Fla St. - coming off injury could be a great pass rusher.
Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt - short, but tough, solid runner.

Seventh Round

Earl Wolffe, S, NC State - gets burned way too often, but has nice upside.
Chris Thompson, RB, Fla. State - coming off torn ACL. Think Darren Sproles.
Ray Graham, RB, Pitt - another talent trying to come back from injury.

Your guys:

Geno Smith, QB, WVU - give me Landry Jones in the 4th over Geno in the 1st. Faded badly against good teams.
Jarvis Jones, OLB, Ga. - great production, nice athlete, but health issues and inability to get off blocks concern me.
John Jenkins, DT, Ga - fatass who doesn’t work hard enough.
EJ Manuel, QB, Fla. State - unless you commit to the read/option, he’s all but worthless. I don’t see the hype.
Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tenn. - I’m torn on him, but too much Josh Cribbs and not enough Jerry Rice. Intriguing size/speed, but lack of production puts him in the second round max for me.
Tavon Austin, WR - too tiny for the NFL. Track guy who can make slower players look silly, but I don’t think he’ll succeed in the NFL. And he’ll get crushed.
Barkevious Mingo, DE - Great name, overrated player.

Best Names

Bacari Rambo
Barkevious Mingo
Jeff Tuel (Tool)
Bjoern Werner (The Germanator)
Blaize Foltz
Carrington Byndom
So, who is your team, what do they need in this draft, and who do you like?

2

The Lions look like they’re taking some defensive end in the draft, with Ansah, but that could also be a smokescreen. I think you need to take BPA with that pick, unless someone wants to desperately move up to pick.

About quarterbacks: I think it’s good that we’re finally seeing them move into a normal economy with the rest of the picks. Far too often, quarterbacks get taken high because of scarcity, which makes some sense, but crushed your salary cap. I see the Raiders doing that this year with Geno. I don’t doubt that he can’t be a good NFL quarterback, I just doubt that pick that high for it.

3

I really hope they go with Milliner or Fisher (whichever is there). Ansah is too much of a “project” for me, and there are rumblings that Werner may fall to the top of the 2nd.

4

There are too many damn defensive linemen in this draft. I’m really having trouble keeping track of them all in a basic sense, let alone trying to scout them out.

My team is the 49ers. I’m still working on my second-annual draft guide I write for my co-workers, three of whom are season-ticket holders. The team needs a safety or two and defensive line depth, which is awesome for this draft. With 13 picks left after already trading two for players, Trent Baalke has all sorts of ammunition to trade up or trade for future picks.

I’ll have a fuller write-up later, but for now my draft crushes are Datone Jones, DE, UCLA, and Jon Cyprien, S, FIU.

5

The Packers need a safety, so I checked out Cyprien. I think he’s fine, but I really don’t see the early to mid second round grade he seems to be getting. I saw way too many missed tackles (mostly because he launches himself and either doesn’t wrap up or they break his arm tackles) and I have concerns about his speed in the NFL and his over-aggressiveness in biting on play action.. He certainly shined against lesser competition, but I’m not sold that he’ll transition all that well in the NFL. Fourth, maybe third round, but I don’t see him as the second best safety in this draft.

6

Chargers fan, and very intrigued by their position at #11. People seem to be panicking that the big 3 left tackles may all be gone by 11; but if they are, that just means someone like Dee Milliner or Star Lotulelei has dropped to them, and we need corners and DTs too. Seriously - we started an undrafted rookie at left tackle game 1 last season, whoever we start there this year is gonna be a step up.

Also, for the first time in years I don’t have the slightest clue as to how our team plans on attacking the draft. I had a pretty good handle on AJ Smith, but I don’t know anything about Tom Telesco. Should be very interesting.

7

There are loads of very GOOD players available, on both the offensive and defensive lines, but not many players who are going to EXCITE fans.

The most intriguing player to me? Well, health is the wild card here- but IF he’s fully healed, Jarvis Jones is the most exciting guy who’s likely to go in the first round.

8

This is an all-time year for name guys. You mentioned some great ones, but the list goes deeper.

Star Lotulelei
Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Manti Te’o
Margus Hunt
Cornellius “Tank” Carradine
Khaseem Greene
Kiko Alonso
B.W. Webb
Dayne Crist
Zac Dysert
Tino Sunseri
Caleb Terbush
Knile Davis
Latavius Murray
Isi Sofele
Ace Sanders
T.J. Moe
Omarius Hines
Philip Lutzenkirchen
Jake Stoneburner
Kurt Hammerschmidt
Demetrius Guice
Manase Foketi
Treylek Gilleo
Omoregie Uzzi
Izaan Cross
Jomarcus Savage
Toben Opurum
John Youboty
Momo Thomas
Cole Zwiefellhofer

Look at that!!!

9

Also:
Oday Aboushi
Menelik Watson
Stansly Maponga

And these guys who (almost) share names with people in the league:
Mike Shanahan
David Bass
Ryan Griffin
Josh Johnson

And musicians:
Marc Anthony
Zach Brown

And all these darn guys with initials for names, especially T.J.:
A.J. Francis
A.J. Klein
C.J. Anderson
C.J. Fiedorowicz
D.J. Harper
D.J. Fluker
D.J. Swearinger
J.J. Wilcox
P.J. Lonergan
T.J. McDonald
T.J. Johnson
T.J. Moe
T.J. Barnes
T.J. Bryant
J.C. Tretter
J.T. Floyd
B.W. Webb
D.C. Jefferson

10

I used to do a lot of draft “scouting”, watching videos, reading reports, I was really knowledgable about the draft. Last couple of years I just can’t get as into it as I did. I guess it’s hard to maintain any sort of enthusiasm for football as a Browns fan. Although this would be the year to be hopeful I guess, with pretty much everyone changing.

Based on uninformed half-assed knowledge, I think I want Dion Jordan the most. He’s intriguing. But the Browns painted themselves into a corner and pretty much have to take Millner if he’s there - they have no real starting secondary right now. Why they’re being so stingy in FA with the most money in the league is puzzling to me. Banner won’t sign a guy who’s over 28 it seems, even as a stop gap. Kerry Rhodes is an obvious pickup for example considering the Browns can’t even field 2 starting safeties right now. The CBs they did sign are #4 and #5 type guys.

So I have to wonder if their strategy is based around counting on Milliner being there, or even, ugh, trading up for him. I get the impression he’s not even that good - best CB in this draft, sure, but not the prospect that say Patrick Peterson or Joe Haden were.

11

There’s now sudden talk of the Lions trading up with the Eagles, which is crazy talk to me.

12

I was just starting to do some scouting on the top QBs as part of my first post when I started this thread. Well! Until that project is finished, I’ll give some thoughts here.

• The Eagles are my team, and they don’t have any glaring needs thanks to bringing in so many free agents since the beginning of the league year. That isn’t to say the team is full of great players, but they have a good enough option at every spot on the roster. There isn’t any one spot that is such a chasm as to be a liability. That gives them a ton of positional flexibility when it comes to the draft. And couple that with a new coaching staff and (relatively) new front office and you have a situation that is pretty much impossible to project.

I can’t really see anyone in the top 5 who could revamp the face of the team, so I guess I’m hoping the team can trade down. The value won’t be there as in years past, but I think that is mitigated by the opportunity cost of the player you’d be giving up being lower than in years past.

• I said in January that I thought Fisher would end up better than Joeckel (and thus the top OT in the draft), so he was one of my guys. But now that he’s shot up the draft boards, I don’t know if I can really claim him. I don’t think anyone else has stood out to me, but I haven’t seen a whole lot yet.

• When Dion Jordan started getting mocked to he Eagles over and over, I watched a couple game cutups from him. I came away extremely unimpressed. It isn’t possible to make that word bold enough.

Take the Stanford game last season (the first game I picked, completely at random). The first time I saw him make a pass rush move, of any kind, was in the middle of the 4th quarter. The first time he comes within an arm’s length of the QB comes with 2 minutes left in the game (the closest he got). He was better against USC (he even got a couple QB hits!), but he still didn’t once beat a blocker one-on-one. For a guy who is supposed to be an elite pass rusher, he was gobbled up by bored looking o-lineman play after play. If, as a pass rusher, you can’t beat anyone one-on-one, you don’t deserve a top 5 pick, let alone a top 200 pick. I’m really scared of this guy. I hope that he was doing amazing stuff that I just didn’t notice because I’m not a scout.

13

A lot of mocks have my Bengals taking Cyprien at 21.

14

Along with that, Jordan’s production as a pass rusher wasn’t all that impressive. He only had 4 sacks all year, which isn’t impressive in the least. And you’re absolutely right, outside of a quick arm slap and the bull rush, he didn’t show off many pass rush moves at all.

But watching that Stanford game, I saw a guy who, for all his rawness as a pass rusher, wasn’t asked to rush the passer all that much. For a good majority of the game, he was either doing contain for the read/option, dropping into coverage, or playing the run. I only saw about 10-12 plays where he was given the job of “go sack the QB.” On those plays, I saw a couple holds, a few double teams, and an offense bent on stopping him. Only about 6 where he was asked to beat a guy one on one. I’m not so sure those 6 plays are indicative of his ability in the future.

On the second play here, he basically throws a 6’1" 205 WR away like a rag doll. At the 46 sec. mark, he simply blows by the RT forcing a incompletion. At 1:45 he gets off a double team to chase down a running back.

You certainly have a point, too often he simply gets pushed past the pocket, and he rarely stunts or uses a myriad of pass rush moves. But he’s not been used as a traditional DE, or even a traditional 3-4 pass rusher. He’s only been a defensive player for a couple years, and he’s completely a tweener (which works both for and against him). His versatility, I think, is a huge plus for him, but I also think his athleticism and motor are huge too. With a guy like him, I’m willing to look past the lack of production or traditional role and try to project him in the NFL. I think with a flexible, creative Defensive Coordinator, he could be a stud in the NFL. He could also wash out, like many tweeners before him. He’s definitely high risk/high reward, and I’d certainly need to know more on how hard he works, how much he studies, and how much more bulk he can and is willing to add, but I still love him as a prospect.

15

Dion Jordan reminds me too much of Aldon Smith to dismiss. If I were picking in the top 10, I’d be happy with Jordan, Milliner or Floyd.

16

Since the Cardinals have to play Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick twice each year for the foreseeable future, I can see them taking Jordan to try to help defend against them - especially if a tackle that they like is not still on the board at 7 (though after doing a bit of reading and watching a few videos, I think I would take Fisher, Joeckel or Johnson at OT for the Cardinals and the only way that one of them shouldn’t be available is if someone trades past them I think).

17

Mock draft 5.0 is up now on ESPN, and quarterbacks are rocketing up the boards. This is starting to get to be a clusterfuck.

18

IIRC, both Kiper and McShay usually have horrible mocks.

19

For shits and grins, I checked out our SDMB mock draft from 2008. In that, the Chiefs would have ended up with Matt Ryan, the Bears with Rashad Mendenhall, Joe Flacco would be on the Vikings, Dan Conner would have been a 49er, Limas Sweed would have gone at #11, Jordy Nelson would have been a Buc, Chris Johnson would have been the second round pick of the Colts, and Jamaal Charles went in the 3rd round to the Lions. The NFL would be a vastly different place.

20

I like the Rams psotion at 16 and 22 in this draft. I would like them to go some combination of OL and S with these two picks. I am good with Vaccaro or Cyprien at safety and either Warmack or Cooper at Guard. I could also see a WR at either of those two spots but Patterson has questions and with Allen turning in a 4.71 40 speed at his pro day, Austin is the only real contender unless both S and OL options are gone. I could also see a RT like DJ Fluker at 22.