NFL Draft 2013

The Game Room
21

I like participating in mock drafts, but they’re next to worthless for prospect analysis. And they’re not even interesting to read if your team picks later in the first round. I prefer reading Top-100 lists or Big Boards, particularly if the site has legitimate scouting reports linked to the names.

Speaking of which, anybody want to share their favorite sites? I like CBSSports.com, NFL.com, and NEPatriotsDraft.com for prospect profiles. DraftTek.com has a pretty good breakdown of positional fits (3-4 vs 4-3 defenses), but not much individual reports. I just found DraftNasty.com, which seems particularly harsh on prospects, which is good, but unless you pay you can’t see everything.

22

I’m a big fan of Draft Breakdown because it has cut up players game tapes. It only takes about 6-10 minutes to look through a full game tape. They’re not complete enough to have every game, but you can get 2 or 3 per prospect (the higher rated, the more tape generally), and get an OK idea how they look in isolation. Not really a fan of their prospect ratings and mock drafts (I too like CBSSports for that), but it’s a quick way to find some tape on guys I’m interested in.

23

I used to read ESPN exclusively, but I switched to CBSSports after ESPN went to a pay-for-exclusive-content format. Fuck that shit!

24

I just read a USA Today article about Ziggy Ansah and all of the work he’s put in to learning to be a DE.

I hope the Lions avoid him like the plague. They cannot afford to miss by gambling on a guy with tremendous upside but no track record. Stafford and Megatron will only be great together for so long, and I think a top-tier OT will do more for making them (as a whole team) successful than an unproven DE can.

25

Hmm, never heard of it.

26

I like Great Blue Draft Report http://www.gbnreport.com/index.htm. It has a good top 250 list (eventually) and good position lists. It also has links to reports to individual workouts and other relative links…

The site is a bit clunky, but their ratings have been more accurate over the last 20 years imho than most popular websites.

27

It looks like Star Lotulelei has started climbing back up boards after that heart condition scare from the combine. I’ve seen a few mocks now with him going to the Eagles at #4. I guess the thinking there is that since Chip Kelly obviously values versatility in his players, and Star can play several spots along the line. This is especially interesting for a defense that will probably play a 3-4/4-3 Under hybrid. So I went to draftbreakdown to catch a couple games.

• He wasn’t impressive at all against Arizona. It’s an adjustment to watch a Nose in the 3-4 because you have to understand that his role is very defined and it isn’t always to make the play himself. But even so, he looked invisible in the run game (Arizona opened up gigantic, gaping holes time after time after time in that game). I didn’t see him cause any pressure against the run, let alone the pass.

• Again, the NT doesn’t always post gaudy stats. I get it. The most troubling part was how Star would cut off pursuit of a play before the runner was reasonably corralled. He looked downright lazy at times. Arizona was clearly not his best game. I can’t believe he’d be a first round pick based on that game alone.

• Against USC, Lotulelei had some “wow!” plays early in the game. He jumped a snap, forced the Center backwards like the guy weighed 150 lbs, then dropped on the fumbled snap before anyone realized what was happening. Incredible quickness, power, and awareness. He had some other strong moves showing some power, and he was much stronger and dedicated in pursuit against the run in this game. He had one lateral pursuit that was particularly impressive for chasing down the RB and preventing him from getting to the edge.

These plays early in this game show what he can eventually be. And it’s very enticing.

• The problem I see is that, if he’s expected to play Nose, he doesn’t seem to do anything at all against double teams. Again, I get that the majority of the time his job is just to absorb. But even against single man blocks he doesn’t show me much. It’s very troubling that he seems to get pushed off his spot very easily, especially against single man blocks (he was routinely handled 1-on-1 in this game after the first quarter, especially when USC went primarily single-man against him in the second half). I don’t know if he was primarily trying to rush a single gap, but when he tried to anchor and play two gaps, he was invisible. Runs would often go directly to him and he would end up completely unaware. I lost count of how many times the RB went right at him and Star was not only not in on the tackle, but not even in on the tackle attempt.

If the Eagles want him to primarily play NT, I’d hate this pick. He just doesn’t seem to be an impact guy (and I admittedly could be missing the impact things he did at NT, I’m no scout) there. But the impression I got is that he could develop into an impact guy in a 4-3 line. I’ll be interested to see how he turns out, considering the impression I got. I admit I feel a little stupid for putting this many words into a fringe top ten pick at an unsexy position.

Edit: Oops! Missed the important part. My prediction is that whichever team takes Star gets a guy who starts 8-10 years in the NFL but never makes a Pro Bowl. Not good enough at #4, but a solid pick in the 10-20s, right?

28

Looks like the Bengals are close to signing James Harrison. Ugh. There’s so much for me not to like about this if it happens. He’s old. He’s slow. He’s a Steeler. He’s played in a 3-4 his entire career. He’s a domestic abuser. His greatest weapon, his head, has been fined away from him. He’s a penalty machine. The Steelers cut him and then refused to resign him for the vet minimum when he essentially begged to come back and play for them. He’s a douchebag.

What’s not to like?

29

I kind of want to see that, because I want to see what Pitt fans have to say when Harrison’s dangerous style of play is turned against the Steelers. I think it would be hilarious* if Harrison knocked Roethlisberger out for a few games.

*Yeah, I usually don’t laugh at injuries. I have no such compunctions about rapists or domestic abusers.

30

I am interested to see what happens to Lawrence Okoye from Great Britain. He was ranked 5th in the world last year at the discus at the age of 20, qualified 4th for the Olympic final and then had a very disappointing day in the gold medal round. Prior to that he was in the junior ranks of a pro rugby team. He picked up the discus to the point at which he made an Olympic final in two years. He was due to go to Oxford to read Law and deferred his placement to go after an Olympic place.

He’s taken a flyer on entering the NFL and done some of the regional combines. For starters, he’s never played any football, so right there, he’s looking at UFA status. Nevertheless, the raw tools are impressive - he’s 6 feet 5, 300+ lbs, can run a 4.8 40 and a sub 11 100m. There’s not a bit of fat on him. His measureables in the jumps at the combine were creditable. He has quick feet - you have to if you’re going to throw a discus. And he’s played rugby at a high level (albeit at schoolboy), so is not shy of contact.

He’s got the odd curious newspaper article over here for this. We were looking at him becoming an Olympic discus champion (generally discus throwers mature in their 30s) but he’s reasoned that if you come into it when you’re 30, he might as well give the NFL a shot now. He’s clearly an intelligent and driven man. No one might take him - but I wouldn’t be averse to my team taking a chance on him in the 7th, teaching him how to rush a QB and seeing what happens when he’s had some time learning.

31

I am too. I kinda like the stories of the players who are new to football and come from places where football isn’t played at all. He’s also gotten a fair amount of press here for his nice performances at the regional super-combine.

32

Hard to say what the Buccaneers will do because the Revis sweepstakes are ongoing. I imagine if we don’t get him we’ll use the saved 1st round pick on a corner (hopefully Desmond Trufant; I always wanted us to draft his brother).

All the mocks have us taking taking Taivon Austin, which is nuts. Corner is a position of glaring need, and wide receiver isn’t (though we do need a slot guy).

As a general rule, even the most astonishing physical measurables don’t portend a good NFL player. American football is way too complicated for most people to pick up without having done it for years. There’s nothing in any other ball sport (or at least any of the ones played in the UK) that compares to the process of “learning a playbook”. Hell, there’s no such thing as a playbook in other sports; my elite public school rugby team had two set pieces.

Granted, there are a few people who go to the NFL without any college football experience, like Antonio Gates, but even those guys invariably played at the high school level.

33

My question is can he play mean and dirty?

34

Rumor has it Jimmy Haslam has instructed the Browns to draft F. Lee Bailey in teh first round.

35

I don’t know, I still think we could trade down with Miami, pick up a second round pick and take Ira Sorkin at 12.

36

We’re only 4 days and change away from the first round of the draft. Some random thoughts:

Seems like the Bucs are going to trade their first rounder (and maybe more) to the Jets for Darrelle Revis. A bit of a risk with his injury and the big contract they’ll have to pay him, but now it looks like the Jets will have two first round picks to play with. I have no doubt they’ll fuck it up somehow.

This year’s NFL draft has great depth, but very little predictability. The mock drafts I’ve seen and heard are all over the board and nobody seems to know who is worth taking with which pick and what teams want to do. Should be fun.

DJ Hayden has just flown up draft boards recently and now may be a first round pick. Huge leap from “almost dead” to “first rounder”.

A lot of people I listen to are speculating QB’s may drop like crazy. With so many teams trying to take care of the position in free agency (Raiders got Matt Flynn, Cardinals got Carson Palmer, Bills taking Kevin Kolb, Chiefs getting Alex Smith, etc.) it may be that they agree with me that it is a kinda weak QB class. Still, it is the QB position and there is depth to be had at other positions, so I’d wouldn’t be shocked if there were teams willing to reach for Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, EJ Manuel and maybe Ryan Nassib in the first round. Some teams r dum.

Finally, it sure is quiet in here. Has the NFL draft fallen off in importance?

37

I don’t think the draft has fallen off at all, but rather the opposite. I think there’s just way too much coverage. Is there any reason to discuss things when ten different talking heads have all made the same points? It’s hard to have a new angle because, with so much coverage, pretty much all the credible angles have been covered.

One interesting thing I’ve read/heard recently is how Dee Milliner is falling down boards and how he may not have ever been that high on actual NFL draft boards to begin with. This brings up the interesting point of “draft value.” Why is it considered “value” to draft a player that falls down in the draft (for a reason, obviously) when the valuation of the player was from the media itself?

If I say that an apple is worth $1,000 and you buy it for $10.00… boy! What great value! Never mind that the apple was never worth $1,000 and certainly isn’t worth $10 now. There is so much information about the draft out there, and yet, most of it is built upon complete fabrication. And the results are graded against the fabrication, by the fabricators. I find this fascinating. Especially since we don’t seem to care that we never hold our experts accountable to their complete contrivances.

I have wanted to take the top ten QBs and do a minor scouting report on each, based solely on my watching some tape as an admittedly uninformed “scout.” But, things have gotten suddenly busy around here, so I only have four finished (and the four are those primarily being mocked to the Eagles, hence the priority). I’ll write what I have up now, maybe it’ll be worthy of some discussion.

38

Similarly it seems like Mingo has moved up as Milliner has fallen and lots of rumors linking him to the Browns. Aside from having an awesome name, what has the guy done? He’s had like 12 career sacks playing on the LSU defense. I get that Dion Jordan at least has that crazy athleticism, and his lack of production as a pass rusher can be somewhat explained by all the different ways they used them, but I’m not seeing what makes Mingo deserving of such a high pick. He seems like a regular DE on a strong defense that never actually managed to produce.

39

I think the Dawg Pound would take to a guy named Barkevious.

When Milliner stated how much he would love to play opposite Joe Haden, that sent up red flags for me. It sounded like a top 15 guy trying to talk his way into the top 10.

40

My favorite Eagles blogger did a really nice post on Mingo here now that he has risen up the boards to become a potential Eagles’ target. Definitely worth a read, and gives an impression that Mingo could be a hidden gem. Well, as hidden as a potential top ten pick can get, I guess.