NFL Draft - 2021

The NFL draft is a little over a week away. After an unprecedented year of shortened/cancelled seasons, opt outs, and lack of gametape the already difficult job of scouts and GM’s will be even more difficult with this years draft.

Each year I produce a list of “my guys” (guys who will meet or out-perform their draft positions) and “your guys” (guys whom won’t). I’ve had some hits (Kevin Byard/Kirk Cousins) and misses (Patrick Mahomes was a “your guy”). But while it’s not always heavily researched, it is fun.

Here’s my lists for this year:


1st Round

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Peneii Sewell, OT, Oregon

2nd Round

Terrance Marshall, WR, LSU

Najae Harris, RB, Alabama

3rd Round

Rashod Batemon, WR, Minnesota

James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati

4th Round

Tommy Togiai, DI, Ohio State

Walker Little, Stanford, OT, Stanford

Dillon Radnitz, OT, N. Dakota State

5th Round

Cameron Sample, DE, Tulane

Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

Demetric Felton, RB/WR, UCLA

6th Round

Quinn Meinertz, G, UW Whitewater

David Mills, QB, Stanford – draft a QB every year.

7th Round

Tuf Borland, LB, Ohio State

Richie Grant, S, UCF

Kenny Nwangwu, RB/KR, Iowa State


Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State

Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

Kadarius Toney, WR

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama


Chuba Hubbard

Tommy Tremble

Hunter Long

Tutu Atwell

Whop Philyor

Trey McKitty

Racey McMath

Tuf Borland

Dillon Stoner

Will Fries


5 QB’s in the first 10 picks is insane, and very helpful to smart teams who don’t chase the elite QB dream. Give me Kyle Pitts/Peneii Sewell and Davis Mills over Trey Lance or Zach Wilson anyday.

I am a very “Best Player Available” draft advocate, but if Jerry Jones completely ignores his team needs and ends up drafting Kyle Pitts or a WR, I’m going to laugh and laugh and laugh.

I don’t understand why the Niners gave up so much to move up to #3 in this year’s draft. With so many unknowns and question marks about the season and the way their team is built, it seems like desperation. And the Niners shouldn’t be desperate.

Jaylen Waddle is 5’10” 182 lbs. Rondale Moore is 5’9” 180. Not everyone is Tyreek Hill. Most are Tavon Austin

This just might be the year people realize Jon Gruden is incredibly overrated. PFF has the Raiders as the worst team in the NFL at drafting in the first round. This offseason’s gutting of their offensive line, overpaying of Kenyan Drake, and not helping their horrible secondary, are big negatives. Hopefully their draft will be too.

Thoughts? Any guys you love? Any guys you hate? Let’s hear from you!

Agree on the QBs. I’ll be surprised if more than two are anything other than mediocre QBs. I looked up the history of Ohio St. QBs in the draft, and it is abysmal.
I am always leery of people like the Alabama QB, who spent college behind linemen who will be NFL regulars, throw to WRs who will be NFL regulars, and hand the ball to a RB (or RBs) who will probably be good NFL RBs. Those QBs usually have 5+ seconds to find an open receiver, and with the pedigree of receiver on the team, there will be an open receiver.
I am anxiously awaiting Mel Kiper’s updated draft prediction, version 2,527,497.

You had to have made at least one of these up. It reads like a MST3000 riff.

“Brick McHugeLarge!”

:rofl: :rofl:

Or, a Key & Peele sketch:

Hot damn, I love a good funny name sketch - thanks for that!

I’m betting it’s 5 in the first 6 picks.

Here’s hoping the Bears trade up to get one.

Pretty sure ownership has taken the future wallet away from Pace. Hence the Dalton signing.

My guess is that Washington stays away from a QB this year. One year with Fitzmagic and fill a bunch of other gaps

What do you all think will be the biggest surprise in the first round? It would absolutely shock the world if Lawrence wasn’t the #1 overall pick or if the Jags traded out of that spot. I think we can safely say that won’t happen.

But what are the chances that the Jets draft someone other than Zach Wilson? How sure are we that they love him and view him as the #2 QB? How disruptive would it be if they broke convention and took Fields or Lance? Or if they poached Jones from San Fran?

Similarly, we’ve all sort of accepted that the 49ers traded up with the intention of taking Mac Jones. In spite of the fact that prior to that trade the consensus amongst the bloggers was that Jones was probably going in the teens somewhere. What if they pick Lance or Fields? Does it change much?

Kyle Pitts is the clear cut darling of the draft and people have suggested that any of the teams in the 4-7 range would be thrilled to have him fall. In any other draft Pitts might be a top 3 pick. Any chance the Jets take him? Does someone trade up to 4 or 5 to take him?

If Justin Fields or Trey Lance slip out of the top 6 how intense is the feeding frenzy for teams scrambling to trade up? Would either the Lions or Panthers be willing to move down? How crazy would circumstances need to be for one of these guys to be picked outside of the top ten?

Other than Sewell and Pitts, is there any other non-QB that a team might really bend over backwards to grab in the top 10? There’s some great WRs but there’s also a bunch of them, so I kinda doubt Chase or Waddle will be worth packaging multiple picks for.

What’s the highest that QB6 could come off the board where the team doesn’t get mocked for reaching?

Who’s the really fast guy that can’t play football who the Raiders will probably take?

Which meathead team takes a RB in the first round?

While it would be a shocker if Jacksonville doesn’t take Lawrence I think if the first 3 teams take QB’s as expected the disruption would be minimal. I would think that the Jets have considered the possibility of Lawrence not being picked first, but it is the Jets.

After being all but glued to Zach Wilson in every mock draft ever, I think the Jets surprise everyone by drafting either Mac Jones or Justin Fields. Part of that is my own distaste for all the Wilson hype (he’s an injury prone Johnny Manziel without the drugs/alcohol problems. I think you could have done as well against his competition and with his O line), but teams lie all the time. I think the Jets have been lying about Wilson.

Last year there was a glut of closely ranked OT’s and WR’s to pick from, and each had a guy I didn’t expect to be the first one drafted (Andrew Thomas beat out Wirfs and Wills and Ruggs beat out Jeudy and Lamb [thanks again Jon Gruden!]) I think that happens again this year with Waddle (or maybe even Toney) being drafted before Chase or Smith. Some GM’s get enamoured with “their guy” (and their own ego) and will overpay to make it happen.

None. That’s the great thing about the “you need the QB you like most” thinking that some fans/analysts have. Since QBs are so precious, there is no price that is too high, no draft position that is such a reach, that they wont justify their teams’ pick. Kyle Trask at 15? Fine. Just make sure you tell the fans he’s your guy. Kellen Mond at 20? He’s got great size and an NFL arm, so that’s fine.

Shaka Toney from Penn State? Jamin Davis?

The Bucs.

Bateman doesn’t last until the 3rd round. I’ve seen him mocked to the Bears in the first (which I hope like hell doesn’t happen).

Oh hell no.

Davis Mills at #52 to the Bears.

Honestly, I’m thinking Mills at 20 might be the more likely outcome.

A few weeks ago he was a 5th rounder. Now he’s consensus 3rd, which means he’ll probably go off the board in the 2nd. I would not be shocked (but would be pretty pissed) if Pace took him with the 20.

Brace yourself then. I’m certainly not suggesting it’s a good idea. But we might be settling for Book in the 5th otherwise.

I’ll probably get over it, as long as he doesn’t trade Washington a 3rd rounder to move up one spot. :roll_eyes:

I just need a quick second of your time:

Is it possible to fuck up early picks in the NFL draft as badly as the Packers and Brian Gutekunst did last year? You waste resources to trade up in the first round to draft a developmental player with a 3rd round grade that, if everything goes well for your team, will never see the field for you. And, in doing so, you piss off your Hall of Fame QB, which now means you’re having trouble renegotiating his contract and can’t clear space under the salary cap to sign players. As if that wasn’t fucked up enough, you use your second round pick on the most replaceable position, RB, when you already have an All Pro on your team who you end up giving a big contract, wasting more resources at a position you already have set. Then you draft a glorified fullback, a position that doesn’t really fucking exist in the NFL anymore, and plan to “swiss army” the guy when you have already put a lot of resources at the TE position. And he doesn’t see the field. In all my years, I’ve never seen a bigger waste of the first 3 rounds of an NFL draft.

Maybe, just maybe, the late round picks will develop into starters (Runyan looked OK and I have high hopes for Vernon Scott) so the entire draft isn’t a waste, but boy, I am still furious with Gute for the debacle that was the first three rounds last year.

Whew. Glad to get that out of my system. Now more productive thoughts:

Going 26-6 over the last two seasons is a good indicator that the Packers have a darn good roster. Losing twice in the Conference Championship game is a good indicator that they need a great roster. Here’s where the Packers need to go from good to great, and some guys I’d like to see in a Packer uniform after the draft.

Inside Linebacker – Not a priority position for the last decade, the Packers have been getting by with mediocrity for awhile now. Undrafted Khris Barnes, while a cool story, isn’t even replacement level, and Ty Summers isn’t much better. There is hope for Kamal Martin, but he’s an injury risk. Cupboards pretty bare and its clearly the worst position group on the Packers. Give me Zaven Collins early, Monty Rice in the middle rounds, and/or Tuf Borland very late.

Offensive Line – The Packers lost one of the best centers in the NFL in Corey Linsley to free agency. They value versatility in their O-linemen, so switching starters Elgton Jenkins or Lucas Patrick to center could happen. But somewhere along the line, they’ll need some depth at center and tackle. Give me Walker Little in the second, Landon Dickerson in the third, and/or Trey Hill late.

Cornerback – Jaire Alexander is shutdown corner on one side of the field, but the Pack have been throwing draft resources at the other side for awhile with no luck. NFC Championship Game goat (as in scape, not greatest) Kevin King is back on a one year contract, but neither him nor Chandon Sullivan in the slot, are great. Give me Greg Newsome II in the first, Tay Gowan in the third, and/or Shakur Brown later.

Defensive End – Another position that is good, but not great. NT Kenny clark is a stud, but Dean Lowry and Tyler Lancaster are serviceable but not great Newcomer Kingsley Keke could be very good though. But another big body in the middle would help immensely. Give me Alim McNeil in the second or third, Tommy Togiani in the third or fourth, and/or Ta’ Quon Graham late.

Wide Receiver – Get me a stud or forget it. The Packers have the games best in Davante Adams and a slew of serviceable guys. MVS is good at the “go deep quickly and hope he catches it” and Allen Lazard can get you yards in the middle of the field, but a stud WR could really, really help. Get me Terrance Marshall or Elijah Moore and be done with it.

How about your favorite team? What needs do they have and how would you like to see them filled?

Just in case you’re not all sick of me talking about the Bears … my dream would be to trade our first rounder for a 2 and a 3, giving us four picks to address what I see as our four biggest needs, in this order (with guys likely to be available):

CB: Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State
QB: Davis Mills, Stanford
OT: Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa
WR: Tamorrion Terry, Florida State