2023 NFL Draft - The Chicago Bears are on the clock

The Game Room
1

The WAY too early NFL Draft thread for 2023. In an absolutely heroic showing, the Bears have won the 2023 draft.

2023 Draft Order

  1. Chicago Bears, 3-14
  2. Houston Texans, 3-13-1
  3. Arizona Cardinals, 4-13
  4. Indianapolis Colts, 4-12-1
  5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos, 5-12)
  6. Detroit Lions (via L.A. Rams, 5-12)
  7. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-11
  8. Atlanta Falcons, 7-10
  9. Carolina Panthers, 7-10
  10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints, 7-10)
  11. Tennessee Titans, 7-10
  12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns, 7-10)
  13. New York Jets, 7-10
  14. New England Patriots, 8-9
  15. Green Bay Packers, 8-9
  16. Washington Commanders, 8-8-1
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-8
  18. Detroit Lions, 9-8

The remaining 14 picks 13 picks will be decided once the playoffs are complete. The Miami Dolphins won’t be picking in the first round due to the Brady tampering/Flores fiasco.

The Bears claimed the 1st pick in what turned out to be a shocking set of events. I didn’t get a chance to actually watch the Texans-Colts game but it certainly seemed like a wild one.

The Texans got up to an early lead 17 - 7 at the half. Then the teams exchange TDs in the 3rd to make it 24-14 before the Colts run off 17 unanswered points to take a 31-24 lead with 3:30 to play. Things aren’t looking good for Lovie and the Texans. They don’t look much better after the 2 minute warning when the Texans are stalled at midfield and facing 4th and 12. But they get a miracle conversion for 30 yards. The next series is even worse, landing them in a 4th and 20 situation from the 28 and then Davis Mills connects for a 28 yard TD heave which went through the hands of a Colts DB (knock it down!). Lovie unzips and pulls out giant set of Orange and Navy painted cojones and goes for 2 and the win, Davis Mills is unstoppable. Texans win…and lose the 1st overall pick. Lovie is fired by the Texans before the team is finished showering up.

Matt Eberflus on the other hand, sits Justin Fields with a hip “injury” for the final game and trots out Nathan Peterman in the finale. When Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook look bound and determined to shit the game away in the first half, Flus yanks Peterman and throws in Tim Boyle! The gambit backfires when Boyle leads the Bears to a TD which draws the Bears within 10 at the half. Flus corrects his mistake and has Peterman back out there to start the 2nd half. The Vikings turtle up in the 4th giving the Bears a shot to close the gap, but Flus spends the entire second half playing QB roulette to make sure no one gets into a rhythm. This, folks, is how it’s done.

Really wish they’d have cut to the Texans game instead of making us watch the end of the Bears game…

I’m mainly starting this thread to talk about the Bears options here. Things couldn’t really have shaken out any better for them. Looking at the 8 picks following the Bears, I think at least 6 of them will be seriously looking to find a QB.

Chicago Bears - likely happy with Fields.

Houston Texans - Davis Mills is not a long-term answer and will probably have a completely new brain trust looking to make a big change.

Arizona Cardinals - Kyler tore his ACL and won’t be ready for week 1, that might be all the cover leadership needs to draft his replacement in spite of that silly contract.

Indianapolis Colts - People think they will go for Derek Carr, but fans have to be tired of rolling out retreads at QB. Saturday’s replacement will be stuck with Matt Ryan’s cap hit one way or another, so I’m not sure they’ll be writing another big check for a veteran.

Seattle Seahawks - Probably happy to stand pat with Geno. I don’t think anyone sees him as a future Super Bowl winning QB but they won’t mortgage the future to move up. That said, he’s a UFA in 2023.

Detroit Lions - The Lions are the least likely to make a move. Goff has played better than anyone could have hoped for, and things are pointing in the right direction. I don’t think they view him as a franchise cornerstone, but he’s making big money through 2024. Plus they aren’t sending a pile of picks to a division rival (it’s a plus for the Bears that this is the only divisional opponent in the top 17).

Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders are done with Derek Carr. McDaniels probably wants a Brady-esque QB to run his system. They will definitely do something big at the position.

Atlanta Falcons - They can’t run it back with Mariota. Ridder didn’t show out much in his playing time. Still, I doubt they’ll trade up here unless they absolutely fall in love. But…this is another team with questions at QB, so you can’t rule it out.

Carolina Panthers - Maybe they’ll hang onto Darnold but he’s a UFA and wasn’t exactly great. He was marginally better than he was in NY but it’d take a pretty generous person to think he can grow beyond being a placeholder after 5 seasons in the league. They may have a new HC and have been in QB limbo for a long time.

Further down the list teams like the Titans, Jets, Commanders and maybe even the Packers will be looking for QBs.

Beyond that, 2022 was the weakest QB class in years and I think a lot of QB-poor teams were hoping to bide their time for the 2023 draft class. The 2023 class isn’t elite, but most people put Bryce Young as a clear #1. That fact makes the top overall pick even more valuable than if there was a mush of 3 or 4 guys that people couldn’t make their mind up about.

Long story short, the Bears have everything set up to execute a trade for a boatload of picks to jumpstart this rebuild. Sadly, they don’t have their second rounder (#32 overall) because of the regrettable Chase Claypool trade but time will tell how painful this ends up being.

Probably the ideal outcome would be for the Texans to package the 2nd, 12th and a handful of middle round/future picks to move up one for Young. If it were a video game, they’d then package the 2nd overall pick to someone who wanted Stroud and more future picks…but let’s not get too crazy.

2

I’ll be shocked if they don’t draft a defensive lineman here.

3

Shocking 1st round picks are sort of the Seahawk’s thing.

4

Used to be.

Their last draft was pretty predictable. They received good grades from draft analysts because each pick made sense. And it worked out well for them; most of their rookies contributed, some were crucial pieces (particularly their new OTs and their RB who became the starter) and one even made the Pro Bowl.

So it looks like the strategy of “always do what nobody thinks you should do” could be a thing of the past.

5

I’ve seen a few sources say that the Colts will pick CJ Stroud out of Ohio State. I think I can live with that.

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I’d say that anyone aligning players to teams at this point is talking out their ass. First, up until this week everyone expected the Texans to have the first pick. That means the Colts would almost certainly be stuck settling for the second guy. Also, the QB draft order could change a lot once the pre-draft process happens. Stroud for example could shit the bed in interviews. Lastly, the Colts will probably have a new HC by draft day so his preference will drive things a lot.

7

Had the Rams won last night, and finished 6-11, would they have fallen below the Raiders in the draft order?

Certainly the Lions were rooting for the Rams to win. If they had (and assuming the Lions-Packers game ended as it did), then the Lions would be in the playoffs. The Rams’ loss keeps the Lions out of the playoffs, but may give them a slightly better draft choice. It would be ironic if the player they pick propels them to success over the next few years.

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Goff definitely confused the situation. Mostly crap with a flash or two of excellence, for a year and a half, then for the second half of this year he looked top 5 talent, results, and leadership. But he totally earned next year without competition in my mind.

My Ranking with a blind eye to who may or may not be available.
1.DB
2.LB
3. Big Post-up type possession WR( They got a lot of 1st downs on questionable to dangerous passes that lucked out in the last 8 games, that will regress to the mean).
4. OL(Maybe I am forgetting something, but it seems to me they got lucky avoiding OL injuries this year. They had a good, but not spectacular group, but they all seemed to be there all year healthy and at the same good level. Which I attribute much of their second half success too. One of the biggest factors in a middling team in the level of attrition in the trenches, and they got lucky there, I don’t count on that always happening.)

9

The Cardinals GM and Coach are both out. Unclear if this will help or hurt Kyler’s standing with the team. I had assumed that Keim+Kliff were the only people in the league who truly believed in Kyler as a franchise guy, but then I read some noise that Kliff was totally done with him. Kliff getting the axe could signal ownership choosing to honor their investment in Kyler over the front office’s wishes.

In any case, in the context of the draft the Cardinals are now a total wildcard.

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Considering where the Seahawks and Broncos are, I wonder if there is consideration for Seattle this year that they get Denver’ 1st and 2nd round next year. Do you get a DL this year if there is a great crop next year? Is it this year or next to get a QB? etc.

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That’s a pretty interesting strategic question. Were I a GM, I’d like to think I’d be a BPA guy. This year you take the absolute best talent on the board regardless of position, scheme fit, or roster. You do the same next year. But that’s a really difficult bit of dogma to stick to when you’re hearing it from all sides.

I’m not quite as dialed into the college pipeline as I used to be, but my initial impression is that this is a pretty good (but not great) QB class. It’s a fairly weak Edge and WR class. I don’t really know what 2024 looks like.

My other GM philosophy I’d want to stick to is drafting a QB every single year. If you don’t have an anchor guy at the position, you draft one really high when you can. After this year, I don’t think the Seahawks can expect to see another pick this high again. So even if they resign Geno and make him the nominal long-term starter, they might still be best served as an organization to draft a guy in the 1st if they love him. There will be bad press and there will probably be locker room drama, but if you project Will Levis to be the next Justin Herbert, you take him anyways.

As a side note, I would fucking love it if the Bears drafted Hendon Hooker in the 3rd or 4th round to be Fields back up. We shall see where he lands on draft boards, I have no doubt the meatballs would kill the Bears for that type of pick.

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Reportedly that’s how John Schneider operates. And the boilerplate answer to any question regarding why someone was drafted by Seattle has been that it was the highest-placed person on their draft board available at the time.

That being said… When you are putting your draft board together, and ranking folks, would you not consider the position at that point? If you desperately need a QB, or cornerback, or WR, or pass rusher, or center, or whatever, then would you give greater consideration to players in those roles? It seems like common sense to me. So I think that the “best player available” can also be somewhat based on your team’s specific needs too.

“We really need a new wide receiver. It’s a coincidence that the top 10 players on our board are receivers.”

:laughing:

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Said literally every GM ever.

This is the catch. A GM will never claim they reached for a guy (in spite of all outward signals they did), but they simply work around it by baking the bias into their supposed process. If you’re desperate for WRs your scouts are definitely going to fall in love with a whole bunch of college WRs. The only way to avoid it would be to somehow contract out the scouting so the evaluators are blind to the team they are scouting for.

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I was going to say that too, that’s not just the boilerplate for Seattle, that’s the boilerplate for everyone. :smiley:

15

I don’t think Ohio State has produced a quarterback with a good pro career. At least not in my lifetime, and I am not young.

16

Justin Fields is off to a good start. It’s too early to say he has a “good career” because, well, he’s on the Bears which has the #1 overall pick this year. But he has promise.

Dwayne Haskins had a few good games, he was mostly a backup, but we’ll never know if he could have been successful because he was tragically hit and killed by a dump truck at age 24.

There hasn’t really been anyone else of late from OSU. Terrelle Pryor floated around the league for years but mostly on practice squads. Otherwise just people who didn’t make it in the NFL.

17

Bears’ legend Craig Krenzel.

18

I had to look him up. He played for one year where he had 3 TDs to 6 interceptions, a 46.5% completion percentage, and a 52.5 QB rating. He also only played in 6 games from what I can tell, and was a starter in 5.

He did win a national championship with the Buckeyes though. And he was 3-2 in the games he started for Chicago, which I guess makes him a “winning” QB?

19

Interesting quote from the Bears’ GM allowing the possibility they could draft a quarterback at #1. Either you trade back to draft pieces to put around Justin Fields, or you trade Justin Fields to draft pieces to put around whoever you take at #1.

What does this QB class look like? Any particularly great prospects?

I guess the Giants are stuck with Daniel Jones. He’s earned at least one more year, though he becomes an unrestricted free agent right after the season. I don’t know if they can franchise tag him before then, but if they can they probably will. Same deal with Barkley, I think.

I’ve been loving PTI this week with Kornheiser rubbing it in that Wilbon now has to pay attention to the draft because his beloved Bears have the top pick. Wilbon hates the draft so much.

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I don’t think it’s supposed to be historically great but there are a few really good ones, yeah. Better than the previous class at least.

Here’s an article:

Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are the two names I hear most often in draft chatter. I guess they are the two names most people are excited about. I suspect those are the two most likely to end up as starters, though who knows how successful they’ll be. The rest of the list seem to be questionable (some love them and some hate them), or projects/potential backups.

ETA: I don’t see Stetson Bennet listed. He’s the QB for Georgia, the team that has won the last two championships. But he’s a bit short (as in, maybe a bit shorter than Russell Wilson) and he’s not young. He’s 25 years old. I wonder if he’ll be a late round draftee like Gardner Minshew.