2023 NFL Draft Thread - Fair to middling

The Game Room
1

It’s a week until draft day. Players are making last minute visits. Agents and teams are telling reporters lie after lie. Everyone is great, and everyone is terrible. What a time to be a football fan. 32 fan bases are all the happiest and most optimistic they will get. Starting on Thursday the possibilities dwindle, and you’ll start talking yourself into some jamoke that you’ve never heard of, convinced he’s the keystone to the team’s championship run. Some amateurs may tell you that the day after the draft is peak hopium, they are wrong, every team can imagine having any player right now.

Draft Times

Round 1: 2023-04-28T00:00:00Z
Round 2 - 3: 2023-04-28T23:00:00Z
Round 4 - 7: 2023-04-29T16:00:00Z

Draft Order (as of 4/20/23)

Round 1

  1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago)
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
  6. Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams)
  7. Las Vegas Raiders
  8. Atlanta Falcons
  9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina)
  10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)
  11. Tennessee Titans
  12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland)
  13. New York Jets
  14. New England Patriots
  15. Green Bay Packers
  16. Washington Commanders
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers
  18. Detroit Lions
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  20. Seattle Seahawks
  21. Los Angeles Chargers
  22. Baltimore Ravens
  23. Minnesota Vikings
  24. Jacksonville Jaguars
  25. New York Giants
  26. Dallas Cowboys
  27. Buffalo Bills
  28. Cincinnati Bengals
  29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco through Miami and Denver)
  30. Philadelphia Eagles
  31. Kansas City Chiefs

Round 2

Summary
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago)
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. Los Angeles Rams
  6. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
  7. Las Vegas Raiders
  8. Carolina Panthers
  9. New Orleans Saints
  10. Tennessee Titans
  11. New York Jets (from Cleveland)
  12. New York Jets
  13. Atlanta Falcons
  14. Green Bay Packers
  15. New England Patriots
  16. Washington Commanders
  17. Detroit Lions
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  20. Miami Dolphins
  21. Seattle Seahawks
  22. Chicago Bears (from Baltimore)
  23. Los Angeles Chargers
  24. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)
  25. Jacksonville Jaguars
  26. New York Giants
  27. Dallas Cowboys
  28. Buffalo Bills
  29. Cincinnati Bengals
  30. Chicago Bears (from San Francisco through Carolina)
  31. Philadelphia Eagles
  32. Kansas City Chiefs

Round 3

Summary
  1. Chicago Bears
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis)
  5. Denver Broncos
  6. Los Angeles Rams
  7. Las Vegas Raiders
  8. New Orleans Saints
  9. Tennessee Titans
  10. Houston Texans (from Cleveland)
  11. Cleveland Browns (from N.Y. Jets)
  12. Atlanta Falcons
  13. New England Patriots (from Carolina)
  14. Los Angeles Rams (from New England through Miami)
  15. Green Bay Packers
  16. Indianapolis Colts (from Washington)
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers
  18. Detroit Lions
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  20. Seattle Seahawks
  21. Miami Dolphins
  22. Los Angeles Chargers
  23. Baltimore Ravens
  24. Minnesota Vikings
  25. Jacksonville Jaguars
  26. New York Giants
  27. Dallas Cowboys
  28. Buffalo Bills
  29. Cincinnati Bengals
  30. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco)
  31. Philadelphia Eagles
  32. Kansas City Chiefs
  33. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection)
  34. Washington Commanders (Compensatory Selection)
  35. Cleveland Browns (Special Compensatory Selection)
  36. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection)
  37. Las Vegas Raiders from Kansas City Chiefs through New York Giants (Special Compensatory Selection)
  38. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection)
  39. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection)

Round 4

Summary
  1. Chicago Bears
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. New England Patriots (from L.A. Rams)
  6. Denver Broncos
  7. Las Vegas Raiders
  8. Atlanta Falcons (from Tennessee)
  9. Cleveland Browns
  10. New York Jets
  11. Atlanta Falcons
  12. Carolina Panthers
  13. New Orleans Saints
  14. Green Bay Packers
  15. New England Patriots
  16. Washington Commanders
  17. Minnesota Vikings (from Detroit)
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers
  19. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Tampa Bay)
  20. Kansas City Chiefs (from Miami)
  21. Seattle Seahawks
  22. Baltimore Ravens
  23. Los Angeles Chargers
  24. Cleveland Browns (from Minnesota)
  25. Jacksonville Jaguars
  26. New York Giants
  27. Dallas Cowboys
  28. Buffalo Bills
  29. Cincinnati Bengals
  30. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco)
  31. Chicago Bears (from Philadelphia)
  32. Kansas City Chiefs
  33. New England Patriots (Compensatory Selection)

Round 5

Summary
  1. Chicago Bears
  2. Buffalo Bills (from Arizona)
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. Denver Broncos
  5. Cleveland Browns (from L.A. Rams)
  6. Las Vegas Raiders
  7. Cleveland Browns
  8. New York Jets
  9. Las Vegas Raiders (from Atlanta)
  10. Carolina Panthers
  11. New Orleans Saints
  12. Tennessee Titans
  13. Chicago Bears (from New England through Baltimore)
  14. Green Bay Packers
  15. Washington Commanders
  16. Seattle Seahawks (from Pittsburgh)
  17. Detroit Lions
  18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  19. Seattle Seahawks
  20. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami)
  21. Los Angeles Chargers
  22. Baltimore Ravens
  23. Minnesota Vikings
  24. Detroit Lions (from Jacksonville through Atlanta)
  25. New York Giants
  26. Houston Texans (from Dallas)
  27. Indianapolis Colts (from Buffalo)
  28. Cincinnati Bengals
  29. San Francisco 49ers
  30. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia)
  31. Kansas City Chiefs
  32. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection)
  33. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection)
  34. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection)
  35. Green Bay Packers (Compensatory Selection)
  36. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection)
  37. New York Giants (Compensatory Selection)
  38. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)
  39. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection)
  40. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Compensatory Selection)
  41. Indianapolis Colts from Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection)
  42. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection)

Round 6

Summary
  1. Kansas City Chiefs (from Chicago through Miami)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Houston)
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Indianapolis)
  5. Los Angeles Rams
  6. Detroit Lions (from Denver)
  7. New England Patriots (from Las Vegas)
  8. Jacksonville Jaguars (from N.Y. Jets)
  9. Tennessee Titans (from Atlanta)
  10. New England Patriots (from Carolina)
  11. Houston Texans (from New Orleans)
  12. Los Angeles Rams (from Tennessee)
  13. Cleveland Browns
  14. Los Angeles Rams (from Green Bay)
  15. New England Patriots
  16. Washington Commanders
  17. Detroit Lions
  18. Denver Broncos (from Pittsburgh)
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  20. Miami Dolphins
  21. Seattle Seahawks
  22. Baltimore Ravens
  23. Los Angeles Chargers
  24. Houston Texans (from Minnesota)
  25. Jacksonville Jaguars
  26. Houston Texans (from N.Y. Giants)
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (from Dallas)
  28. Buffalo Bills
  29. Cincinnati Bengals
  30. New York Jets (from San Francisco through Houston)
  31. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Philadelphia)
  32. New York Giants (from Kansas City)
  33. New England Patriots (Compensatory Selection)
  34. Minnesota Vikings (Compensatory Selection)
  35. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection)
  36. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection)
  37. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection)
  38. Washington Commanders (Compensatory Selection)
  39. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)
  40. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Selection)

Round 7

Summary
  1. Chicago Bears
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (from Houston through Minnesota)
  3. Las Vegas Raiders (from Arizona)
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. San Francisco 49ers (from Denver)
  6. Los Angeles Rams
  7. Atlanta Falcons (from Las Vegas)
  8. Atlanta Falcons
  9. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Carolina)
  10. New Orleans Saints
  11. Tennessee Titans
  12. Cleveland Browns
  13. Houston Texans (from N.Y. Jets through Tampa Bay)
  14. Las Vegas Raiders (from New England)
  15. Green Bay Packers
  16. Washington Commanders
  17. Los Angeles Rams* (from Pittsburgh)
  18. Green Bay Packers (from Detroit through L.A. Rams)
  19. Indianapolis Colts (from Tampa Bay)
  20. Seattle Seahawks
  21. Miami Dolphins
  22. Los Angeles Chargers
  23. New York Giants (from Baltimore)
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Minnesota through Denver)
  25. Green Bay Packers (from Jacksonville)
  26. New York Giants
  27. Dallas Cowboys
  28. New England Patriots (from Buffalo through Atlanta)
  29. Cincinnati Bengals
  30. San Francisco 49ers
  31. Philadelphia Eagles
  32. Kansas City Chiefs
  33. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Selection)
  34. Pittsburgh Steelers (from L.A. Rams – Compensatory Selection)
  35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Compensatory Selection)
  36. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)
  37. New York Giants (Compensatory Selection)
  38. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)
  39. Green Bay Packers (Compensatory Selection)
  40. New Orleans Saints (Compensatory Selection)
  41. Chicago Bears (Compensatory Selection)
  42. Houston Texans (Compensatory Selection)

Top Storylines

Chicago Bears trade the 1st overall pick to the Panthers. We have no idea who they plan to select. Seems like they had no idea when they made the trade either. Can the Bears trade down twice?

We might have 4 QBs taken with the first 4 picks. Seems almost certain we’ll have 4 in the top 10.

Top 5 QBs all have reasons to love them and reasons to doubt them.

  • Bryce Young - Basically micro Joe Burrow
  • CJ Stroud - Polished passer, not mobile enough, low ceiling
  • Anthony Richardson - Unprecedented athleticism and arm, limited experience and success
  • Will Levis - Prototype size and elite arm, but couldn’t win in the SEC at Kentucky in 2022.
  • Hendon Hooker - Big body, big arm, old, injured and gimmick system at Tennessee.

No prototype WRs or OTs. Plenty of depth and lots of productive guys, but the physical traits aren’t there.

Jalen Carter trying to crater his draft stock. Who is going to roll the dice?

Will Anderson might fall out the top 5!

So many great CBs.

Who does the thing where they draft Bijan Robinson in the 1st round and get laughed at?

Do the Seahawks draft a QB behind Geno? Do the Raiders draft a QB behind Jimmy G? Anyone else gonna surprise us with a QB?

The Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders have 12 draft picks. The Rams have 11 but 8 of them are after round 5, same with the Patriots but 8 are after round 4. The Bears, Seahawks and Chiefs have 10. The Packers have 10, but 4 of them ae in round 7. The Giants have 10 but 6 are after the 5th.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been traded yet. Lamar Jackson hasn’t signed a deal yet.

This one has the potential to be a wild one. Can’t wait.

2

CB looks pretty thick at the top. Probably be a run on TEs and DEs in the 2nd. Gonna be interesting.

3

Quick stream of consciousness.

I believe…
…Anthony Richardson should be the 1st overall pick. And I think it’s more likely than people think.
…Bryce Young will be a total bust. He’s gonna make Tua look like an Ironman.
…CJ Stroud is just a guy.
…Will Levis is actually going to be great. Go ahead and laugh, but if he falls outside the top 10 it’s a mistake.
…the Bears will not take a Tackle at #9.
…Zay Flowers is the best WR in this draft class.
…JSN is not.
…the Illinois defensive backfield was way better than I realized this year.
…Parris Johnson Jr. looks like any number of busts the Bears have drafted at OT over the years, please stay away Poles.
…Bijan Robinson isn’t nearly the prospect that Saquon was.
…Will Anderson will be pretty good, but he won’t be a gamechanger.
…Cedric Tillman would be a great get at the end of round 2.
…Lukas Van Ness is a super confusing prospect.
…Michael Mayer is a guy I’d love to have but not where he’s going to get drafted.
…Quentin Johnson is going to get overdrafted by 2 rounds because he’s the only non-midget out there.
…Rashee Rice is the bigger bodied WR you want to take a chance on instead.
…Zach Charbonnet is going to be terrible. He runs like a guy in a bad football movie.
…there will be more TEs drafted in the first 45 picks than WRs.
…Yaya Diaby is a delightful name to say.

4

As a Lions season ticket holder, I am nervous as hell they’re gonna take a chance on Carter at 6. The raw talent is there, but the Lions have a history of taking chances on character issue players that come back to bite them.

The good news is that Brad Holmes has shown an eye for drafting talent and finding guys in day 2 or 3 of the draft which is something that has been seriously lacking for decades.

I’ve seen alternate reports the Lions trade up to 2 or 3 and get Richardson, which is almost as crazy as the Trey Lance to Detroit for a third rounder and a bag of Better Made BBQ chips ‘rumors’ I’ve seen online.

Fun time to be a Lions fan, that’s for sure. Draft time is usually our Super Bowl and this year there’s actual hype around the team.

5

All the latest mocks have them taking Skoronski. Do you see Carter falling to them at #9, Poles trading back again, or drafting a different position (CB? WR?) altogether?

FWIW, my favorite scenario has them trading back and still getting Darnell Wright in the mid-teens.

6

Wait, what? Do you mean that you think he isn’t going to be nearly the player Saquon is in the NFL? As stated, unless we’re using some idiosyncratic definition of prospect, I’m pretty sure it’s just objectively not the case. Where’s the deficiency?

(I would not even contemplate taking him until about 25, so realistically would literally never draft him, mind you. But as a prospect I don’t see the issue).

7

I think it’s 50-50 (honestly, maybe more like 35-65) that one of the top 4 QBs is still sitting there at 9 and the Bears will trade back. That’s my best case. It helps that the Bears already likely negotiated with most teams for the top pick so they know who’s looking.

I don’t see the Bears taking Carter. Even if the character stuff is ignored, the effort stuff just won’t work with the HITS culture Eberflus is trying to build.

If the Bears are picking here it’s going to be BPA since we need help almost everywhere. It shouldn’t be a WR since any WR in this draft will be a reach at 9. Plus they made the trades for Claypool and Moote specifically so they didn’t have to reach on this class of twerps.

I actually think most likely is Edge, Tyree Wilson is the most likely option I think. Maybe Lukas Van Ness if Poles buys the upside. I won’t rule out CB either. It’s a deep class so waiting is preferred, but Witherspoon would really pair great with Johnson and could allow Kyler Gordon to play nickel where he might have a chance too be elite.

Never claimed it was objective. Mostly eye test. That said, there’s a big difference between Saquon’s 4.40 and Bijan’s 4.46 and 41” vert vs 37”. Saquon was also almost 20 pounds heavier. Production is similar, Saquon is a substantially better athlete.

That said, I’d have never drafted Saquon either. And history has proven that opinion right. There-year bell cows in college are a terrible investment.

8

I’m with you here. I don’t think we’re a strong enough team to be rolling the dice on a guy like that. Let the Eagles take him.

I’d be delighted but I highly doubt he makes it to #9.

9

Most mock drafts tend to agree. But I really think there’s going to be 4 QBs in the top 5 or 6 picks. Few mocks are projecting that. If 4 of the top 9 are QBs, then Carter and Anderson, you only need a couple teams to go WR or DB for Wilson to be there.

Also Wilson is a fairly unpolished prospect which makes the current top 5 consensus projection a bit of a stretch.

10

I really don’t have a clue what will happen in the draft usually have a much better idea even if one or two early picks are surprising.
I don’t see Richardson and Levis as top 5 picks but most of the mocks seem to have thenm there. This is particularly so for Richardson who looks like Lance did in 2021 except that Lance had accuracy as a strength. As a Seahawks fan I would have concerns picking him up at 20 but there is a lot of speculation we will take him at 5 or that he will be gone before then.

11

According to bleacherreport.com, the Colts are in love with Will Levis, but will be conflicted if CJ Stroud is still available at #4.

As someone who lives in Kentucky, and has watched Will Levis play (keep in mind: I have no inside knowledge, am not a scout, not a University of Kentucky fan, and only watched a handful of games), I’m not impressed. He seems like too much of a project with too low a ceiling to spend a 4th overall pick on.

I know there are negatives on all of the Big 4 QB Prospects, but Levis is the one I’m the least comfortable with. I’d much rather go with Young or Stroud.

12

The quarterback mix this year could almost have been created in a lab. Nobody’s perfect, depending on what your philosophy is you might favor any of the 4, and it seems like it would be impossible to come away from it feeling fully comfortable no matter where or who you pick. Imagine taking Stroud at 1 and then Bryce Young never makes a bad throw his entire career and Richardson is Lebron but at quarterback, or imagine 3 teams take mediocre starters and then Levis goes late and is Josh Allen.

I can think of a counter-argument to basically every take I’ve heard, and they all feel reasonable, but I have no idea what I actually believe is true. Most years it feels like I would love to be in the war room for one of these teams but this year I would hate it.

13

For whatever it’s worth.

  • Bryce Young (Alabama): 98 percent
  • Jake Haener (Fresno State): 96 percent
  • Will Levis (Kentucky): 93 percent
  • Jaren Hall (BYU): 93 percent
  • Clayton Tune (Houston): 84 percent
  • Anthony Richardson (Florida): 79 percent
  • Hendon Hooker (Tennessee): 46 percent
  • C.J. Stroud (Ohio State): 18 percent

I’m trying to determine if this is recency bias or not, but this feels like one of the most wide-open drafts I can remember. All drafts are generally wild after the first pick or three, but not knowing who the top pick is certainly adds something to the uncertainty. That said, uncertainty seems like the rule for this stuff.

One weird thing is that when you look at the way teams are clustered in the draft, there seem to be a ton of spots in the first round where teams with identical needs are clumped together. There might be a bunch of teams jumping up 2-3 spots to get ahead of teams they think have the same targets.

I’ve seen this comp a bunch and I really don’t see it. Lance played at NDSU and Richardson at Florida. Couldn’t be more different. Lance missed an entire season; Richardson didn’t miss any time. Richardson’s an all time athlete with a elite, elite arm; Lance’s athletic score is middle of the pack and his arm is just adequate. Lance was too cautious; Richardson will toss it up for grabs. These guys couldn’t be more different. They are just QBs with upside and some questions, but other than that they have little in common.

Justin Fields is a much better comp for Richardson. Richardson is bigger and faster, but Fields is more accomplished on the field. But from a skills and style POV they share a lot.

14

Quick thought experiment.

Imagine you’re the Tennessee Titans. You have the 11th overall pick and you probably need to think about getting a QB.
Option 1: Spend the 11th pick on the best remaining QB. Might be Richardson, might be Levis, might be Stroud.
Option 2: Send your 2nd and 3rd round picks to San Fransisco for Trey Lance.

Which way do you go?

15

Knowing what we know about Lance now of the Lance of 2021?
Going on what we know now, noone would consider taking Lance at 3 Lance is a known bust, the others as risks. With the knowledge of Lance ins 2021 (Raw but with great athleticism and a powerful accurate arm) he would still be a reach at 3 (everyone expected the 49ers to take Mac Jones) and could be available available at 11. I would stand pat and if all the options start to disappear think about trading up for the last available on that list.

16

Seems every draft we have the same “prototypical QB athlete” vs “Productive, athletically limited QB”. Daniel Jones/Drew Lock v. Kyler Murray. Josh Allen v. Sam Darnold. Trey Lance v. Mac Jones. Carson Wentz v. Jared Goff. Blake Bortles v. Teddy Bridgewater. This year, its Will Levis/Anthony Richardson v. Bryce Young/CJ Stroud.

This year, like most without a Joe Burrow or a Trevor Lawrence, there are reasons to like and dislike, every QB in the draft. With that being the case, the biggest mistake a GM can make, to me, is having a “my guy” and throwing massive resources to get them. Most consistent, good teams dont have to reach for one particular guy.

Either way, it will be interesting.

17

Joe Burrow had big “one year wonder” questions and he couldn’t beat out JT Barrett for the starting gig at OSU. He was skinny and didn’t have the strongest arm.

We tend to forget when there are questions about a guy who works out.

18

I honestly don’t know what it’s worth but 18 percent seems like a shockingly low score. Hopefully for whoever takes him, he’s got some kind of test-taking disability, or he just didn’t care about the test.

19

He’s not yet 23, he’s thrown 100 career passes, and he hasn’t been completely out of his depth. If any of the other 4 quarterbacks start the way Lance’s career has started, they will still be considered unknown quantities.

Take that one step further. How many examples are there of any type of team trading massive resources to take any quarterback in the top 8 or so and it not being a mistake? Vick would be one if that counts as “massive resources.” Off the top of my head, it seems to me like any other time somebody traded for a premium pick to take a QB, they were the mark. For the most part it seems teams that drafted the right quarterbacks either teams traded up for a pick not that relatively high, or they stayed pat with their own pick. Maybe a lesson there, my “Lance isn’t a bust yet” take notwithstanding.

20

The Chiefs traded a future 1st to go up and get Mahomes. The Bills traded two second round picks to move up 5 spots for Josh Allen.

Most QB draft picks are busts of one shape or another, whether you trade up or not. There is no recipe for landing a franchise QB.