Nfl draft 2018

The Game Room
1

We’re only 4 days away from the NFL Draft, so I figured I’d start a thread.

Like many other posters here, I haven’t done much research into this year’s draft. I find myself more interested in watching tape and developing opinions AFTER the draft takes place. That way I can see who the Packers draft and watch them rather than getting little bits of dozens of guys.

Of course, none of that will stop me from making my annual list of “my guys” and “your guys” for the 2018 NFL Draft.

My guys:

1st round

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. He is the type of QB I absolutely hate. A spread offense QB who takes advantage of shitty defenses to rack up huge numbers while also being a douchebag with off the field issues. Ugh. But I watched a bit of tape, and I do think he’s the best of the QB class and has a real opportunity to develop into a Russell Wilson caliber NFL QB.

Vita Vea, DI, Washington – A force on the interior, he has the versatility and strength to be a foundational D lineman in the Packers 3-4 defense.

2nd round

Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas – The best center in the draft, he didn’t give up a single sack his entire college career. Grab him high in the second and let him start for you for a decade.

3rd round

Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State – Wish he were a tad taller, but he runs good routes, has enough speed, and has been productive in college. I think he could develop into a solid #1 WR in the NFL, and would be great value in the 3rd.

Reshaad Penny, RB, San Diego State – Big, fast, can catch the ball, and has some moves. What’s not to like?

4th Round

Tarvarius Moore, S, Southern Miss – Athletic safety with wide range and great speed. Does well in both run support and coverage.

5th Round

Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond – Draft a QB every year. Lauletta is raw and without a strong arm, but he’s accurate, can move around well, and is smart.

6th Round

Parry Nickerson, CB, Tulane – Maybe too small, but is definitely fast enough to play in the NFL.

7th

Jordan Mailata, Whoknows, Australia – Has never played a single down of American football. But he’s 6’8”, 345 pounds and has great measurable at his pro day. Worth a swing here.

Your guys:

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming - One of the few guys I watched a couple games of tape on, and I’m surprised he’s being considered as a first round pick, let alone a top 5. While he’s got the arm strength and some mobility, his accuracy is for shit and he seems to panic under pressure. Many stupid, stupid throws. Think Jake Locker.

Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa – A lot of mocks have the Packers taking him in the first round. I hope not. While he certainly his a ballhawk, which is awesome, he’s had only one good year and is Deion-esque in his approach to actually tackling someone.

Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU – A projected first rounder who I think will max out as a nice possession receiver.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama – Playing for Alabama will always increase your value, but he’s not a top 50 player and shouldn’t be taken in the first couple rounds like he will be.

Ronald Jones, RB, USC – It all depends on when he’s taken. He’s darned fun to watch (earning comparisons to Jamaal Charles), but he’ll likely end up as a complimentary back rather than a full time back.

Favorite Names in the Draft:

Josh Sweat
Will Clapp
Equanimeous St. Brown
Hercules Mata’afa
Steve Ishamael
Will Dissly
Azeem Victor

2

These are all guys I like for the Bengals too, especially Ragnow and Moore. If Ragnow is there at #21, just don’t fart around Bengals…take him. Who cares if it’s a bit of a reach? It’s a direct need and the best player available for that position of need. For God’s sake, please not another WR in the first, or we’ll have to start calling Mike Brown “Mr Davis”.

Wait…that’s a good thing, right?

:wink:

3

Equanimeous is the best name of an NFL prospect since Peerless Price came out of Tennessee.

4

He sounds like he’d be in the Kentucky Derby rather than the NFL.

5

Does Kiper (and the rest of the Draft Gurus) ever go back and give themselves a grade on how they did?

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And destroy their own brand, and income stream? Whatever for?

7

Considering they come up with about 7,349 mock drafts, I don’t know how they would ever be able to grade themselves.

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They often go back and re-grade drafts and re-mock drafts based on actual performance. Of course they aren’t explicitly re-grading their own performance, but it’s implicit.

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It’s an excellent name, though his father seems to be trying to be the LaVar Ball of football (but is probably considerably less dickish).

Also, his full name is Equanimeous Tristan Imhotep J. St. Brown. His brothers (also wide receivers) are Osiris Adrian Amen-Ra J. St. Brown and Amon-Ra Julian Heru J. St. Brown.

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This is a huge draft for the Bears. Top 10 pick, team looking to turn the corner, looking for game changers on both sides of the ball.

Some quick unorganized thoughts.

Here’s my QB rankings:
Darnold >>> Mayfield >> Allen >>>>>>>>>Rosen>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jackson

The only guy I’d want on my team is Darnold, I don’t think he’s a transformative guy like Wentz or Luck, but I think he can be at least as good as Jameis or Carr. Stafford is probably his ceiling comp. I expect him to be durable and to be a good clubhouse guy. A lot will depend on where he lands, if he somehow ends up in Denver he’ll be very fortunate.

I think Mayfield has a chance to be Russell Wilson, but only like a 1 in 10 chance. It’s far more likely that he’s a locker room cancer who makes tons of terrible decisions on and off the field. Plus size really does matter with QBs. For as good as Wilson has been, he’d be 50% better if he were 6’4".

Allen is a classic combine guy. If I’m honest, the type of guy I usually get sucked in by. Being a combine guy isn’t always a bad thing, Wentz was a combine guy, Stafford was a combine guy, Cutler was a combine guy (say what you will, he wasn’t a bust). But the game tape is really really bad. You can blame the WRs if you want, but the DBs on the otherside were no great shakes either. Hell, I thought his Pro Day tape sucked…but the media raved, go figure. Love the arm, the legs and the size, and I do put some stock having played in adverse weather as well. Allen is a great dice roll in the mid-twenties ala Rodgers or at the top of the second like Brees/Carr, but he’ll go in the top 5.

Rosen makes no fucking sense to me. I see absolutely nothing there that says “first rounder” when I look at his stats, his game tape or his workouts. He was the 2nd worst performer at the Combine and it really wasn’t that close. He reminds me of Goff in a lot of ways, which is weird to say since Goff ended up being pretty okay last year, but his rookie season looked just like I expected it to entering the draft. I expect Rosen to play like Goff’s rookie season…but we’ll see if he’s got a leap in him. I’m skeptical, I saw a guy who folds under the bright lights.

Jackson…holy shit, what a mess. It’s hilarious all the teams in the mid-to-late first trying to talk themselves into him. Supposedly the Patriots like him…which sounds to me like some fake news floated to give another team the air cover they need to draft him. It basically short circuits the “reach” criticism because if the infallible Belichick liked him, then drafting him at 21 can’t be a mistake. He’s not DeShawn Watson folks. At best he’s Kordell Stewart, the Bears version. If the Patriots actually do draft him…well, then clearly time has caught up with that organization and it’s time to sell all your Pats stock.

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Targets for the Bears at #8.

Quenton Nelson - OG
This guy looks like a monster. I said this in the offseason thread, but I’m mildly torn. I think he could easily be BPA at #8 if he’s still there and we have a need, but OG is a tough position to invest that heavily in. We’ve got his OL coach now so there’s no question we’ll have the inside track on scouting. I see almost no scenario where you regret this pick, but can he transform a offense? If we draft him…I’m picking Jordan Howard in fantasy. What are the odds the Colts pass on him?

Tremaine Edmunds - ILB
It’s a position of need for us as well. I haven’t watched a ton of tape on him, but the mocks have pointed to him. ILB historically has been another position that isn’t considered a “premium” so that’s a question. On paper, he’s a freak. But I kinda think he should have been more dominant in college considering. Long, tall LBs have a habit of being hurt a lot too. The scouting reports point to issues in coverage, which is a huge red flag for a ILB in the NFL. But, if the physical gifts and pedigree are transcendent he could end up being another HOF LB for the Bears.

Vita Vea - DT
This may be considered a slight reach, but we have a question mark at the 5-technique opposite Hicks. Vea projects more as a 3-technique I think but he’s versatile enough to play anywhere across the front and a trio of Vea-Goldman-Hicks would be a terror. With Goldman often having durability concerns Vea would likely add an option at NT as well. I think it may be tricky to go with a DT before a Edge, but this would be a “safe” pick with a lot of upside.

Bradley Chubb - DE
I mean, this would be a dream scenario. Likely would require a trade up or else some utter insanity regarding the QBs+Barkley. Still, Chubb would be perfect for us. I hate the idea of giving up anything significant to move up, and I’m sure the fight for QBs will make the price to move up steep, but I suppose there’s a scenario where Barkley is gone for the Browns at #4 and they decide to get out. Hate, hate, hate the idea of giving away any picks.

Roquan Smith - OLB
I don’t really see this fitting with us but it’s been mocked often enough that it’s worth considering. Smith looks like a 4-3 Will to me, but he could perhaps be a OLB in our 3-4 opposite Floyd. A little undersized for that role but terrific in coverage. Great locker room guy but not a elite pass rusher. Pace thus far as really cared about measureables in the first round and likes to swing for the fences, Smith doesn’t fit that mold.

Denzel Ward - CB
We just spent a ton of coin bringing back Fuller and Amukamara plus they are giving Cooper another chance as a backup, so I find it hard to believe we’d grab a CB this early, but if you think Ward is the BPA you probably have to do it. Fuller popped in his contract year and I’m far from convinced he’s a long term answer, Amukamara has had injury concerns and is a great #2 CB, but a mediocre #1. Maybe Ward is the future and insurance in 2018. Ward’s a bit undersized and has a few holes in his game that indicate a better fit as a nickel which calls into question his draft grade, you don’t grab a CB who projects as a Nickel or FS this high. Dat speed tho.

Calvin Ridley - WR
I would have said there’s ZERO chance the Bears draft him a couple weeks ago, but then Pace went a fucked the goat on the Cam Meredith deal. So now there’s a opening at WR. Still, with all the FA additions and the return of Kevin White there’s probably just a 2% chance we grab Ridley. To be frank, Ridley simply isn’t that elite. I suspect he’ll be a productive player but he’s undersized and he’s old for a rookie. So what has to happen for us to draft him? 1. Pace has to love him, natch; 2. the QBs need to slip, meaning the other studs are off the board; 3. Pace decides that he’s going to triple-down on giving Mitch weapons.

Derwin James - S
Another popular mock target, but doesn’t make a lot of sense for our roster. Amos and Jackson are our 2 safeties and they are both on rookie deals. In order for James to start, one of those guys sits, and both those guys had awesome PFF grades for their respective ages. Depth is critical at Safety, but James isn’t a depth player, he’s an alpha. Picking him would be a long shot. It could happen if Pace just fell in love with the guy based on the player meetings, but this would be a luxury pick and we’re not in a position to make luxury picks. Our best bet is that Tampa or Indy fall in love with him and let’s one of the other guys fall to us.

Let’s see if Pace does something wacky and catches me off guard.

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Some other random musings about the Bears.

Wishful thinking for the second round:
OTs Kolton Miller or Mike McGlinchey slip to us in the second round. Really unlikely, but I’d hate to be gambling with Orlando Brown in the 3rd and we really need a OT this draft and the class is dismal.

CBs Josh Jackson or Mike Hughes last into the second. Slightly more likely than the OTs, but still far fetched. In spite of what I said above, we do need a contingency plan at CB.

WRs & DJs Moore and Chark are the second/third tier options at WR and would be useful selections in the second. Moore is the better of the 2 in my opinion and would make a amazing slot option underneath AR. These guys sliding is slightly more likely than the CBs, but still far fetched. EQ St. Brown in the 4th is probably more realistic.

One more thing…QB Luke Falk is interesting as a late round dice roll. No idea how many of these 4th/5th tier QBs actually get drafted, but I hope the Bears bring in another rookie to compete as a 7th rounder or UDFA.

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Maybe this year he’ll give up draft picks just to stay at #8.

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I hope he doesn’t. Nope because I think it would be a bad idea, but because I don’t want to hear the whining and counter-whining for the next 5 months. I really want him to go with one of the obvious choices.

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I don’t think you have much to worry about on the last three. I expect three QB’s to be gone by the time it falls to you. Then all da Bears would have to do is not screw the pooch.

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Any particular reason you picked the number 21 here, or was that just arbitrary?

And personally I don’t think Jackson is nearly as bad as you proclaim, and neither do a lot of other teams and draftniks.

Have you perchance ever looked at the video game-esque numbers the reigning Heisman winner has put up over the last two seasons? They’re beyond ridiculous, in fact, there aren’t many superlatives left in the English language to describe how ridiculously good.

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The mocks bore me to tears. Besides the guesses on the Shark MB, and the multitude of worthless vids on nfl.com, any good rundowns on what the real feel of the teams are?

18

No way Lauletta lasts into the fifth, he’ll be gone on Day 2.

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I’m not a Browns fan, but I’m interested in seeing how they approach having the 1st and 4th picks. With multiple top of the first round QBs available (Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, and Darnold) I think they should wait until the 4th pick before selecting a QB. If I were making the picks I would take Saquon Barkley at #1 and a QB at #4, Allen if he is still available, but Darnold would be a good 2nd choice. Instead I think they will take a QB at #1 and lose out on the chance to draft Barkley to the Giants. I can already see that happening, and in a few years when Barkley and the QBs they didn’t draft are having monster careers and the QB the Browns picked at 1 turns out to be a bust people will look back and wonder how the Browns screwed up another draft.

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I’d have a lot of problems drafting Barkley at 1. He’s a very good running back, but I don’t see him as a generational type of player that would make me comfortable taking him at 1. While I love his abilities as a pass catcher, the running back position isn’t that big of a priority and their career longevity isn’t great. With Guice, Penny, Michel, Chubb, and others all likely available later, taking Barkley 1 would be a huge reach. Fournette went #4 last year, and didn’t even average 4 yards per carry.

It will be interesting to see how it works out, though. If the Jets, Cards, or even the Bills fall in love with a QB prospect, the Browns could be in a position to get a fair amount of value, but I think they need to draft their QB at #1 and then see who falls to 4.