NFL Draft 2012

The Game Room
1

We’re less than two weeks away from the NFL draft. It is fascinating to me how much the draft has risen in prominence in just the last few years. It seems new websites are popping up every day and every idiot with a keyboard (hey, that’s me!) has an opinion that they need to share on players they’ve never even seen. Just how big the draft has gotten is astounding when I think about it.

There are a ton of storylines for every draft, but here’s the ones that I personally find fascinating this year.

  1. Andrew Luck. He’s been called the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning and he’s the clear #1 draft pick. I think he’s all that and a bag of chips, but I’m leery of starting him on such a depleted team. Still, I do think he’ll become an elite NFL QB.

  2. Redskins and RGIII. Daniel Snyder gave up not just the farm, but the farm, the tractor, the livestock, the workhands, and his entire family including his aunt in Sheboygan to move up 4 spots to grab RGIII. I think they way overpaid and that Mike Shannahan is a horrible fit for RGIII to find success in the NFL. They’re putting all their eggs in RGIII’s basket, and I’m not sure he’s worth it.

  3. How the hell did the 56th rated college quarterback (but he’s #6 in interceptions!) with less than two years starting experience become a possible #3 pick in the draft. I really don’t see the love for Ryan Tannehill, or his value as compared to Wheedon, Cousins, or the rest of the second tier of QB’s.

  4. Whose going to be the bust of the draft? Quinton Coples? Justin Blackmon? Morris Claiborne? At this point, I’d go with Tannehill if he’s drafted in the top 10, but I’m also not sold on Blackmon, who strikes me as a Michael Crabtree kind of receiver in the NFL. And I think Dontari Poe is going to be waaaaay overdrafted too.

  5. What “supersleeper” is going to the “Tom Brady in the 6th round” guy?

  6. What do you think your team needs to do in this draft? Who are “your guys” that you’d love on your team?

I’ll get into those latter questions a bit later, but I just wanted to kick off the 2012 NFL Draft discussion.

2

False start, on the thread.
5 yard penalty.

3

Mel Kiper made a terrific point about Tannehill this morning: the problem with a QB-needy team (say, Cleveland or Miami) taking a project QB high in the draft is that the team is then pushed into starting him even if he isn’t ready; and if he performs like a project QB, all of a sudden people are going to be ready to give up that much quicker.

My pick for disappointment-in-waiting is Brandon Weeden. The fact that he spent three years on the bench behind Zac Robinson, despite being several years older, says a hell of a lot to me. I wouldn’t take him before the 5th round.

4

Of course I don’t know. Probably Poe if he gets chosen in the top 20.
FWIW, here’s one guy’s calculationsof 1st Round bust percentages for the different positions:
OFFENSE
Quarterbacks have a 48% hit rate in the first round of the NFL draft.
Running backs have a 52% hit rate.
Wide receivers have a 36% hit rate.
Offensive Tackles have a 64% hit rate.
Guards/Centers have a 88% hit rate.
Tight Ends have a 77% hit rate.

DEFENSE
Defensive Ends have a 48% hit rate in the first round of the NFl draft.
Defensive Tackles have a 37% hit rate.
Linebackers hit at 69%.
Cornerbacks hit at 69%.
Safties hit at 58%.

Going by those numbers, the likely busts are the DTs and WRs. Good bets are cornerbacks,TEs, LBs and OTs. First round guards have the lowest bust factor, but they’re just guards.

5

Part of the problem there is that positions are not equally important: interior OL and TE are the highest because only the very, very best are taken in the first round.

But really, without knowing what his data set is or how he defines “Hit” and “Bust,” those numbers are kind of arbitrary.

6

Justin Blackmon: biggest bust.

7

I don’t like clicking on links either, but the writer does offers these definitions:
[INDENT]NFL DRAFT 1st round pick hit is classified as a solid starter or solid contributor. A first round NFL draft pick bust is a player no longer playing, injury riddled career, or buried on the depth chart.[/INDENT]

Those definitions don’t eliminate ambiguity. His data is from 2000-2008. The writer just seems to be another internet guy. Other studies I’ve seen come to different conclusions about bust ratios.

8

  1. Andrew Luck.
    I’m completely sold on Luck. I posted in some other thread I think he’ll have a Super Bowl ring before his career is over. The Colts still suck, so he might struggle for a few years.

  2. Redskins and RGIII.
    I’m impressed with RGIII. He’s smart and funny and easy to like. I’m not totally sold on his QBing, but I wish him well despite not liking the Redskins much.

  3. Ryan Tannehill
    The reason he’s valued higher than those other guys is that he looks the part. I watched some footage of his pro day and everything looked like a quality pro QB. Big, strong arm, carries himself well. He should sit for a few years due to the inexperience, but that might not happen if he’s drafted high.

  4. Whose going to be the bust of the draft?
    Blackmon might not be some stud WR, but he won’t fall off a roster (see Woods, Rashaun). I’d say Coples gets buried on the depth chart, and Tannehill will fail if pressed into action too soon.

  5. What “supersleeper” is going to the “Tom Brady in the 6th round” guy?
    Amini Silatolu is going to go early in the 2nd, a sleeper because not many have heard of him, but a second round guard isn’t going to sell jerseys.
    For some reason I like Nick Foles, and he’ll go in the 5th round.
    For position guys, I think Chris Owusu will be a stud wideout for somebody (until his next concussion. :frowning: )

  6. What do you think your team needs to do in this draft? Who are “your guys” that you’d love on your team?
    The 49ers don’t have many holes. Right guard and future center are probably the biggest needs. Wide receiver, too. Everything else is depth or luxury. I fully expect them to trade up in the first to grab a particular guy. Who that is, I don’t know. The guys I like are DeCastro and Fleener. I’m almost done with my 7-Round wish list, but I know those two guys are gold (red and gold, hopefully).

9

Any team enamored with Tannehill should throw in the videotape from his games against quality teams. The game against Oklahoma State, where he all but singlehandedly cost his team a win with 3 interceptions and was grossly outplayed by Brandon Wheedon. Or Arkansas, where he couldn’t get his team going to stop them blowing yet another lead, and where he threw 0 td’s and one int. Or Oklahoma, another 3 interception game for him, but this time with a 50% completion rate. Or Texas, another 3 int game with an even worse 40% completion rate. It’s all well and good to have 25% of your touchdowns for the season to come in one game against a bad defensive team or to be able to complete 90% of your passes against air while running around in shorts. But if he actually has to play against an NFL team? It could get very ugly. He certainly has upside, and he may develop into a very good player in a few years, but I think any team picking him in the top 10 are going to regret it.

When I think of Foles, I picture Forrest Gump, a somewhat athletic guy who is too slow in processing information and in throwing to make it in the NFL.

10

I’ve been resisting this thread because I agreed with MODALIZE that it’s a little too early to begin talking in specifics about the draft (this thing might be on page 8 before the draft starts) but damn it I can’t not spout off an opinion on this stuff.

As for a supersleeper, I too was going to mention Nick Foles. Maybe he doesn’t qualify as a supersleeper because Kiper and McShay have talked him up some as the mid-to-late round QB to watch but I think they are onto something with him.

Another guy that might surprise is Trulon Henry, a LB/SS/CB from Illinois. In the NFL he projects as a SS and his cover skills will make him very valuable. He’s got prototypical size and speed for the position and he’s put down some excellent tape. He’s Arrelious Benn’s half brother and he’s got more red flags than a semaphore convention but everything I’ve heard from campus says that he’s a hard worker and has transformed into an upstanding citizen. If he leaves behind the entourage, which is likely considering he’ll probably be undrafted, he could keep his nose clean. Personally I’d LOVE to see him in a Bears uni as a UDFA.

I’m already on record as saying Morris Claiborne is going to be a colossal bust as is Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins, it’s a really bad year to be looking for a CB in the first round. There’s a few guys I like in the mid to late round range, Chase Minnifield is at the top of that list, but the 1st round guys are bad news.

I think Blackmon is overrated but he won’t be a bust. A comparison to Michael Crabtree is pretty fair but I disagree with anyone who calls Crabtree a bust. Didn’t live up to the hype or the draft position, but in a league of Darius Heyward-Beys, Charles Rogers’, Chad Jacksons and Troy Williamsons calling Crabtree or Blackmon a bust is hyperbole.

11

Is there interest in a SDMB community mock?

12

Yup

13

Yessir.

14

I think it’s fair to say that if Blackmon doesn’t play up to his draft status, which is to say, a top-5 pick and the clear consensus receiver in this entire draft, that he’s a bust. I wouldn’t put him right with Charles Rogers with being a bust, however.

15

I took a little initiative and started a recruitment thread here: SDMB 2012 NFL Mock Draft - Recruitment Thread - The Game Room - Straight Dope Message Board

Everyone chime in with your interest and what team you primarily want to draft for as well as any secondary teams.

16

Bust is an over used term, coming in at 80% of your expected value isn’t a bust. It’s probably a bummer for a top 5 pick, but still not a bust or else you’ll have ti invent a new term to encapsulate the Leafs and Russells of the world.

17

“Massive disappointment”? I’m fine with labeling it something else, if you want. We could just leave it as “overrated” or “overdrafted”, I suppose.

18

Every year for a couple years, I’ve tried to create a list of “my guys” and “your guys”. “My guys” are guys I think will outplay their projected draft slot and whom I’d like to see on the Packers, and “your guys” are players I think will bust out. I’ve been right (Alterranum Verner), wrong (Roger Saffold), and everything in between (poor Derrick Locke and his neck, and Jamon Meredith and his sucking), just like the draft.

So, without further ado, here are “My Guys” ver. 2012:

1st Round

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - He’s been the #1 prospect for two years. I think he’ll be a stud in the NFL. It’s kinda hard to say he’ll outperform the #1 pick, but I really do think he’s got it all.

Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College - all he does is excel at playing linebacker.

2nd Round

Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford - I love me some Stanford guys. He’s not much of a blocker, but his speed and hands can make him a real threat in the passing game.

Jared Crick, DE/ Nebraska - I still have questions (was he only good because of Suh?), but I think he’d be a good 3-4 DE.

Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska - First round talent and production, but may be too small to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe a move to safety?

Kendall Reyes, DE/DT, U. Conn - Versatile, good athlete and could fit in the 3-4.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami - Dumb as a box of rocks and should have stayed in college another year, but I like his speed and moves and he’s worth a shot as a 2 down back.

Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers - Yes, yes, I know he had a bad 40 time at the combine. But he’s a good route runner, has nice hands, and is productive. Likely not a #1 WR in the NFL, but could become a very good #2.

3rd Round

Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma - Never really found a position in college, but, with proper coaching, I think he could be a very good rush linebacker in a 3-4.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State - project QB who could be a starter in the league if given time to develop. He’s a leader with good size, good arm, and smarts. Ran his own pro day, which I liked. May never tear up the league, but could be a solid starter with some upside.

4th Round

Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina - small school, versatile defensive back, questionable attitude, though.

Tom Compton, OT/OG, South Dakota - another small school mauler who excelled against bad competition. May not be quick enough to protect a blindside, but could always move inside.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma - Extremely productive WR who runs great routes. Coming off an injury will drop him on the boards, but he’s well worth a shot.

5th Round

Adam Gettis, OG, Iowa - Undersized for the NFL, he needs to bulk up and get stronger, but he plays well, is smart and versatile, and may have the athleticism to possibly develop into a solid starter in the NFL.

Senio Kelemete, OG, Washington - quick, agile guy who is too small for OT in the NFL.

Brandon Taylor, S, LSU - With the emergence of the TE position, I think safeties will become a prime position. Taylor was a solid piece to an outstanding college defense.

6th Round

Dale Moss, WR, South Dakota State - Outstanding size/speed numbers and a basketball pedigree makes this small school guy well worth a draft pick, even if he has very little experience actually playing football. Great project.
.
7th Round

John Brantley, QB, Florida - A complete out of the blue flier, but he has the size and arm strength you like. He’s a huge project (in part because of a messed up college situation), but certainly worth taking a shot at.

Cliff Harris, CB, No one - A self-centered dumbass who is just too talented to go undrafted. He’s a suspension/car wreck waiting to happen, but he had a great 2010 and, if you can keep him out of trouble, might become something special.

19

You know a guy who I think I too quickly dismissed and is really growing on me of late?

Russell Wilson.

If he were 6’3" I think he’d be the #3 pick by a far margin and we’d be talking about the greatest QB class ever. But he’s only 5’11", so I, and many other people, quickly dismissed him as not having a shot in the NFL.

I think I was wrong. Granted there aren’t any elite QB’s under 6’, but I think Wilson is special enough to find success in the NFL despite that. Drew Brees is only an inch taller and has had great success, and Wilson can be much more successful on the run and outside the pocket. And when I consider that teams are considering drafting a couple of guys on his O Line in the first and second rounds and that Wilson didn’t have any problems playing behind them, I think there could be something special about Wilson.

I’m not saying drafting Wilson in the first round, or even the second, but he’s certainly worth a shot in the 4th or below and maybe even the third. He may need some coaching, and even an offensive coordinator who is willing to move him around a lot if he becomes a starter, to ever be elite. But he’s got the smarts, arm strength, athleticism, and ability to protect the ball that makeup a great QB in the NFL. The height is an issue, but it doesn’t negate his skills.

Russell Wilson. My guy.

20

Well, it’s here.

At least the first round is here.

In another 11 hours or so that is.

Almost here.

Not quite here yet, but reallly soon.

I think.