NFL Draft 2013

The Game Room
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In response to Hamlet, no I don’t think the draft has lost any of it’s luster. I think the biggest issue that there just isn’t much new traffic in the Game Room (maybe the Dope altogether). The same people have been making the same points for a year now and we’ve run out of stuff to argue about, plus most of us are probably getting busier as we get older.

I know I’d probably have written fifteen 5000 word Bears posts this offseason in addition to crafting a league-wide breakdown of team needs and soliciting for 2 different SMDB mock drafts. My interest isn’t different, just my bandwidth.

So…that said, here’s a 5000+ word Bears pre-draft summary.

Overview
The Bears have a 2nd year GM who just installed a 1st year HC, OC and DC. Needless to say, there’s lots of uncertainty going around but also a fair bit of optimism that’s been lacking in recent years. This will impact the draft in several ways, the regime change is speeding the roster turnover as many older players are let go and Lovie’s guys are shown the door. Other than Urlacher this has mainly impacted roll players, but many of the older guys on the roster will be looking over their shoulder as this draft unfolds.

Guys They Kept
They had some big decisions to make on the roster this year, but the easiest one was to franchise Henry Melton. He broke out as a star last year and everyone expects good things for years to come. The Bears hedged a bit by not going all-in with a long term deal settling for a franchise tag. This is smart, DTs get hurt a lot and there’s at least some risk of Melton being a contract year type guy. A long term deal may be on the offing later, but for now the Bears are happy to keep a young stud.

A few less obvious moves to retain players occurred as well, notably along the offensive line as **Jonathan Scott **was resigned and **J’Marcus Webb **was retained. Both OTs finished the season as starters and will provide quality depth this year. The Bears retained a few role players on defense in Kelvin Hayden, **Nick Collins **and Zack Bowman.

Guys They Lost
The biggest news for the team and the source of the most angst has been around defections, whether it’s the team or the player pushing the move. **Brian Urlacher **going has gotten all the headlines and I’m still of a mixed opinion on it. He was a shell of his former self, but he was also not all the way back from injury. Could he have returned to 2010 form? Maybe, but at his asking price that would have still been a premium. Not sure the Bears handled it in the most tactful manner, but I think they made the right business decisions.

The Bears cut a bunch of dead weight, again on the OL. **Chris Williams, Chilo Rachal, Chris Spencer **and **Lance Louis **are all gone. Only Lance Louis can be truthfully called a loss, but coming off an injury we wasn’t worth competing for in the market. Louis was a Lovie pet project that presumably the current regime wasn’t as high on.

On defense there were other notable losses at LB with **Geno Hayes **and Nick Roach both finding work elsewhere, and in the secondary they said goodbye to DJ Moore, on the DL they let **Amobe Okoye **and Matt Toeania go. A few of these guys were overpaid by their new teams, so I’m not losing any sleep over any of them, but our depth took a hit.

**Johnny Knox **is officially done and the Bears have completely rebooted at TE letting **Kellen Davis **and **Matt Spaeth **go, both were salary pits so it’s addition by subtraction. Jason Campbell moved on as well leaving the Bears a bit more sparse at backup QB, not that Campbell showed anything good when he got on the field.

Still Waiting: Israel Idonije. Izzy is a guy I really want to see back, and frankly I’m shocked he’s not been claimed. Perhaps both sides are expecting a deal and are just waiting for the right time, but if I were a 3-4 team looking for a DE Izzy’s agent would be on my speed dial. The Bears run defense will suffer without him in the rotation and I like the potential of rotating him inside in the Dime.

Guys They Added
The Bears were far more active in FA than I expected. I suppose this is just conditioning from years of disappointment, but I also didn’t think they had the money to spend either. There were 2 big names added, **Martellus Bennett **and Jermon Bushrod. I love one and am less thrilled by the other.

Bennett is going to be a star at TE and that he’s a well rounded TE makes me all giddy, should really give Trestman the chance to be creative. Bushrod on the otherhand looks like a potential overreaction, based on what the other OTs on the market got Bushrod was overpaid. The stat geeks hate him and I can’t say I’d really noticed him much in NOLA. Kromer obviously vouched for him and hopefully they love his fit in the new system, but I have to wonder if him or someone better would have been available cheaper if they’d have waited a little. We shall see.

Elsewhere on offense, the Bears worked to give themselves a ton of flexibility. They added Eben Britton, **Taylor Boggs **and **Matt Slauson **for depth across the OL which frankly looks like a colossal upgrade over the guys they lost. Additionally they brought in Steve Maneri to be a blocking specialist at TE.

Defensively the Bears were no less active, but I’m less enthused about the results. Up front they added a few journeymen in Turk McMride, **Kyle Moore **and Andre Fluellen, all I hope are nothing more than camp fodder. In the secondary the Bears grabbed golden domer and local kid Tom Zbikowski.

Where things got really interesting is at LB, the Bears went out and grabbed what I view as a pair of steals with terrific upside in **DJ Williams **and James Anderson. Each guy is a fairly young starter playing under one-year prove-it deals for less than $1.5M. LB was a dire need and Emery turned it into a potential strength.

Summary
Looking at all this activity I think I have to say I’m pretty impressed with Emery’s work. I’m sure some of these players will disappoint, most are guys plucked off the NFL scrap heap so maybe most will be ultimately forgettable. But considering the Bears were one of the more hamstrung teams heading into FA I think this is a solid work. While maybe only 1 or 2 guys are real difference makers, the Bears were looking like a team with some gaping holes to address in the draft. Now, Emery can truly go BPA throughout and hope that he finds a superstar instead of a solid contributor at a position of need.

Next up, a position-by-position breakdown.

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I want to put some thoughts here about the top QBs because, of all the positions on the field, QB is the one I feel I understand the most in mechanical terms. I could give some thoughts on offensive and defensive linemen, but these would be more rudimentary (comparatively, I mean) because I don’t feel like I understand the complexities of the technique. I may still offer those thoughts, because making opinions public for the purposes of getting ridiculed in the future is so fun! Hi Jason Avant!

I watched several entire games for each player from draftbreakdown.com, and at least two games twice each. One caveat is: I’m just watching game tape. I don’t know anything about these guys outside of the film and I don’t follow college football enough to know how their college careers went. Maybe the single most important trait for any QB, and any player, is how they respond to criticism and coaching and how self-motivated they are in the film room. I can see mechanics but not personality. So I want a little slack if a guy turns out to be a lazy slob like JaMarcus Russell. Here are my thoughts between Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, and E.J. Manuel:

• Let’s start with Geno Smith, the consensus top QB in the class. I think the consensus valuation of Smith is that he’s not worth a top 5 pick, but will probably be taken there because of the importance of the position he plays. I don’t see him as a guy who can come in one year one and start and succeed because the most striking trait about Geno Smith is how bewilderingly inconsistent he is. He’s definitely going to need a year or two on the bench to iron out the inconsistencies to become a valuable starter. If you draft him in the top five, I don’t think you’ll be afforded the luxury of waiting.

As I watched, I would take notes on the good things I saw and the bad things, as quickly as I could. With Geno, I was stunned at how often the positives and negatives were contradictions of each other. He really can look exceptionally competent at one particular aspect of his game and then hopelessly lost at the same aspect on the next play. Even so, he has some tendencies.

Geno is very good at keeping a good base under his throws. He does that Peyton Manning happy feet thing where he’s foot tapping in the pocket, but it helps him keep a strong platform when he does throw. I noticed him often throwing on balance in the pocket and with his feet under him while rolling out. He keeps his eyes downfield and he moves pretty well within the pocket before he runs, so he can evade the rush very well and still make a throw (something that Michael Vick struggles with all the time). By this I mean that when he evades a rush, he doesn’t immediately tuck the ball and scramble. Smith’s mechanics are fine, which makes his scattershot deep ball accuracy very strange. Geno is really poor on downfield throws, and maybe that’s part of why so much of the offense was built on quick throws.

Geno is interesting because, sadly, he’s typecast as a mobile QB because he’s black. He’s not really a runner, and that message got out over the last couple months even after his combine numbers showed some excellent athleticism. He has the tools to be a hybrid QB that can run, but watching him run, he leaves a lot of yards on the field. He doesn’t have the runner instincts that Vick or Randall Cunningham had. As an aside, one of the things I’ve heard a few times about the Chip Kelly offense is that he doesn’t need a “running QB.” Rather, he needs someone who can run just enough to pick up 4 or 5 yards and keep the defense honest. Smith could do that, but he’ll never be a weapon, even with his athleticism.

One of the most important traits for a QB is the ability to read a defense and find the open guy. You have to be able to follow your progression, look defenders off their spots, and throw covered receivers open. I don’t think you can be a successful passer without being able to do those things. Vick can’t throw guys open. I’m not certain if Smith can because of the angle of television broadcasts, but it appears that he has this ability. Where Smith struggles is in his ability to run through a progression. He focuses on his first read too often and stares down receivers. Note, this is on plays without a designed quick hit to the first (and only) option. The good news is you can fix that, to a point.
**
Overall: **He’s too inconsistent to be counted on this upcoming season. If you draft him in the top five you probably don’t have the luxury to have him sit. That will likely ruin him. He will need a strong work ethic more than the other QBs will, to iron out his strange lapses. If Geno Smith is starting week one this upcoming season, he’ll be labeled a bust, and at best will be another Alex Smith. If he doesn’t, he’ll develop into a valuable starter who could win you some games. I would guess that he doesn’t make a Pro Bowl. I just don’t see enough in the vertical passing game to pile up the yards to gain the accolades.

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• Ryan Nassib:
Nassib is fascinating to me. I can’t wait to follow this guy’s career.

Firstly, Nassib’s throwing motion is awful. I’ve never seen someone have a really quick release and a really long windup simultaneously. It doesn’t even really make sense until you watch him throw the ball. He tends to drop the ball under his waist before bringing it up to throw, which elongates his motion. This will be a problem when Nassib has to fit the ball in a tight space–that extra motion will be the difference between a great completion and a defended pass. But once Nassib cocks the gun, his release is really quick, if too much of a shotput. It’s awkward and it reminds me of Philip Rivers. Actually, Nassib reminds me of Rivers a lot in general.

I love Nassib’s pocket presence and his downfield vision is excellent. You can see his progression and his eyes remain on the play and not the action around him. What really strikes me with Nassib is that he’s the most mature passer I’ve seen in this class by a mile. He uses dumpoffs and underneath routes when the deep stuff is covered. That maturity is rare in college QBs from what I’ve seen. Because of these traits, he’s the most likely to be able to succeed on day one this season.

Adding to his maturity is that he has the most tools in his toolbox of throws. By this I mean he has command of situational, utility throws, and he displays them often. He’s smart enough to know when to take something off (or maybe he just can’t put it on to begin with), when to add a little more arc, and when to throw on a line. Not just a laser vs. a fade, but multiple degrees between. He doesn’t always choose the right tool, but he has them. This shows, again, he’s more mature than the other QBs as a passer.

On the other hand he doesn’t have a plus arm. His weakness in his arm strength is apparent pretty quickly. The good news is that other QBs have overcome a similar weakness to become very good pros and stars in the league (see: Rivers, Philip). You can see that his passes don’t zip out of his hand. He’ll need to be really smart to overcome not being able to force the ball into tight windows. Fortunately, he seems very smart.

**Overall: **Nassib is one of those guys that “just makes plays.” I think he’s the most game ready QB that I’ve seen in this class, and I think he’ll be very successful because I tend to think he’ll have a head start versus the other QBs in this class because of his maturity. If he’s smart, and he seems to be, he’ll be able to maximize his potential. I think he has Pro Bowl talent and I would guess that he makes at least one.

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• E.J. Manuel
E.J. Manuel really stood out to me because it seemed like something very positive happened on every throw he made. He has a lightning release and a cannon arm and all the measurables. The ball explodes out of his hand and he throws the tightest spiral of the guys I watched. He definitely has the build and the tools to be a superstar, but his flaws are pretty significant too.

Here’s a great example of both: When E.J. Manuel throws a flat to a RB, the throw is almost always perfect. I mean perfect. Just the right amount of touch and always in front of the runner to give him a chance to catch the ball in stride moving downfield. Only someone who watched McNabb for a decade will appreciate how easy it is to screw up such a simple looking throw. This gives me the impression that Manuel has very good accuracy, and for the most part he does. But his accuracy falls apart when he’s under pressure.

Throwing under pressure isn’t easy, most QBs struggle. I just think Manuel struggles more than most. He really needs to work on staying cool in the pocket because it seems like he’s hyper-aware of the pressure to the detriment of keeping his focus downfield. When he has a clean pocket, he’s deadly.

He also doesn’t show very much touch on deep throws. But I think this is more of a frame/footwork issue than an accuracy issue. He often throws off balance, even with a clean pocket and no pressure. This leads to errant throws that stray from the mark and I didn’t seem him make too many completions on deep passes in games I watched. He’ll need work on his fundamentals to iron the deep throws out.

When I said Geno Smith wasn’t a weapon as a runner, watch Smith and Manuel side by side and you’ll understand the difference. Manuel is a weapon carrying the ball. He follows blocks, subtly sets up tacklers to elude them, and he makes it look as if he’s running away from defenders. But this brings up another problem.

I wonder if Manuel is just a college guy. He runs away from defenders, but is it because he’s that good a runner or because the gap is wider in talent? His 40 time wasn’t impressive. (Geno Smith ran a faster time, but Geno’s slower on tape. The comparison between the two provides a great example of that concept.) Not only that, but Manuel is primarily a one read guy, can he adapt to attacking complex NFL defenses?

**Overall: **Manuel has everything you could possibly want in a QB, but I wonder if he’ll be able to put it together at the next level. He’s almost the opposite of Nassib: all the tools but not as much of the polish. He’ll need work in the film room and a lot of reps in practice without the pressure of starting or installing game plans. I think he goes to a Pro Bowl, but it will be at least five years down the road and maybe on his second team. How he responds to his first contract will be crucial to how lucrative the second contract is. If he works hard and really puts in the extra time, he’s the best QB in the class.

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As noted above, it seems clear that Emery’s MO is to enter the draft with your options wide open. He claims to want dynamic playmakers, presumably believing that you can find steady solid contributors on the open market for modest prices. I think he’s right, but we’ll have to see how that pans out. Certainly some of those low rent starters are low rent for good reason, but I’m inclined to be optimistic thus far. Of course the real key to making this works is that you have to successfully project those superstar playmakers in the draft. We only have 1 sample to judge, lets see what Emery’s track record is so far.

2012 Bears Draft Picks
Round 1 (19) Shea McClellin
Round 2 (45) Alshon Jeffery
Round 3 (79) Brandon Hardin
Round 4 (111) Evan Rodriguez
Round 6 (184) Isaiah Frey
Round 7 (220) Greg McCoy

This one is a mixed bag, and that might be generous. I’ve never been shy about my dislike for that McClellin pick. Thus far I can’t say I’ve been proven wrong, but the jury is still out. DeCastro, the guy I really wanted, blew out his MCL so I can’t really say that he’d have made the difference for the 2012 Bears. It’s worth noting that it’s a year later and the Bears have now rebooted their OL and will probably not have a chance to draft one of the top OGs in this draft. McClellin never started a game which is an indictment of a 1st round pick in my book, but he did have some productive moments as a pass rush specialist on what was a great and healthy defense. I don’t think he can make a leap and a part-time player is all he can be but maybe I’ll be wrong.

Alshon Jeffery is a hit, he had a few bumpy moments in his rookie campaign but it’s rare that rookie WRs are as successful as he was last year. If he fine tunes his technique I think he’ll be the one memorable pick from this class. Emery traded up to get him so credit there, this one’s no accident.

Hardin was red-shirted, can’t really grade him. But it’s not looking good since injuries were what forced him into the 3rd round afterall. Still, he’s a athletic freak who fits the Emery mold.

Rodriguez played a lot, but put up almost no numbers. Not his fault since Lovie and Co. made the bizarre choice to turn a pass catching TE into a old school FB. Hopefully Emery will be vindicated if Trestman switches him into a productive F-TE. As a FB this is a wasted pick.

Neither Frey or McCoy made the team. Nuff said.

It’s really tough to look at that draft and say Emery did a good job. But, I also don’t think we can clearly say that he’s a bad evaluator of talent either. Hardin and Rodriguez are incompletes and still might be very good picks. McClellin is a head scratcher and I hate seeing late picks wasted, but it’s just too early to call it a disaster. What we can say is that Emery likes to swing for the fences and he doesn’t give a damn about positional need. Emery also sees passing and defending the pass as critical to success.

Last year DE wasn’t in the Bears top 3 needs and they passed on the top OG available (#2 need on my board) to take a exciting unconventional athlete at a premium position. He went up and grabbed the WR with the measurables instead of standing pat and taking one of many safe guys experts had grouped into that 3rd tier. He loaded up on the secondary in spite of it being a deep position and grabbed a tweener in Rodriguez even though there wasn’t an obvious roster spot for him.

So, heading into this draft I fully expect Emery to draft the player with the most upside in the passing game. It might be another DE, WR or CB. It might be a TE or a QB. You can’t rule out pass blocker or someone in the middle of the defense obviously, but he won’t reach for need. With that in mind, let’s run through the roster and see what those needs might be.

Offense
QB - Jay Cutler, Matt Blanchard, Josh McCown
This is the make or break year for Cutler. The new regime hasn’t pressed hard for a new deal for Cutler and I guess Cutler is hoping he can pull a Flacco in the last year of his deal. Cutler and Trestman need to learn to work together and implement this new system. Early returns are very positive, but aren’t they always? Blanchard is a relative unknown but he was a UDFA that Emery really liked and could become a Trestman project. McCown was brought back to play the role of veteran backup in the wake of Campbell leaving, I prefer McCown and he should be a nice fit for the system.

Supposedly the Bears are one of the teams who showed a strong interest in JaMarcus Russell. I think that’s utter bullshit, but I have no doubt that Emery was paying attention since he’s the type to leave no stone unturned. I wouldn’t rule out the Bears adding another QB in FA and/or drafting a QB in the middle rounds should a guy they like slide. Certainly the Bears could draft a rookie as insurance if Cutler flames out with Trestman, that might even be prudent but I’m rooting for Cutler and Blanchard to earn the 1-2 spots.

RB - Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Armando Allen, Harvey Unga
Forte was a bit disappointing on the heels of his big contract, but there’s still no doubt that he’ll be back as the undisputed #1. On paper Forte is the perfect fit for a classic west coast system, he’ll easily be the most talented RB Trestman has ever worked with so there’s reason to believe he’ll be better in '13. Bush will return as the #2 and hopefully he gets action outside of just the short yardage/goal line situations. They brought back Armando Allen to be the 3rd down scat back, he showed promise in garbage time last season.

In the draft I would bet the Bears avoid the RB position. I suspect Emery is wait-on-RB guy, but I would love to see the Bears get way more dynamic at the position with a middle round pick. I think Allen is too slow and pedestrian to really be a change of pace back, I wanted to see Giovani Bernard in a Bears uni but his stock has risen to the point that he won’t be there in the middle rounds. I also would be very excited if the Bears took a chance on Lattimore which is probably more realistic, Emery certainly has a balls to do it.

WR - Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems, Joe Anderson, Toliver, Terrence, Brittan Golden
Marshall was a one man wreaking crew last year, setting all kinds of Bears records and he was a model citizen to boot. It’s just a great story and Bears fans couldn’t be happier. Marshall also has been a leader off the field, putting together off-season workouts with Bennett, Rodriguez and Jeffery and others. Jeffery had a few rough moments and struggled through a broken hand in his rookie year but all in all the year was a success. He was a productive starter in week 1 and with some seasoning he should ease some of the burden on Marshall. Bennett isn’t on the field often enough and last year he didn’t move the chains the way he had in previous seasons. Weems looks to be in position to replace Hester as the 4th WR/slot but who knows how he’ll fit into this new system. Anderson, Tolliver and Golden are all 2nd year guys battling for a roster spot.

I mentioned that Emery seems to favor the passing game and you can’t rule out him drafting another WR should the opportunity present itself. This group above has a lot of size but it lacks game breaking speed and is weak in the slot. Originally I was in the tank for Tavon Austin and he looks like just the type Emery would go for, but it’s not looking like he’ll be on the board at 20. There are several other WRs who I like in this class, Justin Hunter, Qunton Patton, Robert Woods but Ryan Swope seems like a potential match. That said, Anderson, Tolliver and Golden all are young guys that the Bears may view as candidates to provide the needed depth and excitement.

TE - Martellus Bennett, Steve Maneri, Kyle Adams, Evan Rodriguez
I’ve mentioned my enthusiasm for the Bennett signing already. There’s some risk that he’s a one-hit wonder, but after watching Kellen Davis bat balls all over the field last year I’m thrilled to have an actual professional at the position. With a true two-way TE like Bennett Trestman should really be able to open up the playbook and attack the middle of the field. It certainly won’t hurt their ability to keep Cutler upright either.

Maneri is a converted OT playing TE, essentially a cheaper and younger version of Spaeth. I’m not expecting much he should make us better in short yardage. Adams is a hold over from the previous regime and it’s unclear if he’ll have much of a role in the offense.

Rodriguez is a little bit of an enigma. I’m listing him as a TE because I firmly believe that is the only position he belongs at. On the roster he’s listed as a FB and I suspect he’ll line up there in some formations, but where he’ll impact the offense is as a F-TE who moves all over the formation creating advantageous matchups.

Draft experts are still mocking TEs Eiffert and Ertz to the Bears. I think that’s a long shot since Emery drafted Rodriguez and signed Bennett to man the position, but if either of those guys are at the top of the board you couldn’t rule it out. If Emery views Rodriguez primarily as a FB instead that possibility opens up even more. Behind those top 2 guys there isn’t a candidate I feel strongly about.

OL - Jermon Bushrod, J’Marcus Webb, Jonathan Scott, Gabe Carimi, Matt Slauson, James Brown, Edwin Williams, Roberto Garza, Eben Britton, Taylor Boggs
The Bears have a lot of options for combinations across the line with this group. Bushrod is pretty much a lock at LT, Webb will probably slide back to the right side. Scott will challenge him as the swing tackle. Carimi’s chance to compete at OT seems to be over with him having the inside track at the RG spot. Garza will start at Center even if he might be a liability. At LG it could be Slauson, Brown or Britton.

The fact that there’s essentially an open competition across the offensive line means a lot of uncertainty. That’s usually a big negative for a team’s chances but I think this group of players is much better than what we’ve trotted out in previous years. This group is more experienced. One concern is that the middle of the line is made up of a bunch of failed OTs who are being pushed inside. That tactic has been successful in the past, but I worry about their ability to run block with so many long and tall players playing with poor leverage. Hopefully pass protection improves though.

In the draft the popular consensus is that OG is the Bears greatest need, and that’s a fair assessment. But with the additions of Britton and Slauson and the move of Carimi inside the Bears aren’t nearly as sparse there as some people think. James Brown was guy viewed as a 2-3rd round draft choice last year prior to some off the field issues. While none of these guys are close to being Pro Bowlers, they also reduce the urgency to draft a OG. Consider that OG is traditionally not a premium position I’d be pretty surprised to see Emery grab one even if Cooper or Warmack slip. It happened with DeCastro afterall and Emery passed. If anything the Bears probably should focus on Center before OG to upgrade Garza soon.

So, there’s the offense. I will try and make another run at the Bears defense tomorrow.

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Thanks for the analysis, Jules, it’s interesting. Shitty year to need a QB though. I doubt Weeden is any good, but between Chud/Norv’s system being better for his style and the lack of better options in this draft it seems logical to stick with him. I wouldn’t hate taking a shot on Manuel in the 2nd round if they recover a pick there, but Smith in the first sounds shitty - seems like he’d be a 2nd/3rd round pick in most drafts except that this draft is very weak at QB and the best prospect gets bumped up significantly.

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Buccaneers give up first rounder and conditional 2014 third for Revis. While I’m disappointed I won’t get to see a Thursday night pick, I am frickin’ thrilled that we got Revis for six years for no guaranteed money. Sure, he’ll be making $16 million a year, but we had $33 million in cap room.

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Mike Greenberg was whining about it all morning…

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Yeah, I usually listen to M & M on my commute. I don’t know what his problem is; the Jets weren’t a playoff team with Revis and they won’t be one without him. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, just might be with the additions of Revis and Dashon Goldson. Our secondary was the worst in the league last year, and will be among the best now if Revis is healthy. I assume Eric Wright (who we gave a decent chunk of change to last offseason) will be the other starting corner with Mark Barron now playing a true strong safety position.

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The biggest thing I noticed with him is his wild inconsistency. He’ll look the part of a real NFL quarterback for parts of games, and then look like a fine college QB with no chance to make it, and then look just goddawful the next. There is certainly enough good tape to say he could develop into a solid NFL quarterback, but there is also enough bad tape to concluded he’ll wash out.

I watched his bowl game against Northern Illinois, and was impressed with all the things you mentioned: his footwork, arm strength, and mobility. At 1:26, he throws a great 15 yard out with a ton of zip and great spiral. That’s a real NFL throw right there, a throw that not every QB can make. But the problem is he rarely is asked to make “NFL throws”. Almost everything is a three step drop from shotgun and throw it to the one guy Jimbo Fisher told you to throw it to. His accuracy is fine on those passes, but rare is the time he has to work through progressions and find his second or third option, all within 4 seconds like NFL QB’s have to. It’s “throw it to A, if he is covered, either dump off to B or run”. I kept seeing the words “system quarterback” watching that game. There was also a pass (5:31) that would have been picked in the NFL.

I then watched his tape against USF. His stat line for that game (19 for 26, 242 yards, 73.1 comp%, 1 td, 0 int.) was fine, but unbelievably misleading. On his third pass (after two of his typical ones), he throws a horrible deep ball. At 1:13 he has a open WR and he hits him for a big gain. But even on that nice play, he missed the guy in stride and made him wait, just a nanosecond, to get the ball. While his accuracy stats are incredible, I think he may not be accurate enough for the NFL. At 2:10, he does something stupid, but he was down so it didn’t really matter. At 3:50 he shows his escapeability, but I wanted to see him not go to the run right away. The next play is one of those “what the fuck are you thinking” throws into double coverage. Then I thought he had a horrible set of plays throughout the 5:00 minute part of the film. He throws behind a guy, makes another WR wait for the ball by having no touch at all, throws it in the dirt, and runs into a tackle. Finally, at 7:55, his WR beats coverage deep and is open, and EJ, once again, takes him off stride and out of bounds with a throw with no touch. It counts as another long completion, but he left an easy TD on the field.

The thing with EJ Manuel is that he is a great athlete, a very good thrower, and an excellent runner. If Chip Kelly drafts him to run the read/option, he may put up some very nice stats. And, given time and development, he could be a great NFL QB. But there is also a lot of downside. He scares easy, he’s too quick to run, his deep ball isn’t good, his accuracy is good, not great, and I think he’s a system quarterback. And, worst of all, he couldn’t even beat out Christian Ponder.

I wouldn’t draft him in the first round at all, and likely not the second. But, given his tools, he’ll be drafted in the first (maybe way too early in the first) round and I don’t think he’ll ever live up to that draft position. As a developmental QB, he’s way above average, but unless he’s running the read option, he’ll take a lot of work to make it in the NFL.

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Manuel is Vince Young waiting to happen. Great feet, cannon arm, squirrel brain.

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$16 million a year? Holy Fuck. That’s like $5 million a year more than any cornerback last year, including Darrelle Revis. Good thing you have the cap room, because that’s just sick.

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It’s a huge contract, but with zero guaranteed dollars. I gather the structure is pretty much the reason the Jets couldn’t re-sign him; his agents kept offering the same big money, no guarantee arrangement, and they couldn’t do it because they thought he’d actually meet all the performance escalators. Revis is betting on himself, and I really respect that (though frankly I don’t like the guy much otherwise).

Look at it this way: $16 million is not a huge number for a quarterback (the Bucs are talking about re-signing questionmark Josh Freeman at $12 million per), so it can’t be that bad a number for the best defensive player in football. The question is whether Revis will still be that guy with the injury, but they’re covered; if his ACL recovery doesn’t go well, the Bucs are out a first- and third-rounder, and whatever he was paid for the first one (or two) seasons, and that’s basically it. No cap hit in succeeding years.

Remember, it’s exactly the same amount the Bills paid Mario Williams last year- and Williams is not the best DE in football, and he got more than half of that deal guaranteed. The Eagles gave Asomugha $12 million per year for five years, with huge guarantees.

Basically, because we’re not paying our quarterback (or LT, RB, or DEs) very much, we’ve got lots and lots of money to pay the league’s best cornerback. The only other guys on the roster really getting paid are Vincent Jackson (who so far has proven to be worth every dollar he was signed for), and Gerald McCoy, who has been superb when actually on the field.

54

Compared to quarterbacks, yeah, it’s not bad. Compared to cornerbacks, which is what Revis is, it’s way overpriced. He will make $5 million a year more than the second highest paid cornerback, which was himself last year. That’s simply too much for a position that, while important, isn’t nearly as important to wins and loses as a QB.

I think a first round pick, a third round pick, and $16 million a year for a guy who can’t play would be a huge cost. You can say there is no guaranteed money, but they’ll pay him for this year, even if he never plays a down.

How do the Eagles feel about that salary for Asomugha now? Granted the guarantees hurt the team for longer, but no one is praising the Asomugha deal now.

I understand that the Bucs have money to waste. To me, paying that much for a cornerback, even the best cornerback in the NFL, is just that, a waste. YMMV, of course. I was wrong about Doug Martin, maybe I’m wrong about Revis’ value.

55

Don’t worry. I was wrong about Martin too. The point is that if he doesn’t pan out he doesn’t hurt us down the road. I’d say the odds of him recovering fully are far better than the odds of whichever corner we drafted turning into a Pro Bowl player (much less one of Revis’ caliber).

56

It is still $16 million dollars a year against the cap for a cornerback. I understand that the risk (not recovering from injury, not returning to form (cough Asomugha cough, or throwing more fits) are mostly on Revis, but to put that risk on Revis will cost the Bucs $16 million a year. To me, no single cornerback is worth that money. Great, he takes away your #1 WR. Well, the really good teams, the teams the Bucs will have to beat, will have more than one option. Take away Roddy White? Great, throw to Julio Jones. Take away Marques Colston? Great, Brees will find Jimmy Graham or Lance Moore or Darren Sproles. Take away Steve Smith? Well… they’re the Panthers, big deal. For what the Bucs are paying Revis, they could pay Joe Haden AND Jonathon Joseph.

Yes, most of the risk is taken on by Darrelle Revis. But that will cost the Bucs dearly.

57

Ouch!

:smiley:

58

All very true- but the presumption is that they won’t be able to pay Haden or someone because of Revis. That’s not the case. The Bucs did such a good job of [del]subsidizing Man United[/del] not paying anyone post-Gruden that we still have nearly $20 mil in cap room over the next three years. Having groomed players in-house to fill other holes, there really isn’t that much else to spend on anyway.

59

But you would normally have to account for White, Colston, or Smith with more personnel than just one DB, so Revis is freeing up at least one additional player to cover Graham, Moore, and Sproles. Or you can bring that extra defender up to the line to help against the run while maintaining your coverage against the pass. It’s almost like gaining a 12th defender.

Maybe that’s not worth $16 million, maybe it is, but it is an extremely valuable advantage.

60

How far were the Bucs from the cap floor? Are they spending loads of money on Revis simply to comply with the floor? Google will doubtless be my friend when understanding what the penalties are for not complying with the floor (as I don’t know them) but it could be that they’re just paying a load of money to someone to avoid those penalties - if Revis contract<penalties for not making the floor, it might be a rational thing to do.