Oak's College Pick'em '11

[Oakminster]

As promised, I've started a College Pick'em league. Invitations should have gone out to everyone that played last year, and everyone else is welcome to participate. There is no limit of the number of players. There should be fewer games to pick each week this year, as I set it to "Top 25" and "SEC", but not the Yahoo choices.

We're using confidence point scoring, and your lowest week will be dropped for ranking purposes.

The league is at Yahoo, Group ID# 1362
Password is cecil

Note: I will not edit your picks, ever, for any reason. You may as well not select the option that would allow it, cuz it ain't gonna happen. You can select an option to send you email reminders before the first game each week if you like. The deadline to get your picks in is 5 minutes before each game.

[Zeldar]

Good work, Oak! Beasley's in.

[notfrommensa]

Got the invite, glad you are reducing the # games, although I would like to see it fixed to a specific number of games per week. If a player happens to miss a week that has more games played than any other week then he will be at a disadvantage.

IIRC, I think a couple of entrants (me included) forgot to hit the submit button after making the picks last year.

[Oakminster]

I don't think there's an option for a set number of games. I only remember choices for Yahoo choices, Top 25, and one conference. The dropped lowest week will partially mitigate a player forgetting to hit submit one time.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by Oakminster

There should be fewer games to pick each week this year, as I set it to "Top 25" and "SEC", but not the Yahoo choices.

Judging by the "ranking numbers" at http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/scoreboard they will depend on the AP Poll's choices. If I remember correctly in past years those numbers get adjusted soon after the new AP numbers come out, but may not be shown in the week's schedule right away.

Do you know how soon the "Top 25" will be visible to the "Pick'em" crowd?

[flickster]

Thanks for the invite - I'm back again as Pride of the Southland

[Zeldar]

If the assumption is good that the AP Top 25 will be in line with the other polls in this list, the games we will have to work with ought to come from these:

 
Week 1 Scoreboard   [Coaches] (Yahoo!) <Rivals>
 
 Thursday September 1, 2011 
 
  UNLV                          8:00 pm EDT   
  [10] (7) <7>  Wisconsin   
 
  [20] (15) Mississippi St.     8:00 pm EDT   SEC   
  Memphis   

  Kentucky                      9:15 pm EDT   SEC      
  West. Kentucky 
 
  UC Davis                     10:00 pm EDT   
  <20> Arizona St.  
 
 Friday September 2, 2011  
 
  Youngstown St.                7:30 pm EDT   
  [17] (14) <18> Michigan St.  
 
  [15] (2) <15> TCU             8:00 pm EDT   
  Baylor  
 
 Saturday September 3, 2011 
 
  Utah St.                     12:00 pm EDT   
  [19] (1) Auburn                             SEC  
 
  Indiana St.                  12:00 pm EDT   
  [25] <23> Penn St.  
 
  Miami (OH)                   12:00 pm EDT   
  [21] (18) Missouri   
 
  Akron                        12:00 pm EDT   
  [16] (5) <16> Ohio St.  
 
  Kent St.                     12:20 pm EDT   
  [2] (10) <2>   Alabama                      SEC    
 
  Appalachian St.              12:30 pm EDT   
  [13] (16) <12> Virginia Tech 

  Minnesota                     3:30 pm EDT   
  <19> USC   
 
  LA Monroe                     3:30 pm EDT   
  [5] (17) <8> Florida St.  
 
  Chattanooga                   3:30 pm EDT   
  [11] (20) <9>  Nebraska  
 
  South Florida                 3:30 pm EDT   
  [18] <13> Notre Dame  
 
  <25> BYU                      4:45 pm EDT   
  Mississippi                                 SEC  
 
  San Jose St.                  5:00 pm EDT   
  [6] (4) <6>  Stanford 
 
  Montana                       6:00 pm EDT   
  Tennessee                                   SEC   
 
  Liberty                       6:00 pm EDT   
  (25) N.C. State 
 
  LA Lafayette                  7:00 pm EDT   
  [8] (13) <11> Oklahoma St. 
 
  [12] (22) <17> South Carolina 7:00 pm EDT   SEC      
  East Carolina  
 
  Rice                          7:00 pm EDT   
  [24] <22> Texas 
 
  Missouri St.                  7:00 pm EDT   
  [14] (12) <14> Arkansas                     SEC   
 
  Charleston Sou.               7:00 pm EDT   
  (21) UCF  
 
  Florida Atlantic              7:00 pm EDT   
  [23] <21> Florida                           SEC    
 
  Elon                          7:30 pm EDT   
  Vanderbilt                                  SEC 
 
  (24) Tulsa                    8:00 pm EDT   
  [1] (6) <1>   Oklahoma   
 
  [4] (8) <4>   LSU             8:00 pm EDT   SEC      
  [3] (3) <3>   Oregon  
 
  [7] (9) <5>   Boise St.       8:00 pm EDT   
  [22] Georgia                                SEC 
 
 Sunday September 4, 2011 
 
  Marshall                      3:30 pm EDT   
  <24> West Virginia   
 
  SMU                           7:30 pm EDT   
  [9] (19) <10> Texas A&M  
 
 Monday September 5, 2011 
 
  Miami (FL)                    8:00 pm EDT  
  (23) Maryland

The AP numbers are due out on the 20th.

[Oakminster]

We only have 6 people signed up so far. Picks are supposed to be available on Monday, 8/29/11.

This game has no limit on the number of players, all are welcome to join.

[USCDiver]

I musta missed it the first time around. You got a link?

[USCDiver]

Nevermind, I'm in.

[notfrommensa]

Just entered and made my picks, remember to save your picks and to do the tiebreakers.

[Oakminster]

Picks are available now. Please remember to save your picks before leaving the screen.

I'm a little disappointed we only have 8 players so far this year , but anyone can join.

24 games to pick this week.

And the moment you've all been waiting for--the first official Oak's Upset of the Week is....(drum roll, please)

(19) Georgia at home over (5) Boise State.

[USCDiver]

Ah, but how many confidence points did you give that upset?

[Oakminster]

Not very many. Less than I put on BYU over Ole Miss in Oxford. I expect the Rebels to stink up the place. One of the guys competing for the starting QB job got himself arrested last week. That doesn't bode well for the season. Fortunately, I'm a Mississippi State fan, so kudos to the fine law enforcement officers in Oxford for doing their duty.

[notfrommensa]

RamblinWreckage also picked UGA over Boise. This post might come back to haunt me, but I think if UGA can beat BSU and USC, they will run the table to the SEC Championship (aka the De Facto National Championship game).

[Zeldar]

Hey, guys, let me show you a little tinkering I have done just to give my "confidence points" more "science" than just grabbing numbers.

Using http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm to get Sagarin's preseason rankings for both teams, and getting the difference in those ranking numbers, and then sorting by the resulting differences I get:

 @(18)Ohio St.       vs  Akron            Sat 09/03 11:00am -   3   157    154
 @(15)Arkansas       vs  Missouri St.     Sat 09/03 06:00pm -  13   156    143
 @(10)Nebraska       vs  Chattanooga      Sat 09/03 02:30pm -  18   148    130
 @(22)Florida        vs  Florida Atlantic Sat 09/03 06:00pm -   6   133    127
 @(7)Stanford        vs  San Jose St.     Sat 09/03 04:00pm -  12   136    124 

 @(2)Alabama         vs  Kent St.         Sat 09/03 11:20am -   1   124    123 
 @(9)Oklahoma St.    vs  LA Lafayette     Sat 09/03 06:00pm -  16   139    123
 @(6)Florida St.     vs  LA Monroe        Sat 09/03 02:30pm -  15   131    116
 @(17)Michigan St.   vs  Youngstown St.   Fri 09/02 06:30pm -  36   151    115
 @(23)Auburn         vs  Utah St.         Sat 09/03 11:00am -  11   118    107 

 @(21)Missouri       vs  Miami (OH)       Sat 09/03 11:00am -  21   117     96
 @(24)West Virginia  vs  Marshall         Sun 09/04 02:30pm -  22   101     79
 @(25)USC            vs  Minnesota        Sat 09/03 02:30pm -  10    81     71 
 @(13)Virginia Tech  vs  Appalachian St.  Sat 09/03 11:30am -   9    74     65 
  (14)TCU            vs  @Baylor          Fri 09/02 07:00pm -   4    69     65

 @(8)Texas A&M       vs  SMU              Sun 09/04 06:30pm -  37    95     58
 @(1)Oklahoma        vs  Tulsa            Sat 09/03 07:00pm -   5    57     52
 @Tennessee          vs  Montana          Sat 09/03 05:00pm -  42    91     49
 @(12)South Carolina vs  East Carolina    Sat 09/03 06:00pm -  26    71     45 
 @Vanderbilt         vs  Elon             Sat 09/03 06:30pm -  90   112     22

  (5)Boise St.       vs  @(19)Georgia     Sat 09/03 07:00pm -   7    25     18
  BYU                vs  @Mississippi     Sat 09/03 03:45pm -  35    50     15
 @(16)Notre Dame     vs  South Florida    Sat 09/03 02:30pm -  33    45     12
  (3)Oregon          vs  @(4)LSU          Sat 09/03 07:00pm -   2     8      6

I'm assigning "confidence points" from 24 at the top to 1 at the bottom.

Since money's not involved I thought I'd share the method with y'all just to see what you think. Shoot it down, or use it (or a variation of it) for yourself.

Notice that I have not blindly followed Sagarin's rankings to pick WINNERS; I have some upsets in my picks. But I ranked the games themselves (confidence wise) with this approach.

[notfrommensa]

I mock your scientific approach. Mock Mock. Total gut feelings from RamblinWreckage. I don't even look at the point spread.

[Oakminster]

More mocking here. My confidence point rankings are pulled straight outta my ass, based on what I think/hope might/could/should happen maybe/kinda/sorta.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

I mock your scientific approach. Mock Mock. Total gut feelings from RamblinWreckage. I don't even look at the point spread.

Okay. I will give you credit for lack of perspiration in the process. I have next to zero faith in the "method" I used, but after all the bullshit I spread in that thread about "must-see OOC games" I figured I ought to use some of that approach here as well. Besides, it's hard to work up much anticipation for tonight's games. I may watch enough of either or both to see the ranked team get maybe 30 points ahead. Then switch over to some comedy show or whatever.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by Oakminster

More mocking here. My confidence point rankings are pulled straight outta my ass, based on what I think/hope might/could/should happen maybe/kinda/sorta.

As soon as I lose this week I will revert to a similar approach, but I think this gives a bit of an indicator of how cupcake the first week really is. Notice how only four games feature rivals within 20 ranking points of each other! And one of them is on our list because it's an SEC game.

I find it really amusing how "tight" the Vandy game is!

[notfrommensa]

Originally Posted by Zeldar

I find it really amusing how "tight" the Vandy game is!

Who, what or Where the hell is Elon anyways? this school might be the cremepuff inside a hostess cupcake.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

Who, what or Where the hell is Elon anyways? this school might be the cremepuff inside a hostess cupcake.

It's in NC I think. I'll look it up for you.

http://www.elon.edu/home/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_College

It's in a lot of crossword puzzles.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by Zeldar

Okay. I will give you credit for lack of perspiration in the process. I have next to zero faith in the "method" I used, but after all the bullshit I spread in that thread about "must-see OOC games" I figured I ought to use some of that approach here as well. Besides, it's hard to work up much anticipation for tonight's games. I may watch enough of either or both to see the ranked team get maybe 30 points ahead. Then switch over to some comedy show or whatever.

I just checked on the possibility of watching the Youngstown game and it's only on the Big Ten Network in our market. I don't subscribe to that one. Didn't want to leave false impressions.

[notfrommensa]

Bad news for Ramblin Wreckage: 2 games are losses thus far (TCU and Notre Dame). Good new for Ramblin Wreckage, I got them at #1 and #3 in confidence. but I have the Dawgs at 8 confidence level and the Ducks at 2.

[notfrommensa]

Checking the standings everyone has missed at least two games.

Everybody picked TCU (but I was the smart one a 1 pt of confidence) and nearly everyone picked Notre Dame (and again I was the lowest in confidence level) . The one player that picked South Florida picked Appy State over va Tech, with 11 confidence level. And I am looking at you Zeldar!

the players that picked Ole Miss have not lost much. I should be leading going into tomorrows games. No matter what happens later tonight. And I sure thought the Miami/Maryland game was on our list.

check that. I will be neck and neck with A Salty Salute. that does not sound appetizing.

[notfrommensa]

Anyone know who these players are: A Salty Salute and Purple Passion? I know Beasley (Zeldar), DaBears (JSC), Oak (Oakminister), and OurCocks (USCDiver) and of course me Ramblin Wreckage. And Flickster is Pride of the Southland.

[Oakminster]

I missed three games today...Georgia, TCU, and Notre Dame, costing me 20 points. Still, I scored 275, with 5 more in play tomorrow.

And I'm 0-1 with the Upset Special.

[notfrommensa]

2nd place after week 1. Salty Salute is leading whoever the heck (s)he is. I missed 4 games, but the were 1,2,3, and 8 on the confidence scale.

Zeldar is leading in overall winning % but I suspect that will change because I have mocked his system. Mock Mock: Appy State? with 11 Confidence? BWWAAHHHH some system.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

2nd place after week 1. Salty Salute is leading whoever the heck (s)he is. I missed 4 games, but the were 1,2,3, and 8 on the confidence scale.

Zeldar is leading in overall winning % but I suspect that will change because I have mocked his system. Mock Mock: Appy State? with 11 Confidence? BWWAAHHHH some system.

Well, they did beat Michigan a few years back. It looks like my "system" needs a bit of tweaking, you're right.

[Oakminster]

4th place for me after week 1. Everybody went 20-4 or better, Zeldar had 22-2, three of us tied at 21-3, and 4 tied at 20-4. 31 confidence points separate first from last. Interesting...

[notfrommensa]

Originally Posted by Oakminster

4th place for me after week 1. Everybody went 20-4 or better, Zeldar had 22-2, three of us tied at 21-3, and 4 tied at 20-4. 31 confidence points separate first from last. Interesting...

If I were to tweak the system, (and it would hurt me this past week), I would give bonus points for every win. Five (or maybe 10) points would be my recommendation. That could done easily by starting the confidence points at 6 (or 11), rather 1.

[jsc1953]

As a public service, here's the link.

Stupid TCU. I'd be creaming you guys if I'd just given them, oh 10 points instead of freakin' 23.

[notfrommensa]

Originally Posted by jsc1953

Stupid TCU. I'd be creaming you guys if I'd just given them, oh 10 points instead of freakin' 23.

How is that when you are 20 pts behind the leader and 17 pts behind me?

[jsc1953]

Just because I went to Berkeley doesn't mean I do math.

[The Universe Lashes Out]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

2nd place after week 1. Salty Salute is leading whoever the heck (s)he is.

That would be me. (I was known as HowieReynolds this time last year.) If I recall correctly, I won the bowl pool last year and shoulda won the regular season, but stupidly missed a big week. Good to see I'm off to a hot start. So far I'm sticking with my strategy of using my top pick on my Florida Gators each week, although I might wuss out when we start playing Alabama and LSU.

[notfrommensa]

OK, we have identified all but one of the players. Purple Passion has yet to be identified in this thread. FWIW, Purple Passion used to be strip club in Memphis. Maybe some other places too.

OK, I have made my picks for this weekend. There is a game tomorrow night so make your picks, and make sure you save them.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

OK, we have identified all but one of the players. Purple Passion has yet to be identified in this thread. FWIW, Purple Passion used to be strip club in Memphis. Maybe some other places too.

OK, I have made my picks for this weekend. There is a game tomorrow night so make your picks, and make sure you save them.

Any of y'all ever drink a Purple Passion? Vodka and grape juice and maybe some other ingredients? Maybe PGA instead of Vodka, too.

That might be an LSU fan.

[notfrommensa]

PGA = ??? Pomegranate ? Instead of Vodka? grape juice and Pomegranate juice sounds doesn;t sound like much of an adult drink.

[jsc1953]

I'm not much of a drinker, especially of concocted drinks, but I'm gonna guess: Pure Grain Alcohol.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

PGA = ??? Pomegranate ? Instead of Vodka? grape juice and Pomegranate juice sounds doesn;t sound like much of an adult drink.

It may not be. Think high school rabble-rouser days.

Originally Posted by jsc1953

I'm not much of a drinker, especially of concocted drinks, but I'm gonna guess: Pure Grain Alcohol.

That's the stuff. I never tasted it but it sounded deadly. I seem to recall an actual canned or bottled product for a while called Purple Passion, but that may be a false memory.

[Oakminster]

I'm honeymooning, but my picks are in.

Oak's Official Upset Special of the Week:

Air Force at home over TCU.

[jsc1953]

Glad you got your priorities in order. and mazel tov.

My upset of the week: Penn State over Bama. Just as a "what the hell...could happen..."

[notfrommensa]

Looks like everyone has made their picks. My upset special is the upcoming game. I am taking Mizzou. And living in Missouri, I am hating every minute of it. Risking 8 pts confidence level.

[notfrommensa]

*Cough* I am choking on all the chalk that I picked this week.

FTR, I did pick two upsets, and got one of them right. The left side of the board won all but one game this week. To show respect to Oak I will not point out which of the left side teams did not win.

FWIW, I would have rather had the Notre Dame/Michigan game than all the cupcake of the week in the SEC like the Ole Miss/SIU game. But it is nice not having ND or Mich in the top 25. Probably Michigan gets there this week.

27 games next week and there is a Thursday night game so get your picks in by Thursday evening.

[Oakminster]

Yup, I put up a Commissioner's Note about the Thursday game. Don't want anyone to miss out on getting a pick in.

I only missed three games for Week 2, but one of them cost me 15 points. Everyone did worse than in Week 1, so standings remain as they were.

Oak's Official Upset of the Week is:

Mississippi State at home over LSU.


Yes, I know I'm currently 0-2 on my upsets. State lost a heartbreaker on the road at Auburn, but they almost pulled it off. I think they scored on second down, when Ballard launched himself at the goal line, but the refs said no. The last play of the game was a clean stuff by Auburn. Hoping they bounce back this week and knock off LSU.

[notfrommensa]

yes, the standings remain the same, but a couple of posters improved their position. Even I got all 24 games correct this week, I could not have done better than I did in week 1.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

27 games next week and there is a Thursday night game so get your picks in by Thursday evening.

What am I missing? I only count 26:

 
 Week:  3   
 
 Thursday September 15, 2011          
 
  (3) LSU (2-0, Road: 0-0)             8:00 pm EDT   SEC     
  (25) Mississippi St. (1-1, Home: 0-0)      
 
 Friday September 16, 2011            
 
  (4) Boise St. (1-0, Road: 0-0)       8:00 pm EDT   
  Toledo (1-1, Home: 1-0) 
 
 Saturday September 17, 2011 
 
  (18) West Virginia (2-0, Road: 0-0) 12:00 pm EDT   
  Maryland (1-0, Home: 1-0) 
 
  (21) Auburn (2-0, Road: 0-0)        12:00 pm EDT   SEC    
  Clemson (2-0, Home: 2-0)           
 
  Mississippi (1-1, Road: 0-0)        12:20 pm EDT   SEC
  Vanderbilt (2-0, Home: 2-0)  

  Coastal Carolina (2-0, Road: 0-0)    1:00 pm EDT   SEC
  Georgia (0-2, Home: 0-1) 
 
  LA Monroe (1-1, Road: 0-1)           2:00 pm EDT   
  (23) TCU (1-1, Home: 0-0) 
 
  Missouri St. (0-2, Road: 0-2)        3:30 pm EDT   
  (12) Oregon (1-1, Home: 1-0) 
  
  Washington (2-0, Road: 0-0)          3:30 pm EDT   
  (10) Nebraska (2-0, Home: 2-0)  
 
  Tennessee (2-0, Road: 0-0)           3:30 pm EDT   SEC     
  (16) Florida (2-0, Home: 2-0)          
 
  (7) Wisconsin (2-0, Road: 0-0)       3:30 pm EDT   
  Northern Illinois (1-1, Home: 1-0)  
 
  (15) Michigan St. (2-0, Road: 0-0)   3:30 pm EDT   
  Notre Dame (0-2, Home: 0-1)  
 
  (24) Texas (2-0, Road: 0-0)          3:30 pm EDT   
  UCLA (1-1, Home: 1-0)   
 
  Arkansas St. (1-1, Road: 0-1)        4:00 pm EDT   
  (13) Virginia Tech (2-0, Home: 1-0)          
 
  Navy (2-0, Road: 1-0)                6:00 pm EDT   SEC     
  (11) South Carolina (2-0, Home: 0-0) 
 
  Florida A&M (1-1, Road: 0-1)         7:00 pm EDT   
  (20) South Florida (2-0, Home: 1-0) 
 
  Stephen F. Austin (1-1, Road: 0-0)   7:00 pm EDT  
  (19) Baylor (1-0, Home: 1-0)  
 
  Louisville (1-1, Road: 0-0)          7:00 pm EDT   SEC    
  Kentucky (2-0, Home: 1-0) 
 
  (22) Arizona St. (2-0, Road: 0-0)    7:00 pm EDT   
  Illinois (2-0, Home: 2-0) 
 
  Idaho (1-1, Road: 0-0)               7:00 pm EDT  
  (9) Texas A&M (1-0, Home: 1-0) 
 
  Troy (0-1, Road: 0-1)                7:30 pm EDT   SEC     
  (14) Arkansas (2-0, Home: 1-0)  
 
  (17) Ohio St. (2-0, Road: 0-0)       7:30 pm EDT   
  Miami (FL) (0-1, Home: 0-0) 
 
  North Texas (0-2, Road: 0-1)         7:30 pm EDT   SEC   
  (2) Alabama (2-0, Home: 1-0) 
 
  (1) Oklahoma (1-0, Road: 0-0)        8:00 pm EDT   
  (5) Florida St. (2-0, Home: 2-0)  
 
  (8) Oklahoma St. (2-0, Road: 0-0)   10:00 pm EDT   
  Tulsa (1-1, Home: 0-0)          
 
  (6) Stanford (2-0, Road: 1-0)       10:45 pm EDT   
  Arizona (1-1, Home: 1-0)

[notfrommensa]

Actually my initial list had two game on the list that your list doesn't, and your list had one game that mine didn't. My list still had Missouri (w/ Western Illinois) and Penn St (w/ Temple) in the top 25 and it included their games. your list has the latest top 25, and it has the Arizona St (w/ Illinois) game in the list.

[Zeldar]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

Actually my initial list had two game on the list that your list doesn't, and your list had one game that mine didn't. My list still had Missouri (w/ Western Illinois) and Penn St (w/ Temple) in the top 25 and it included their games. your list has the latest top 25, and it has the Arizona St (w/ Illinois) game in the list.

Well, I built the list I posted from the latest AP Poll and the Week 3 schedule as posted at Rivals. I had to redo the teams on the Rivals list.

I suppose the one that makes it to the Pick'em ought to be the new AP Top 25, right? I just wanted a head start on the games.

[notfrommensa]

Two teams moved out of the Top 25 (Missouri and Penn St). Obviously two teams had to replace them (Arizona State and Auburn), of course, Auburn's game was already on the list.