The situation is North Korea is escalating and this MAY be a precursor to war. With that said, lets get the pulse of the forums as to the eventual outcome as a system of record for us to look back on in a year or two.
So what will be the eventual outcome of this PRK Crisis
Poll incoming… please vote
Two possibilities:
(1) (Good): the N Korea military decides that the little twerp needs to be overthrown. A military coup deposes him, and N. Korea has a new government that reaches out to the world.
(2)(Bad): the N Koreans launch a few missiles, which brings a limited response. A ceasefire ensues, in which the West agrees to give N Korea food and money, in exchange for playing nice.
By all indications, it’s the military who want the current saber-rattling, and who would stand to lose the most if North Korea “reaches out to the world”. You may want to reconsider this scenario.
Talk big and censor/manipulate your media to keep the people placated. Pretty typical stuff. US politicians aren’t above trying it, either.
A. We give them a shitload of money.
B. China tells them to stop
C. War, we destroy the political structure of North Korea. Lots of people die from standing next to the political structure of North Korea.
Cartman becomes a vietnamese prostitute, has sex with Leonardo Dicaprio and then gets assinated.
NK is falling apart.
If we wait a few more years, South Korea will be able to roll in with trucks full of food & supplies, with no shooting except for one or two die-hard dummies.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a few N K rockets get launched. They land in the sea. S K might retaliate with a couple of there rockets.
I hope theres no ground troops involved. That could bring in China and real trouble.
Probably either nothing or some isolated shooting. But there’s a chance the North Korean’s brinksmanship blows up, and then I’d expect a rapid escalation to full out war. Seoul badly damaged, NK destroyed, with the probable use of nuclear weapons against the invaders. I don’t think they can actually hit anyone outside of NK country with nukes, but setting them off in the path of invaders or blowing up Pyongyang to take out invading troops (in an “I’m taking you with me” gesture) is another matter.
It sounds like they are threatening nukes not just against the US (which they do not have the capability to launch that far) but also against South Korea. They recently claimed to have moved a nuclear missile to the East coast to defend against manuevers by the US and South Koreans on the northern border of the DMZ.
Let’s remember that North and South Korea are slightly smaller than Pennsylvania and Ohio, respectively. If the state of Pennsylvania were to launch nukes at Ohio, I’ve got to think that there would be some fallout drifting back into Pennsylvania…but I’m sure that Lil’ Kim is not too concernced about that.
Kias would be a terrible car to bring into any sort of battle.
I don’t predict much- there may be some shootings and missiles, but nothing really aimed towards population centers. I think this whole song and dance is more for internal consumption than anything else.
I don’t want this to be true, but if North Korea does something really vile (or as Der Trihs posits, one of their saber-rattling schemes goes hot “…the North Korean’s brinksmanship blows up”), then the situation could devolve into a real bloodbath.
I don’t care if North Korea has nuclear weapons, the US should never respond with nuclear weapons when the tactical superiority using conventional weapons is so overwhelming. Nukes should literally be the final weapon deployed. Japan is downwind of the entire irradiation zone if we push the big red button. Even here in the continental US, we are seeing increased levels of iodine-131 from the Fukushima disaster. Imagine the results of several tactical nuclear bombs being used to destroy the North Korean’s artillery. Not just to the destroyed military targets, but also to everyone downwind who is exposed to heightened levels of ionizing radiation.
I can only hope that those who are actually in charge are aware of the ramifications of such an action.
So far, so good, right?
Nothing. Just stirring up trouble near the inauguration of the new president of S. Korea.
Just to let you know I voted other because I really don’t have a clue – and not for want of trying either. Everything I have read or seen so far makes me feel more bewildered. Someone on the BBC has just described N Korea as a cult masquerading as a state. With that in mind and with its leader being new, young and untried I hope it’s something of nothing but I do fear something very bad indeed could come of it.
I’m just glad it’s past winter in case I need to take a little trip.
Minor skirmish, or they kidnap some people who are in or near North Korea (either South Koreans, Japanese or US citizens) and keep them as hostages. I tend to think the latter is more realistic because it is hard for a kidnapping to lead to all out war, a minor skirmish (artillery hitting a SK military base, torpedo hitting a SK or US boat) can spiral out of control. Attacks on civilians are not going to garner the military response that attacks on military bases are.
I don’t think this is realistic, but I wonder if the gov of NK would ever travel to the US with kidnap squads and just randomly kidnap like 50 people, then shuttle them back to NK the way that NK has done that with South Koreans and Japanese citizens in their home country. Granted, you’d have to deal with the police and doing the whole thing in secret. But something like that sounds possible with these assholes (although if they did they’d probably go after SK or Japanese citizens, likely ones already in the country).
I think Kim has put himself in a ‘put up or shut up’ situation and he has to do something to save face.
Absolutely nothing. I’d say skirmishes are less likely now than before-for example when the Norks sunk the Cheonan-ham, they weren’t blabbering about it for the preceding few weeks.
I agree with this sentiment up until the point that DPRK uses a nuke of its own. If and when that happens, then a nuclear show of force by the US is necessary to demonstrate that nuclear aggression is unacceptable.
One: US doctrine calls for nastier response to attacks on civilians on US soil than to soldiers; the view is that soldiers knowingly pledge themselves to protect civilians - they expect war to kill them; they view themselves as what keeps it from killing civilians.
Yes, twit has mis-played the hand his father played of provoke, promise to be nice, get aid.
If he doesn’t find a way to save face, he could be looking at a coup; he’ll probaly launch that missile vaguely at Japan or Guam and proclaim that Japan/US was so scared, they sued for peace.
He now has the problem that this time, there will be no “tribute” (as previous aid was explained to the populace) to pass around. He may be buying up foodstuffs to pass off as the “tribute” this game was supposed to produce. He might as well - as long as China continues to enforce the UN sanctions, he isn’t going to be importing anymore yachts or Mercedes to pass around - and he might even be able to hide a rolex or two in a bag of corn.