Yep - irradiate the Korean Peninsula - it’s not like there’s anybody important nearby to get upset over a bit of fallout over the next 10 years.
Look at a map!
Everybody knows the US has strategic nukes - using them against a nothing state like NK just paints another bulls-eye on our backs - we are already viewed around the world as asshole bullies - why not ratchet it up a few hundred notches?
If DPRK launches nukes first, then whose fault is it if the Korean peninsula gets irradiated?
I know the United States will not - under nearly any circumstance - use a nuclear option.
However if NK were to launch a nuclear warhead south, I would prefer removing NK from planet Earth via a nuke versus a single loss of US military personnel. Guess that is just another reason why I will not be voted into office 
I chose Fat-Boy snuffs it. Not that I think the chances of it are that high, but I have him in my Death Pool and I think that might get me in the top-ten.
How about if everybody just ignored Fat Boy? Sure, get forces in place, but don’t give this fool the attention he craves.
He’ll back down.
Let’s say that the North Korean government falls peacefully, and the South Koreans are able to take over and unite the countries. How much will it cost to bring North Korea up to modern standards? The immediate need will be for a lot of food and medicine. And the people will need to be educated. But the country will also need investment in infrastructure. What will that cost? (On the other hand, the South Korean government will no longer need to spend so much money on defense. Or perhaps not; that will place a united, free Korea on China’s border. What will China think and do?)
What was the cost of bringing the former East Germany forward?
This is the best possible outcome. The absorption of East Germany by the West was supposed to cost $80 billion-to date its been more like $800 billion-but that is still better than any wars. Absorbing N. Korea would be an excellent way for S. Korea to use its resources-and take some of the pressure off s. We cannot afford to maintain an army in Korea forever.
This +1. Nothing will come of the current “crisis”. Kim will issue some lies after the US-SK war games are over about how it was an attempted invasion that was driven off by the might of the People’s Army, etc., etc.
Unfortunately, I don’t know how it will work out in the longer run. NK is going to continue to pursue getting nukes, and rockets that can reach Tokyo or beyond. And that is Not A Good Thing. I worry about what happens when NK gets a famine next, and tries to blackmail the rest of the world into sending them food aid. Nobody but Jimmy Carter is going to be stupid enough to believe they will keep any promises to abandon their nukes to get food and fuel, and that means NK has no bargaining chip.
Best Case: Another famine, general unrest due to desperation, some general or other announces that Kim has committed suicide by shooting himself a couple of dozen times, and a marginally more sane regime begins the process of rejoining the civilized world (like Viet Nam).
Worst Case: Another famine, Kim announces he will nuke somebody if he doesn’t get food aid. He shoots off a missile at Tokyo. Followed by an invasion by China and/or South Korea and the US. Kim decides to go out in a blaze of glory, and nukes Seoul.
Regards,
Shodan
Well, there for a while Google News had a story involving talking to defectors from high levels in NK.
The finances are hurting even before latest sanctions (which are hurting badly).
Kim started out posing with children and babies, looked like he might direct his resources inward.
The the military started rumbling, so he runs over and shows he’s tough on capitalism (last few weeks)
The average soldiers eat porridge and pickled radishes, white kimchi (don’t remember the list, but the point was: no nutrition). 30-40% are doing administrative duties or attending indoctrination because they are too weak for anything else.
The expression was “mentally tough, physically weak”. Only the elite eat real food.
The army, aside from 120,000 special ops, are puppies who would scramble if you threw rations at them.
The question is - he was approached by a US delegation in 2012
He has refused deputy-minister level envoys from China at least the last 2 times they tried to send one.
SK has publicly altered its rules of engagement to ensure immediate and massive retaliation for any provocation.
Who is going to pay the bribe he thinks he’s going to get when he finally declares victory and is greeted as a hero? (by the 10% of the people who haven’t had enough outside contact to realize he is a fraud, that the country is wrecked)
Actually, all it would take is 50lbs of white rice x 24,000,000 to stabilize the place.
No idea what infant mortality is, but one thing about shitholes: if you make it to age 30, you are one tough cookie.
They have the basics of a power grid and a few roads.
Rail would be my first priority - the first food distribution should probably be air dropped in the remotest parts.
One pic I will not forget from NK: a WWII heavy truck with its hood open and belching smoke - but not petroleum smoke, not steam - wood smoke.
They had converted this to steam, and a barrel of burning wood was its fuel.
You gotta admire those folks - the remote sections are (after the disastrous famine of the 90s) mostly independent - they figured out that the govt was of no benefit, and if they wanted anything, they would need to get it themselves. Juche indeed
Well, the outcome is unsure - it is basically just a matter of time before the US push the Koreans too far and when that happens all hell will probably break loose - what effect that will have worldwide wont be known until it happens!
East Germany was pretty bad off before unification, but I don’t think they were starving.
N Korea seems a 100 times worse. All those detention camps that we keep hearing about. Starvation in the countryside. S Korea might go under trying to absorb and fix that mess.
Unification can also bring unexpected problems. Like Germany is dealing with Neo Nazis and other extremist groups. Most of that problem came from E Germany and its just getting worse.
Nothing.
Most everyone really doesn’t want the two Koreas to reunite. Oh, sure, we all say that would be peachy, but in reality, many of the players have a greater vested interest in the status quo than in in any change in the situation.
That’s the next to last thing the ROK wants. As I posted in one of the other threads, the economics of a reunification would kill South Korea. I was having dinner tonight with a Taiwanese diplomat whose private opinion was the it would take more than 40 years for Korea to recover. If you consider how much worse off North Korea is than the situation of the former East Germany at the time of it’s reunification, it’s easy to picture the ROK officials shuttering at the prospects. From my post:
This doesn’t even consider the complete lack of infrastructure in the North, the greater gap in education levels and everything else which will take a more cash than South Korea has.
Of course, worse than reunification would the the use of atomic weapons against the South, so they would have to go to war to prevent that. Prior to the threats of WMD, it was much easier to just kick the ball down the street. Their hands are tied, though. They can’t attack, they can’t engage or disengage. Being friendly hadn’t solved the long term problem nor has being tough, but it has kicked the ball down the street to make it the problem for the next government, which is as best as you can expect.
No leader of North Korea would remain in power after a reunification. The army is well aware of what happened to the East German army general staff after the Berlin was came down. Goodbye favored position in a failed state. Likewise the politicians will lost everything.
For individual leaders, it’s in their best interest now to appear strong. There used to be a saying decades ago that no one got fired for choosing IBM, and no one is Korea is going to lose a job now because they’re being too tough. The problem is that exuberance makes it easy to cross red lines or to allow events to swell out of control in an environment lacking in trust.
In KR there just aren’t any alternatives for power or prestige. No think tanks or defense contractors to draw a pay check from you are eliminated from power. Any group of people can sit together in a room and convince themselves of anything, from that they are on the right course, to that the gods are on their side or that their rightness means they can stand up to countries ten or a hundred times as powerful. When dissenting opinions are suppressed, craziness prevails.
Of course, most of the NK actions are rational from a game theory point of view. The leaders are trying to maintain power and one of the most effective means is to not be predictable.
China doesn’t want reunification, as that will put US troop near their border. Whether it actually does or not is less important that the concern that it will. Look at how quickly promises to Gorbachev by the West to station troops in the former East Germany were broken. It may be a crazy client state, but it’s their sometimes useful crazy client state. The failed economy is causes havoc, though and placing pressure on the bordering lands.
The US would most likely prefer unification, or at least prevent further development of ballistic missile and nuclear missile technologies, but we can’t override our ally, and certainly don’t have the cash to help contribute.
Without any real understanding of what is happening in the Hermit Kingdom, I believe that the US and South Korea will continue to take steps which show “resolve.” North Korea will continue to bluster and unless someones makes a terrible miscalculation, the ball will again be kicked down the field.
Not really. We are talking about people who have gone through so much deprivation as to be seriously undersized and in many cases suffering from malnutrition-induced brain damage.
Probably nothing. NK will engage in a minor skirmish, the US and SK will back down and everyone will go back to normal.
It seems NK is just going to keep doing this to get attention and money, and they are going to develop better and better weapons while they do it. And they’ve already shown a willingness to engage in illegal activity and nuclear proliferation with their selling of nuclear technology to Syria and Burma.
So the world will do nothing likely. And I wouldn’t be surprised if in in 10 years NK will have 20 nukes, they will be able to fit them on missiles and they will have longer range missiles too. Plus at that point they will probably be a bigger source of WMD proliferation than they already are.
This is like giving your lunch money to the school bully who spends it on karate lessons and brass knuckles. Appeasement just makes him stronger. But people don’t want to risk civilian casualties either.
What would be nice to see is if NK engages in a skirmish, if the US and SK fire cruise missiles to destroy all of Kim Jong Un’s palaces. That would be an awesome retribution. Plus it would make it harder for Jong Un to bribe his inner circle if he loses a few billion in wealth due to his luxury villas being destroyed.
That or drop leaflets on the country about how corrupt the government is along with radios. The NK might be afraid of that.
The real question is what is the NK gov afraid of, and how can that be used against them? They are afraid of (IMO) an all out war that they know they will lose, they are afraid of a popular revolt from an informed citizenry, they are afraid of an internal coup, they are afraid of losing their lifestyles of privilege and luxury, they are afraid of the Chinese turning against them.
So how do you use those things as sticks?
This current one? Probably nothing.
I just had a crazy idea…how about having China annex North Korea, or allowing it to happen? (Whether they want to is another question, of course.) The US is not exactly friendly with the PRC, but things are pretty stable there. China in general seems to value stability over just about any other consideration.
S’pose that would float in the West?
ETA: By which I mean, absorb the territory and people of what is now North Korea into the PRC, so that North Korea ceases to exist as a seperate country. Current border with South Korea would now be a border between China and South Korea. Or just Korea.
It would likely be an improvement. However, I doubt that China would want North Korea even if we paid them to take it.
Good god no. China is already coming close to accidentally starting a shooting war with Japan over the Senkoku/Diaoyu rocks. We are trying to set up a coalition in Asia to combat their growing militarism and expansion. We’re running into serious issues with them over their threats to Taiwan.
And you want to fuel this?
Giving them the green light to take over North Korea would turn them into monsters.
That is, if China wanted North Korea, and I don’t know if they would. It would create the same sort of chaos in China around North Korea and the Chinese don’t have the money to rebuild North Korea either. China’s major concern are keeping their minorities in check, bring in North Korea would create unbelievable stress. What are they supposed to do? Keep it forever? Once they have it, then granting independence would send a message to other minorities to agitate.
Then the North Koreans are going to like it. It’s one thing for the rulers of a country to keep it suppressed. When an outside country attempts to do this, then the backlash will tough. The military isn’t going to go along with this as it would be subjecting them to foreign authorities and taking away their independence. What would stop them from fighting back? A war with China would result in fewer South Koreans being killed, but maybe not any fewer North Koreans.
Probably nothing. I’m genuinely curious to see how this thing is deflated however. After all the shit talking clearly designed to get talks restarted is ignored, after missiles are launched and possibly shot down, what does Kim do? It seems like the rhetoric he’s been using the last few weeks is dangerously close to painting him into a corner where he can’t back down to save face.