I hope this isn’t under discussion in another thread - I didn’t see it.
With everyone and his brother hoping to get the GOP nomination, I wonder who will be the first to bow out, and how soon that will happen. My gut tells me Santorum will be among the first if not the first, but I’ve never been known to be politically savvy. And will said candidate go because of a scandal? Lack of financial support? Recognition that it’s hopeless to bother?
Whaddaya think?
Graham; he has no constituency. Santorum and Huckabee have religious conservatives, Jindal might have some too
Trump.
One can hope.
Impossible to predict because dropouts before Iowa will be based on gaffes or inability to raise money. Things like Rick Perry having such terrible debate performances, or Tim Pawlenty unable to generate much of anything approaching momentum despite being considered a contender. Rand Paul had a really disappointed fundraising number, but I think Paul will stay in awhile because that’s what Pauls do. So I have no idea who will drop out before Iowa.
But Iowa itself, that’s a little easier. A few candidates need a good performance in Iowa better than others. Jeb, Kasich and Christie consider NH to be their main stand. Losing in Iowa will not cause any of those three to drop out. But Walker, Huckabee, and Santorum need Iowa very badly. Two of those three aren’t leaving Iowa, possibly all three. So I’ll say Santorum is the most likely to be gone in 2016. The candidates like Carson, Jindal, and Pataki, and Fiorina, who don’t have high expectations right now, will not drop out until Iowa and NH are over, because they will all be hoping for a better than expected finish to generate buzz.
Lindsey Graham is being underestimated. He does have a constituency, moderate to conservative Republicans who supported John McCain. Will Graham win? No. But if you wanted one guy to be the cinderella candidate who does much better than anyone expected, he’s as good a candidate as any. He’ll be trying to win SC, which would give him the lead in delegates no matter what happens in IA and NH, and it would actually matter if he won SC since it’s not just assumed that he will. Graham is in 3rd place there and trails by only 2.5 points. There’s just no good reason for Graham to not go until SC.
As long as people are paying attention to him, Trump will hang around. I don’t think he wants to be president - I think he just loves the idea of making people think he wants to be president. And I expect part of his current popularity is because it’s way too early to be serious about the race. When things get real, he’ll be gone. You may quote me on that. (Because I’m such a reliable political analyst…)
I agree entirely, which is why I think it’s possible he might be the first out. Trump is all about the theater, so he will leave the race for entirely different reasons than the other candidates. He’s enjoying the show so far, but if he decides it will get him more attention to storm out of the race tomorrow, he’ll do that. The other candidates have real concerns and real consequences.
On the other hand, I saw CNN’s last poll and someone named Gilmore that I’ve never heard of is polling below 1%. That’s not promising.
Hey, adaher, somebody hacked your account!
I’ll go with Perry, because nobody gives a shit about him except him, and maybe not even him. He’s a fool, but without the ego and bluster to carry it off.
oh ok I revise this prediction to George Pataki. He barely polls 1% and has no chance for a comeback. He wasn’t even popular in New York: he declined to seek a fourth term thats how low his approvals were.
Some of these governor types need to get it: just getting elected more than once alone doesn’t make you popular: you need high approvals upon exit AND need to get more than one term.
Carly Fiorina. There isn’t a venue small enough that wouldn’t seat all of her admirers comfortably. Yeah, that corner booth in the diner ought to do it.
I forgot about Carly - yeah, she might beat Santorum out the door, perhaps getting wedged in, Three-Stooges style, with Perry.
Once Fox News announces the 10 who make it into the debate, the remaining candidates are basically done. They will become irrelevant to the conversation, dry up and blow away in the wind.
I doubt there will be anything close to 16 candidates by the time we get to Iowa. Even 10 would be surprising.
I predict 14. In order for a candidate to drop out before primaries start, one of three things have to happen:
I see three candidates in the third category: Jindal, Perry, and Christie. The latter two won’t make the first debate, so I’ll throw those two out possibly. The rest either have a chance to win or never did and knew they never did. Neither type of candidate drops out until they are good and ready.
There’s more than just one debate, and if Perry and/or Jindal raise enough money they can get their message out anyway. Heck, for Perry it might be an advantage to have an ironclad excuse to not debate.
And what “message” would that be, pray tell?
Gee thanks for the news flash. The second debate will also impose limitson the number of candidates onstage at one time. The top 10 will be included in one segment, those remaining who have at least 1% will be in the second. Being relegated to a debate for second tier candidates isn’t likely to help anyone much.
I’m sure being left out of the first debate and having to sit at the “kid’s table” for the second will really get the contributions rolling in.
Since Perry is seeing as little interest from donors this time around as he is voter interest, he’s probably not going to stick around long. He raised $17 million in his first quarter running in 2011. He’s raised just over $1 million in 2015.
Pataki, after the first debate lineup is set.
The only possible reason that I can think of that Pataki got into the race was a hope that the hard-core conservatives would each push each other so far into the radical right that he would have a chance as the only non-crazy moderate in the race. However, with Jeb getting significant traction (and more important funding), there isn’t even that long-shot window for Pataki. My view is that when he doesn’t get one of the 10 debate slots, he’ll throw in the towel.
I could easily see some differences in the top 10 between debates though. Right now the difference on the bubble of the first debate is smaller than the margins of sampling error in the polls. That produces some room for uncertainty even without real moves in support. Someone higher up could crater too. Even without dropping of the big stage, how their lost poll support splits could affect those on the cusp of moving up from the kiddy table for the second debate.
I agree with your points, particularly about candidates where the difference in ranking is smaller than the sampling error for the polls. I saw the head of the Marist poll being interviewed about just that issue last night. It is going to be pretty arbitrary in certain ways figuring out who to leave out of the Fox debate.
But.
As soon as the Fox 10 are announced there will be a winnowing of the chaff. Those left out will become largely irrelevant and find donations dry up. In the days immediately following the debate, the political news will be all about who said what in the debate. If you aren’t in the debate you have 0% chance of having your performance discussed. In a field this large, you can’t afford to be ignored by the media for very long.