But Buerhle isn’t that good. I mean, really, that’s the end of the discussion. He just isn’t a great pitcher. Unless he has a remarkable run in his late 30s, nobody is going to vote him in because the generation you defined that includes guys 20 years apart in age lack representativs (and of course, when all is said and done, it won’t.)
You didn’t even remember to include Dave Stieb in the 80s-90s generation, yet by any rational analysis, Stieb was a s good a pitcher as Buerhle. Stieb isn’t in the Hall of Fame and never will be. Buehrle will be the same.
I actually think Stieb deserves a lot more consideration for the HOF just like Billy Pierce, I didn’t mention Stieb because he wasn’t elected. As of right now Buehrle is not a Hall of Fame pitcher but with 2-3 more 3.0 type war seasons, I think he will have a very good case. As of right now Stieb and Pierce have around the same career war as Buehrle, Buehrle will out distance himself from them if he stays on his career pace.
War has gotta mean something going forward, they actually use it on the back of baseball cards now.
It’s already 1.7 this season. He’s pitching in 30 minutes vs Boston so I’m hoping he gets at least 0.3 war to give him a even 2.0 on the year.
He has really started out well this year.
-leads in war 1.7
-most wins with 4
-lowest era, 0.64
-leads in era plus 640
He will regress and I’m guessing he gets knocked around pretty hard tonight, especially vs Pedroia and Ortiz but if he ends up with a season war of 3.0-3.5, then he will have had a great season.
With 2 more 3 WAR seasons, he’ll have the same case but with six more WAR. He’ll still be Chuck Finley. Throwing a couple more league-average seasons is a nice accomplishment but it shouldn’t transform you from good guy, nice career to Hall of Famer just because it gets you near average Hall of Fame WAR; the Hall of Fame has guys like Koufax and Dizzy Dean and Addie Joss in it and total WAR doesn’t tell the same story in every case.
What Buehrle is is the same ERA+ as Tom Glavine, over fifteen hundred fewer innings, or, alternatively, the same number of innings as Pedro but with half as many strikeouts and an extra run allowed every game.
I don’t think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer. Though I’ve always enjoying seeing him pitch.
It’s interesting, though, to think of who from this “era” (I won’t say “generation”) will get in as a starting pitcher. Johnson, Martinez, and Smoltz (who was mostly a starter) become eligible in 2015, I think, and I would expect all three to get in. After that…well, among those who have recently finished their careers or who are finishing up, I don’t see anybody who’s a definite: I’d probably vote for Halladay, and I’m sure Pettitte will get some support, but they’re hardly slam-dunk types. and Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Bartolo Colon, Tim Hudson, Jamie Moyer, Buehrle–I don’t think they’re making it at all.
And among other active pitchers–Lee’s been good, Sabathia’s been good. I doubt they’ve been good enough, unless they put together a great finishing kick. Cain, Wainwright, Lester, Hamels? They don’t really strike me that way. Maybe I’m not being fair? I think it’s way too early to tell about the Strasburgs and Fernandezes and Kershaws and Harveys. Maybe Felix Hernandez, maybe Justin Verlander. but it’s a while (we hope) till either of them retires.
Is it possible that there will be no HoF starting pitchers between the retirement of Halladay-and-Pettitte (or even Johnson/Martinez/Smoltz) and the retirement of Hernandez and verlander? (assuming they make it) Are we going to have to ratchet our expectations downward to account for ever-dwindling numbers of innings pitched, or discover other expressions of starting pitcher dominance? Or are there a ton of guys who are CLEARLY going to the HoF who are in that 29-32 age range right now, and I’ve just forgotten them??
Koufax even with only 5 good seasons is a Hall of Famer and he’s in because of his incredible peak. Dizzy Dean should not be in the Hall of Fame and Addie Joss as great as he was probably shouldn’t be in either because he really didn’t meet the 10 year minimum. He was thrown a bone by the vets committee. Buehrle isn’t as dominating as any of these three but I would want a guy who pitches 17 or 18 years over a guy with a 5 year peak. Although I would take Koufax’s career over Buehrle.