Will Rand Paul win in Kentucky?

[RTFirefly]

@Zakalwe

Nor should you at this point. Money is limited and polls this far out are meaningless. If, in early October, you can say the same thing, then Conway is toast. But if, in early October, Paul is running tight on funds and Conway has a bankroll to spend, then Paul is toast. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

It may be a marathon, but the first leg is simple name recognition and visibility. Conway doesn’t have to spend a lot, but if he doesn’t have some well-placed billboards in cities like Louisville and Lexington, he’s fucking up. Similarly, he needs to be making public appearances that get him a few seconds of free TV on the evening news in those cities.

[Chronos]

It might make sense to conserve funds, but there’s a lot you can do for cheap. Internet ads are cheap. Holding a small speech and inviting the local media is cheap. Bumper stickers and yard signs are cheap. Word of mouth is darned near free, if you manage it right. If Conway isn’t doing any of those things, he’s making a big mistake.

[Duke]

UPDATE!!! (Sorry, channeling Robert Stack’s Unsolved Mysteries voiceover)

Rand Paul no longer in the lead in Kentucky, now in a 43-43 tie with his opponent. Biggest problem for Rand: the more people in Kentucky know him, the worse he does in the polls.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

Rand Paul also doesn’t support his previous idea of the underground fence.

[Simplicio]

@Least_Original_User_Name_Ever

Rand Paul also doesn’t support his previous idea of the underground fence.

Well, it sounds ridiculous when you call it an “underground fence”. It was an “electric underground fence”. See, much more sane sounding that way.

[Yossarian]

I made a 260 mile round trip through Eastern Kentucky today (Madison to Knott Co.), driving down the Mountain Parkway and back on the Hal Rogers Parkway. I saw exactly TWO political signs: one for Rand Paul…
…and one for Trey Grayson.

[Yossarian]

Speaking of bizarre tales of Rand Paul’s past (involving his involvement in the NoZe Brotherhood at Baylor this time):

U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul’s campaign says it is investigating its legal options but is not denying a report that the candidate while in college was involved in bizarre prank in which he and another student abducted a woman, tried to make her smoke marijuana and then forced her to bow down and praise a fictional god.

GQ magazine published the report on its website Monday quoting an anonymous woman who says that Rand Paul and a buddy kidnapped her while they were students at Baylor as a prank, making her try to take a hit from a bong and worship the “Aqua Buddha.”

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100809/NEWS0106/308090071

[Chronos]

I’m waiting until we get something a little more substantive than “not denying”. After all, Glenn Beck still isn’t denying what happened to that poor girl in 1991.

[DoctorJ]

Paul’s campaign is going so far as to threaten legal action about this story which they haven’t denied. I’m sure they just haven’t gotten around to it.

I loved this comment from the Editor-In-Chief of GQ:

We’ve vetted, researched, and exhaustively fact-checked Jason Zengerle’s reporting on Rand Paul’s college days, we stand by the story, and we gave the Paul campaign every opportunity to refute it. We notice that they have not, in fact, refuted it.

[Yossarian]

I’ll be interested to see how (if?) this plays here in Kentucky. I grew up in the Dallas area, I’m a Baylor alum, and Kentucky* is still BY FAR the most openly, passionately religious place that I’ve ever lived. I heard this item on the Lexington news this morning–they were putting strong emphasis on the “FALSE IDOL” part of the story; if anything surpresses Paul support amongst the strong Social Conservative but Nominally Democrat population here, that might.

*Non-Lexington, Non-Louisville.

[wonky]

That “kidnapping” story is just weird. They “kidnapped” her twice? Huh.

[The_Peyote_Coyote]

Last week, I visited the Great Comonwealth and drove from Glasgow to Burkesville (these are in the southern part of the state). I watched for them, but I only saw a couple of Ron Paul signs, so I’m gathering he’s not very popular in that part of the state.
However, one of my relatives said he thought that this year would be a very good year for Kentuckian Republicans to make gains.

[DoctorJ]

The political ads have just started to take over in the past few weeks, and so far it’s a bunch of mudslinging that no one is going to dig through.

I hate to be so cynical about the people of my beloved Commonwealth, but…this one is going to be decided in the last few weeks, and it’s going to come down to something stupid. Conway’s best chance is if Paul commits some huge gaffe late in the game (a good possibility) and the Dems are able to capitalize on it (not likely if he relies on the KY Dem establishment). Otherwise Paul has a small but consistent lead, and he hasn’t even started the gay-baiting yet. (Oh, there will be gay-baiting. This is Kentucky.)

[BrainGlutton]

@DoctorJ

(Oh, there will be gay-baiting. This is Kentucky.)

The land of Lincoln, and, by association, the Log Cabin Republicans.

(Boy, they ain’t goin’ for subtle. It’s, like, “So, how many logs have you had in your cabin, Senator?” )

[SmartAlecCat]

@Chronos

I’m waiting until we get something a little more substantive than “not denying”. After all, Glenn Beck still isn’t denying what happened to that poor girl in 1991.

nit: I think all that stuff he didn’t do to that poor girl was actually in 1990, not 1991.

Beck should really clarify these facts publicly…

[Gukumatz]

@BrainGlutton

@DoctorJ

(Oh, there will be gay-baiting. This is Kentucky.)

The land of Lincoln, and, by association, the Log Cabin Republicans.

(Boy, they ain’t goin’ for subtle. It’s, like, “So, how many logs have you had in your cabin, Senator?” )

You know, whenever I see the phrase “Log Cabin Republicans,” I think of a cozy outhouse.

[Boyo_Jim]

I always think of the Captain’s log, and that’s one log I’d rather not see.

[Ravenman]

Just another story of Rand Paul’s association with a fringe movement, the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons.

Among this association’s beliefs are:

“We just raise questions,” she said. “There is no settled science about anything. … If you are working on the wrong hypothesis, how are you ever going to get the right answer?”

So what are they “just asking questions about, man?”

But the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published an article in 2007 saying “both official reports and the peer-reviewed literature afford substantive grounds for doubting that HIV is the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS and that anti-retroviral treatment is unambiguously beneficial.” . . . .

The paper claims to examine Obama’s speeches “word by word, hand gesture by hand gesture, tone, pauses, body language, and proves his use of covert hypnosis intended only for licensed therapists on consenting patients.” . . . The AAPS article notes that the Obama campaign logo “might just be the letter ‘O,’ but it also resembles a crystal ball, a favorite of hypnotists.” . . . .

The association included in its journal an article criticizing governmental efforts to encourage people to stop smoking as costly and ineffective and suggesting that the focus on the addictive nature of nicotine is wrong. . . .

But maybe these are just isolated incidents. It’s not like they’re saying that those liberal lawyers and the EPA are behind 9/11 or the Challenger disaster, right?

Uh…

In its fall 2003 issue, the AAPS journal published a report suggesting that the twin towers at the World Trade Center collapsed on Sept. 11, 2001, because the New York City Port Authority, fearful of lawsuits and complying with new federal restrictions, stopped the use of flame-retardant asbestos midway through construction of the north tower. . . . Schlafly also contends in the article that the use of asbestos might have prevented the tragedies involving the Challenger and Columbia space shuttles.

Now, I’m just relating this mostly for kicks. I’m not sure that any new story of Rand Paul’s associations (short of a live boy or dead girl) could directly lead to him to lose, but there is some evidence that the race is tightening. Is Conway finally starting to run a campaign or something?

[BrainGlutton]

SourceWatch on the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons:

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a group of conservative activist doctors who oppose the 2010 health care reform law, the “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.”[1] Members of the group also believe that President Obama may have hypnotized voters and that climate legislation is a threat to human health. Some of the group’s former leaders were members of the John Birch Society. Mother Jones wrote of the group, “Yet despite the lab coats and the official-sounding name, the docs of the AAPS are hardly part of mainstream medical society. Think Glenn Beck with an MD.”[2]

<snip>

False leprosy claim
The Spring 2005 edition of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons contained an article[4] by Madeleine Cosman, headlined “Illegal Aliens and American Medicine,” claiming, “Suddenly, in the past three years America has more than 7,000 cases of leprosy,” citing a 2003 article in the New York Times as a reference. Among news outlets repeating this claim were WorldNetDaily[5] and CNN anchor Lou Dobbs. In fact, the 7,000 number in the Times article was an apparent reference to all then-current cases of leprosy in the U.S.; according to the National Hansen’s Disease Program of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, there have been just 431 reported cases of Hansen’s disease (leprosy) over the “past three years.”[6]
Political contributions
Donations to political candidates by the AAPS’ political action committee in 2000 and 2004 skewed rightward, with donations given to candidates registered as Republican, Libertarian or with the Constitution Party.[7][8]
Positions on health issues
Mother Jones, discussing AAPS’s journal (called the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons), writes,

The publication’s archives present a kind of alternate-universe scientific world, in which abortion causes breast cancer and vaccines cause autism, but HIV does not cause AIDS. Cutting carbon emissions represents a grave threat to global health (because environmental regulation would make people poorer and, consequently, sicker) … The organization opposes some of the most accepted practices in health care, including mandatory vaccine regulations. Peer review, a long-standing hospital practice that helps doctors learn from and prevent errors, is viewed as the source of great injustice by AAPS, which fights attempts to micromanage doctors with such bureaucratic nuisances as medical evidence about what works and what doesn’t. Computers, too, are an ominous threat. The organization has resisted the use of electronic medical records—which, naturally, represents an attempt by the government to acquire masses of private information about American citizens. (AAPS’ executive director claims to keep all her patient notes in longhand.)[9]

Doctors for Disaster Preparedness
The website for the group Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) is registered to Jeremy Snavely of AAPS. [10] DDP and AAPS also share the same mailing address, in Tucson, Arizona. [11] [12]

DDP is skeptical of climate change, as the title of their web page on the subject suggests: “Ozone hole, Global warming, and other Environmental Scares.” [13]

[Simplicio]

The AAPS certainly seems nutty, but what specifically is Rand Pauls association with them? I’m a little wary of reports that Candidate X is “associated with” whatever nutty organization, as they often turn out to be fairly tenuous links.