Does China have a mutual defense agreement with North Korea just like the US has with South Korea?
If North Korea unilaterally attacked South Korea, and the US came to the defense of South Korea, is it likely China would come to the defense of North Korea?
It has been said many times
Wiki:
In 1961, the two countries signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, whereby China pledged to immediately render military and other assistance by all means to its ally against any outside attack.[8] This treaty was prolonged twice, in 1981 and 2001, with a validity until 2021.
That’s ‘outside’ attack.
So yes, they do.
However, the world is a much different place than it was in the 1950’s. China doesn’t want a Korean War Part 2 any more than the US does. If a war actually does break out, I suspect China’s aid to North Korea might be somewhat less than decisive. Especially if it’s the North that starts the war.
If the South is able to thwart an invasion from the North and the US didn’t have to jump in right away I suspect that China would hold off, at least for a little while, especially if the North started the fighting, but once the US and other allies join in all bets are off.
Does anyone know the likely outcome of a conventional war between the South and the North, e.g. the North didn’t use their nuclear weapons? Are they fairly evenly matched at this point with similar military technology? Does the US have tactical nukes in Korea other than those that might be on subs or warships off shore?
In simplistic terms - NK has more boots on the ground and SK has more and better equipment. Without nukes, it’s hard to see how NK could win. The problem is that they might use the nukes if things started to go badly.
As I understand it, North Korea’s weaponry is fairly antiquated, but they have a huge numerical advantage.
I’ve read that North Korea has a big artillery battery set up within range of Seoul, so any war would likely begin with South Korea’s capital getting pummelled.
And the US troops are basically intended as a “speed bump” to stall any Northern advance until the powers that be could coordinate a reponse. The (mostly unstated) assumption is that the US troops already in Korea would likely get slaughtered fairly early in the conflict.
So, if Kim Jong Whoever really wants war, things could get ugly fast.
The phrase I remember hearing from the Cold War is “tripwire”. The Cold War context is the Berlin Brigade: If the Soviets pushed into West Germany, we’d die alongside the Bundeswehr. Our blood would be shed.
Likewise, Operation Desert Shield was never expected to stop an actual Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia: it was just to raise stakes by making it impossible to invade SA without killing the 82nd Airborne and the 1st Fighter Wing.
That is our earnest against our treaty commitments in a mutual-defense pact: we have skin in the game.
I’ve read quite a few books on NK, not much of it revoled around their military though.
However, an Army marches on it’s stomach. I think transportation/manufacturing general infrastructure (and lack of food) would ultimately be the downfall of any attempt to advance on SK. Unless I guess, they do it so quickly they capture much of SK resources.
The thousands of a artilary pieces pointed at Seoul are problematic. Wonder how we could take them out? FAE’s might rattle them enough to put them out of commision?
The question is whether or not the US would respond in kind if they did. One SSBM sitting a few hundred miles off NK would scare the crap out of them IF they believed the US would.
We like to assume the NK leadership is bluffing in an attempt to gain something as a result, but what is their end game? How does anyone, besides the fearless leader, benefit? The people of NK are brainwashed and starving, and would likely do anything for their leader. But would the great leader order what would clearly be a suicide mission that could result in the complete devastation of his country? How would he benefit from that?
He probably wants to get into just enough of a tiff with the US and SK to say to the peasants that he has repelled an invasion by the dreadful murdering capitalists. I assume he would propped up on the pedestal a little higher.
A very fine line.
I thought of that, but he’s the supreme leader/total dictator already. How much more propped up can you get? And meanwhile he’s playing a very dangerous game…
Heck he’s already more than that. Many people in NK see him as a type of God. He’s also a bit nutso.
Nonetheless, a despot’s defining psychological characteristic is a kind of toxic narcissism. So the fear and adoration of his peasant masses is absolutely necessary, and the worst thing in the world to him is that he will be somehow diminished and less feared and adored.
A cult of personality is not a static self-sustaining thing, after all.
Thus, the constant dominance games designed to give him cheap victories over the capitalist running-doc lackeys and pump up his ego and PR.
No doubt and well said.
I really wish we could completely ignore him. But that would proably push him over the line.
He’s delusional. He actually thinks he could win a war. As long as he can look over his shoulder and see China there with their army, he’s brave.
North Korean stomachs are pretty shriveled, though.
For an English version of a S.Korea news site:
I can’t get it to load now, but here is a link to English N. Korea news:
www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm
What makes u think that China is standing over their shoulder? Their treaty is a defensive one.