Do we know what “attack” means in this context? If NK invaded SK, and then US troops assisted SK but strictly within the borders of SK, would that be an “attack”? Doesn’t seem like it. If nothing else, it might give the Chinese a way of watching on the sidelines so long and until any US boots crossed the border.
That is actually a pretty big deal for reducing the risk. To the extent that NK trust China to intervene if there’s an existential threat to them it takes the worst case off the table. They can start a war, lose badly, and still survive it.
I thought Wikileaks revealed that privately, China is fine with a reunified Korea. One run by Seoul, by the way.
Did this end up not being the case?
And Kim Jong Un will tell his country that they pushed back an attack by SK and the US imperialists. Most people in NK believe that the 1950 war was started by South Korea.
The few ‘haves’ don’t want to rock the boat. The rest of the agrarian society is in the dark. Literally.
This is changing though as cell phones are being smuggled over the NK/Chinese border. Many though, still believe that any outside information they get is propaganda. Hard for them to believe that the common man can own a car, or eat rice every day. (rice is a luxury to the common man, they live on corn. When they can get it)
And NK has their own propaganda department to write books and newspapers that look like they are from SK. This ‘news’ talks about how horrible the rest of the world is and how great the Kims are and that NK is the best country on earth. This info is from NK defectors.
Obviously nobody really in charge in North Korea believes there will be an attack from South Korea or the United States. There is no need for a defensive treaty, although as mentioned above, there is one in place. It’s more academic than actual. Another thing is that China will not tolerate North Korea making a major move, such as an all out attack on the South, to “destabilize the Korean Peninsula”. And if you’re really curious about how seriously North Korea considers an attack from the South, check out the joint venture at Kaesung–it’s still going strong and the North hasn’t kicked out the South’s folks doing business there.
The blather about defending against attacks from the South is more for domestic consumption. It also is a convenient talking point to use to get some kind of concessions from South Korea, the United States, Japan, or any combination of those countries.
Both the US & SK are going to be delivering a lot of ordnance into NK within minutes of hostilities beginning. So from the git-go US & SK military personnel are going to be inflicting damage on NK even if they themselves are standing on the SK side of the border.
And within a couple hours tops, even more will be being delivered by manned aircraft. So very, very soon we are going to have both US & SK military personnel engaged in active hostilities inside NK airspace / sea-space. Some of whom, inevitably, will be shot down, meaning US & SK personnel, dead and alive, on NK soil.
The idea that there’s some tripwire that’s only breached when US or SK infantry cross the border on foot is silly. Or more accurately, that’s a distinction that’s not much of a difference from the NK’s and hence China’s POV.
To be sure for US domestic consumption there’s a difference between risking 50 officer pilots and 5000 enlisted M-16 operators over/on NK soil. But IMO the Chinese don’t view the various escalations as being very distinct from one another. A shooting war on their border *will *have their undivided attention and they will do what they think they need to to defend their interests as they define them at the moment.
M-16 operators?
You’re right. They’ll never cross the Yalu.
I suspect it’s not all that simple, either way.
A bit of an aside, but I understand the current hostilities are over SK loudspeakers aimed north. I assume these are on SK territory and not in the DMZ. As the DMZ is several miles wide… just how freakin’ loud are these systems? And all inherent chest-beating and propaganda aside, who exactly is around within hearing range except NK border troops, who I ass/u/me are among the more committed and vetted regulars?
Well, they’re probably M-4 or M-16A4s now, but personally, I like that phase.
Can we really assume that North Korea’s weapons (including their nukes) will fire on a consistent and accurate basis? Will all those missiles pointed at Seoul really reach their destination?
I don’t believe that they have the resources to constantly test their weaponry. Don’t modern arms need to be cleaned and fired regularly in order for them to remain in good working order?
Seoul is close enough they could inflict significant damage with catapults. Even shitty missiles and artillery could kill hundreds of thousands before the west responds.
Tokyo isn’t out of reach, either, and I’d bet that if Lil Kimmy goes all the way around the bend, the missiles will fly both directions at once.
It’s true that I have guns that function perfectly well that are as old or older than the NK’s arty. I do have to wonder how well maintained NK’s guns are. And how many shells they have for them.
And I wonder what would be the response to knock out those guns. There are a few thousand of them I think, pointing at Seoul. They must be in a pretty concentrated area to have the ability to reach Seoul.
It’s over 10k last time I checked, and a lot of them are dug into some serious fortifications and pretty much zeroed in on Seoul. And they have literal mountains of shells for those guns. They could and would do a lot of damage.
That said, once the shock of losing Seoul was up, the NK’s would pretty much be out of tricks and threats except for nukes…and I seriously doubt they have any sort of delivery system for the few they have. They certainly don’t have the ability to push their conventional military forces through the DMZ and very far into South Korea, and once the SKs and the US (and probably just about everyone else) started attacking their infrastructure it would all come crashing down. What China would do at that point is the 64,000 dollar question though. My guess is they would insist on installing some sort of puppet government or perhaps annexation, though I doubt they would want to (they will be more worried about the literal flood of NK refugees trying to pour across the border and into China).
All in all, nobody wants a war on the Korean peninsula except those idiots in the North. I doubt most South Korean’s want reunification at this point, since it would be a hell of a lot worse economically as well as politically than the reunification of Germany was…especially since they would also be having to rebuild their capital and bury 10’s of thousands of citizens and the wreckage of the NK military AND civilian infrastructure that would be wiped out in such a war. Sadly, all of this might be out of everyone hands at this point, since the NKs seem to be pushing things right to the edge, and it’s obvious that the South isn’t in the mood to be pushed around anymore.
The entire population of South Korea in 2014 was estimated to be 51,302,044.
So, you have a densely populated area, containing about half South Korea’s entire population, extending approximately one half the length of the dividing line between the two countries. North Korea’s artillery doesn’t have to be concentrated to reach Seoul. The artillery doesn’t even have to concentrate on the target to do massive damage.
Forgive my ignorance, as I am relatively unfamiliar with more modern weapons and their usage.
I was under the impression that all but the most absurd artillery pieces had a maximum range of <20 miles, while the city of Seoul proper is 30-35 miles away. I see very impressive inventory numbers thrown about, but only the largest conventional pieces would be able to throw shells the 15-25 miles closing in on Seoul. I would imagine that these relatively few pieces would be concentrated about the city, but being slow to load and even slower to move, wouldn’t they be perhaps the most vulnerable to counter-battery fire?
Is it just that the suburbs of Seoul extend closer to the DMZ?
Wow. South Koreans yearn for reunification like a mother yearns for her lost child. There are also lots of broken families.
Well, one expects China wouldn’t necessarily be bound to help North Korea against a Chinese invasion 
Do you know why there are “broken families”? Because North Korea refuses to allow people to leave. And that includes those people those bastards kidnapped from the south over the years.
Yeah, I understand how big Seoul is. And the surrounding area is quite populated.
So say the width of the country there is about 100 miles. Halving that gives you 50 miles. Now the guns wouldn’t be in a line of course, but if they where, 10,000 guns would put one every 26 feet.
Makes me think that the ‘10,000 guns pointed at Seoul’ number is highly exaggerated.