ISTM that this cuts both ways. On the one hand, it makes him look like such a pariah that even Republicans won’t support him. On the other hand, it plays into his narrative that he’s a true outsider opposed by “the establishment”, and if he tacks to the middle for the general election and given his history, could help him appear relatively non-ideological.
It’s essentially meaningless unless it continues after the convention and he’s still the nominee.
What it means is that some percentage of Republicans who would normally vote for the party nominee won’t this time. They probably won’t vote for Hillary, they probably won’t vote for a third-party candidate, they’ll simply stay home.
Is Trump going to inspire enough people who wouldn’t have voted for a Republican to make up for loyal Republicans who wouldn’t vote for Trump? I think it’s possible but not likely.
On balance I think it’s going to hurt him. It increases the possibility of Republicans staying home. It makes raising money more difficult. And it creates the impression in the minds of uncommitted voters that Trump simply doesn’t have the competence to be President.
On the flipside as mentioned it does raise his outsider status but I think at this point that brings diminishing returns. Trump is already viewed as an outsider, becoming more of one doesn’t help him that much.
Trump will probably try to tack to the middle but I don’t think it will help much. He has lost the trust of large sections of the electorate that he needs including women and minorities. Just changing positions won’t bring back that trust; it may even backfire and make him look like a complete opportunist. And tacking left will increase the number of conservatives who stay home. He may lose more votes from the right than he gains in the center because many centrist voters already dislike him.
Trump has already tacked to the middle, the right, the left and pretty much anywhere the wind took him on any particular day, in front of any particular crowd.
He’s going to raise taxes on the rich, except that he’s not going to actually go ahead with that plan, but he’s going to re-write his tax plan to tax them, but actually not much but some and not at all which means, of course, a lot.
He’s totally pro-choice if that means jailing any woman who seeks an abortion, which he is completely against, unless it is needed because it’s her choice and that’s FINAL.
All Muslims will be banned from entry, except of course powerful businessmen, and Trump’s friends, and Mayors of large cities, but other than that, every one of them, except for the ones that are let in, because we’re banning ALL Muslims except for the ones we don’t.
It will hurt because we’re not just talking about the GOP establishment, but also many on the far right are denouncing Trump.
Right.
But I would think being denounced by the far-right would be helpful to Trump with middle-of-the-road people. And since there are a lot more middle-of-the-road people than far-right people, and additionally since far-right people are not exactly thrilled at the prospect of HRC becoming president, being denounced by far-right people is probably a net positive for Trump.
But a lot of his supporters are what we’d call far right on non-social issues. He could lose them if he really acts moderate. Now if he were a moderate and was condemned by the far right, he could pick up more votes than he’d lose, but he is so all over the place I doubt it would happen.
If the real Republicans stay home, then it will hurt those down ticket, which might be why Republicans in Pennsylvania are backing away from him. They don’t think Trump support is going to win them moderate votes.
Those far right people have nowhere else to go. Trump can move hard left and still have some space between himself and Clinton.
But beyond that, there seem to be a lot of people for whom issues of any sort are - at this time - less important than personality. They undoubtedly have opinions about issues like anyone else, but what seems to be their overriding concern is that a guy be able to tell it like it is and act independently, which is an image that Trump has managed to cultivate, and this seems to be the core of his current support. My suggestion is that the Republican Party leadership distancing themselves from Trump helps with that, and if he can keep up even a toned down version of that image while wriggling out of his more outrageous positions, then he could be helped by that.
“Tell it like it is?” Trump lies at least as much as your average politician, whether or not his supporters want to acknowledge it.
When he said he could go out on the street and shoot somebody, and his people would still vote for him, he was pretty much telling it like it was.
As I said, it’s “an image that Trump has managed to cultivate”.
I’m as surprised as the next guy that so many people have supported him on this basis - or on any basis - but they have, and when discussing his prospects it’s a mistake to ignore that fact.
The problem with this theory is that while people on the far right want to deny this, the middle of the road voters already have a middle of the road candidate: Hillary Clinton. While the Republican party has been moving to the right, the Democratic party has been moving to the center. And Bernie Sanders has reminded everyone that Hillary Clinton is not a left-winger.
And the problem with that theory is that it does not happen to be true.
HRC is “middle-of-the-road” compared to progressives, but she is very much to the left of the average American.
Bernie Sanders helps her depict herself as moderate, true, but he also forced her to move to the left during primary season, so that cuts both ways.
Yeah, I’d have to agree with this. Trump has two constituencies; the far right, and anyone of any stripe who is so angry at the system they just want to throw a wrench into the whole works. I kinda feel that way myself, but not enough to go full-crazy and vote for Trump.
No, she’s not. She and Obama both are to the right of average Americans, that is when they’re questioned about issues and substance rather than buzzwords.
OK, we’re going to have to leave at that. I disagree.
They can stay home. George Will has already attacked Trump as not a real conservative, and I think you can expect to see more of that from the anti-Trump right. Since Trump has been on both sides of lots of issues, there is ample documentation for such an attack. He gave money to Hillary, he is for LGBT rights (as compared to the rest of the bunch, at least) and he is hardly evangelical.
I agree with you about Trump’s lies not having an impact. While he is the biggest liar around, after 20 years and more of Fox News this is hardly a negative for a Republican.
Huh? I’d really like some substantiation for that assertion.