We should have a pool for this, either for the date/race when it is finally broken and/or for the runner who ends up doing it; definitely within the next year or so. I read an article a few years ago that tried to extrapolate the long tail into the future, iirc it suggested it would fall in the late 2020’s, which now looks to be overly pessimistic, since now every top endurance runner will likely be gunning for it to be the one who goes into the history books.
I think people were saying similar things about a 3:50 mile when Jim Ryan ran 3:51.1, and a 3:45 after Steve Cram’s 3:46.32. Both took eight years to be reached.
Neither did I. Thought that Kipchoge’s run was an amazing feat (and of course it was), but that no one would ever do that in a real race, without the pacers-slash-windbreaks and the most efficient path painted on the street that Kipchoge had.
Now, it feels like a matter of time - 2:00:35 is so much closer than 2:01:09.
Of course, now we’re all clamoring to see Kiptum and Kipchoge race. Scuttlebutt I’ve heard is that Nike made Kiptum do Chicago rather than Berlin because they wanted to have both races won by one of theirs.
I remember reading somewhere that there are special requirements for a marathon course to be eligible for a world record. Runners shouldn’t get an advantage from running downhill or with a tailwind, so the start and finish have to be within a certain distance, both horizontally and vertically.
The Boston Marathon, for example, would not qualify for a world record.
Chicago’s course is eligable, the start and finish lines are very close to each other. As long as the course is accurately measured that should be enough.
Yes, and the governing body must have checked the course in advance. I just find the details of those sorts of things to be interesting. I’m sure there’s an involved process for measuring the course as accurately as required.
The odd thing, though, is that (so far as I’m aware) there are no rules against collusion within a race to pace a record attempt. That can surely make as much difference as gradient or wind. Perhaps it’s just that in practice there aren’t enough runners who are in that ultra-elite class that you could have three in a line in front breaking the wind for the first half.
I think some distance races actually hire pace setters to run at particular speeds to help the competitors. Everyone starts at the beginning though, so at some point the winner will separate and finish on his own.
When Kipchoge did his staged attempts to break the two-hour mark, pacers came and went so he’d have drafting partners all the way to the end.
Marathon paces have always been the athletic feat that breaks my brain the most. Sprints, lifting, throwing, etc all seem comprehensible. At my most athletic (starting varsity soccer player) I could have run at that pace for probably like 200m. I’m definitely not naturally athletic, but being fit and just dying after 30-40 seconds of what someone does for 2 hours is amazing.
Yeah, when I was about 35 and in very good shape I could do 10km in 37 min, pretty good for a mortal (6-minute miles). Just to see what it felt like, I once set up world record marathon pace on a running machine. I’m not sure it’s even possible now, most of them have much more conservative speed limits out of liability concerns. I think I managed about 30 seconds, but I wasn’t really sure how long I was at full speed because I had to concentrate on not tripping and flying off.
It’s hard to believe that these guys are the same species.
There’s a speed monitor on my running path and it clocked me at 10mph along the straightest, flattest stretch. I could do that for a mile, tops. Going faster than that for 2 hours straight is just nuts.