Ah, that makes the “lottery” statement make sense then.
After my experience with the live card at my local track, and my Derby bets, I’m starting to doubt my own wisdom. 
What does it mean to be “too good?” I would have said that good = ‘at or near the front at the finish’.
Well…sort of. I’m talking about how the horse looks on paper, before the race; especially given his racing history and as compared to the other horses.
It has to do with the “class” of the horse. This is not a standardized and objective grade the horse is assigned by some ruling body; but rather, it’s something arrived at by weighing certain factors. Most often, when discussing class, major factors include claiming prices or purses.
Let’s take an outlandish (and completely fictional) example. Suppose Secretariat is in his prime. He regularly wins purses in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. For some reason, he is entered to run in a race for a $10,000 purse. Why is he wasting his time running for so little when there is no horse in the race that could reasonably challenge him–who is in the same class, in other words? Why not race against those who can reasonably challenge him, and who are also worthy of racing for a huge purse? Meanwhile, the horses in the $10,000 race probably have little hope of ever racing for more money–they’re simply not good enough to race for more. Secretariat would be said to “outclass” the rest of the horses in the $10,000 race; or in other words, he is too good for the race.
In real life, the class of the horse is often far more difficult to discern. Horses move up and down in class all the time–from $7000 claiming races to $9000 claiming races, to $15,000 races, and back down to $9000 races if they cannot hack the competition at the higher class. An owner wants the horse to move up if at all possible, since it is usually the case that the higher the class, the higher the purses. Some horses do nothing but move up in class, others stay more or less at the same level. Still others respond to a new trainer (or other change in the people who work with the horse) by racing like they’re worthy of racing at a higher and richer class. So they do. Sometimes they do well there, and go even higher. Or they respond to the change by falling in class.
This is what I meant by “Some horses are too good for this race, others aren’t good enough.” On paper, Mine That Bird was outclassed. He wasn’t good enough to race in the $2M Derby, when his richest race ever was for $900K. But he was sure “at the front at the finish.” I guess he proved most of us DRF-readers wrong.
Hope this answers your question.
Useful information - thanks.
But I would have thought that the Kentucky Derby is the biggest of the big leagues, and that the best horse in the world isn’t too good for it. Are there really some horses being held out of it because the purse and competition don’t come up to their level?
So if a horse is “too good” for the race, do people suspect that there’s something wrong with the horse and then bet against it? I don’t follow horse racing or boxing, but I’d imagine that when Tyson was signed up to fight Buster Douglas some people (the ones betting on Douglas, obviously) must have thought that Tyson had issues or he wouldn’t even be in this fight.
No, you’re right–the Derby is among the biggest of the big leagues. Horses aren’t being held out of it (or similar races) because they’re too good; at the level of the Derby, there’s really nowhere left for them to go. But there are very few horses that can race at the level of the Derby.
Most racehorses aren’t Derby-class, and so, most races aren’t the Derby. On any given racing day, there are up to ten or so races on a card. Some of these are claiming races, maiden races, allowance races, and the like. Purses and claiming prices vary, and these are the races where you find horses moving up and down in class. But when I said, “Some horses are too good for this race, others aren’t good enough,” I didn’t mean the Derby–I was speaking about your average, everyday race; nothing special. Sorry for any confusion.
Sometimes, yes, and you’ve just hit on what a “class handicapper” does. If I’m class handicapping and I notice that a horse has been running in $20K claiming races and doing not too badly at that level, then suddenly is entered in a $10K claiming race, I have two choices: bet him (because he’s proven that he can do well against horses of a better class than the $10K race and it should be an easy win), or not bet him (because he’s dropped in class and there must be something wrong with him). The same choices apply if he’s a $10K runner who suddenly moves up in class to a $20K race: bet him (because maybe the trainer thinks he’s ready and should be competing at this level), or not bet him (because the horse has no hope against this class of competition).
This is a very simplistic view of class handicapping and there are many other things to consider, but I hope it serves to answer your question.