Anyone want to discuss Saturday’s Kentucky Derby? Will I Want Revenge avenge his father’s 1999 loss? Will Pioneer ofthe Nile be first to the finish line? Will Friesan Fire keep his trainer from being burned by three straight second place finishes in the Derby? Will Dunkirk battle his way to the wire first?
I’m up for any Derby-related subjects.
We’re depressed here that it’s raining. Of course, I work in television and we’re shooting for a documentary there, so it’s strictly professional. 
I haven’t been to the Derby myself in years! I went to college in Louisville, though, and it was always a great time. Finals + Chow Wagon = Exhaustion.
Well, here’s what I sent to a bunch of friends:
"Rocket Surgery’s " Annual Derby Drivel
2 years ago, I had an actual opinion on who I thought would win (Street Sense; yay me). Not this year. This year all you get are some comments, and my betting strategy (if you can call “betting more than half the field” a strategy).
That said, on to the comments! I will divide the field into groupings, then suggest how I might bet them.
** Logical Contenders**
No real surprises here. The logical contenders are I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. I Want Revenge was a decent horse, if a cut below the best, in his first six races - all run on synthetic surfaces. Then he ran on dirt and romped in the Gotham, then overcame a horrible trip in the Wood (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUUdR0fXCNo) to earn Derby favoritism. He has no real negatives and would be as logical a winner as anyone. Dunkirk is lightly raced (just 3 races) but has shown a world of talent in his last two – overcoming a ridiculously wide trip in an allowance on 2/19 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnjyjAaR88A) and making a visually impressive, although futile, move on the turn in the Florida Derby against now-injured Quality Road (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gSVgxFO9gY). No horse has won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old since 1882, but otherwise Dunkirk looks dangerous. Friesan Fire won all 3 prep races in Louisiana, the last a 7 ¼ length win in the slop, to loom the next main danger. He’s a bit short on Beyers (top 104) but comes into this off a 7 week rest and a fast workout reminiscent of trainer Larry Jones’ last workout for 2007 second finisher Hard Spun. He will be even tougher if the track is wet on Saturday.
** I Dunnos**
Here are a pair that could finish just about anywhere in the field without surprising me. Pioneerof the Nile has won four straight stakes races for three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert. He has employed a variety of running styles and is bred to love more distance. The problem? All of those wins have come over synthetic surfaces, and his Beyer figures have all been 96 or lower – and this race typically demands a figure of 108 or so from the winner. He’s not yet run any races on dirt. His works over the Churchill look good, but that’s no guarantee he will perform at the same level, which probably wouldn’t be good enough anyway. On the plus side, two horses he defeated during the win streak, Papa Clem and I Want Revenge, have come back to win major preps, so the speed figures could be misleading. But we won’t know for sure until he runs on Saturday. One further issue with him is that in his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXMN2wV6KzY), he was agitated and sweaty before loading; then prematurely moved to the lead against the wishes of his jockey. He won anyway, so this has been overlooked, but if he is hard to handle on Saturday, this could sap his energy long before the Churchill stretch. A lot of question marks for a horse who will be one of the favorites. My other unknown is Desert Party, who prepped in Dubai. Last time in the UAE Derby, he ran a good second to Regal Ransom, but I prefer Desert Party because Regal Ransom was helped by a rather strong speed-biased track in that race. Some speed figure makers thought the UAE Derby was fast and some thought it was slow – I wish I knew who to believe because with a fast figure, Desert Party would look tough but if it was slow, his other races would not be competitive here.
Live Longshots
With a 20-horse field there are bound to be a couple of horses who have tempting odds. I hope these are some of them – I like Hold Me Back, General Quarters and West Side Bernie to possibly get at least into the money. Hold Me Back is generally being looked at as a synthetic specialist because he finished 5th in his only dirt race, but he was well off some very slow fractions in that race and was not going to finish strongly against Old Fashioned, who was cantering alone on the lead. Hold Me Back still ran a race that was consistent with his other races at the time and has finished very strongly in both starts this year. He has 3-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux aboard and offers good value. General Quarters beat Hold Me Back in the Blue Grass and has already run a good race on dirt in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. He gets super jockey Julien Leparoux on Saturday and could definitely be a factor. West Side Bernie hasn’t been training the best, but he had excuses in his first two races this year before a decent second in the Wood and figures to be enough of a price that it’s worth taking a shot with him.
** Playables**
These are horses who I don’t quite like as much as the above, but would not be a real surprise. I just don’t expect them to offer value. Chocolate Candy has been very consistent – unfortunately his consistency has not been the fast type of consistency. He hasn’t tried dirt yet and would have to improve to be a factor here. He does look good in the mornings, so it could happen . Papa Clem ran a good one in the Arkansas Derby, but hasn’t not looked good in the mornings since then. He would also have to improve, but I don’t really see it. Musket Man has won two Derby preps and has beaten General Quarters twice. He’s just too slow and is not bred to improve at the Derby distance.
** Strategy**
I plan to play the contenders with, and over, the longshots, attempting to get the price horse in the proper spot. I may also use the unknowns with the longshots.
Good luck to all, and may they all come home safely!
It appears the Derby isn’t as popular among your average Doper as your average Kentuckian!
I haven’t been following as closely this year as I normally do; however, after watching all day Saturday I’ll probably have some firm opinions.
The topic of horse racing gets very little attention on this board. More is the pity.
This is INRS’s 2008 Breeders Cup thread. There was a field of precisely two. I’d like to contribute to this one but (a) I’m not familiar with the runners and (b) I’ve got two of our own Classics to worry about this weekend. 
I won a nice pile on General Quarters at the Bluegrass. He ran a good race, and we’ll probably hear his story a few dozen times before the Derby (basically, he’s owned, trained, groomed, and everything by a retired high school teacher–it was awesome seeing his whole family out on the turf after the Bluegrass win). I don’t know if he’s got the stuff to beat this field, but he’ll be a sentimental favorite.
More importantly, I’ve got a couple of bottles of fresh mint syrup made and a couple of liters of Makers in the cabinet. Today I’ll be working on the homemade beer cheese, Benedictine, and bourbon sauce for the pork shoulder I’ll be putting on the smoker early in the morning. We Kentuckians sure know how to overdo it for a two-minute race.
I didn’t grow up in Kentucky, but I lived there for several years. I like the excitement of the Derby and horse racing in general, but I never got around to following the different horses. So, I don’t have a horse in the race (so to speak) but its a fantastic spring event.
Lived in Lousiville for 2 years and I was lucky enough to attend one Derby…though it was in the infield (I think that’s what it was called) and I didn’t even see a horse. Since then I’ve watched every Derby and have started to learn about racing. My brain tells me to go with Friesan Fire or Dunkirk, but my gut tells me Pioneer…so I’m going with my gut. For shits and giggles I put 10 on Desert Party as well…I can’t recall ever seeing a desert horse win the Derby before. I’m sure others better versed in this would know better. With I want Revenge scratching, I put my trifecta as Pioneer, Dunkirk, Freisan…safe bet I guess.
Is it raining there? Any of the horses have history with a wet track?
So… When is the race, anyway?
OK, I’ve found a broadcast. They just had the National Anthem. I think there’s more than an hour to go.
National Anthem Gal has some serious eyebrows going on.
I pick my favorites by their names so I am rooting for General Quarters and Chocolate Candy.
Did you hear about the gelding who was a favourite to win the race, but balked at the last minute?
Apparently he was too embarrassed to race when the call went out, ‘They’re off!’
I’m rooting for General Quarters- like the story behind him and the look of him. Racing could use another underdog winner.
If not, I like Friesen Fire.
Forgot to add-
Very disappointing coverage- I know they are probably trying to cut down on the chances of a catastrophic injury on live tv but there are several races at Churchhill Downs. I’d much rather see those than intervies with off season NFL players. They could have at least shown the Kentucky Oaks.
Congrats to Mine That Bird and the jockey, Ernest T. Bass.
Fun race! I love when an under dog wins!
I could only understand a few words he was saying. I’ve been to New Orleans many times, but I guess the accents are different outside of the city.
So this was the first Kentucky Derby I’ve watched. It looks like an interesting sport. Prior to this, the only exposure I’ve had to horse racing has been the innumerable Santa Anita ads when I was in L.A., knowing a friend’s wife’s father used to be a jockey, and Seattle Slew (as I drive by sloughs frequently). Oh, and Spike Jones’s William Tell Overture (‘Cabbage is second by a head (Cabbage by a head!)’).
Very fun race!!!
I grew up in Louisville, so I have fun memories of family drunkfests…I mean Derby Parties.
This morning, the SO, looking at the paper, says “Well! This is a day that should resonate with your heritage!”
Me<thinking>: Is this a German thing? (German last name) What horrible thing did Germans do on May 2nd? I’ve been to a Maifest before (like an Oktoberfest, but in May)? What is he talking about? May 2?
Then LIGHTBULB!
Me: “Omigod! It’s Derby Day!”
So we went to Goodwill and picked up some hats to wear, hit the liquor store for bourbon and the grocery store for mint. Unfortunately, no fresh mint at the grocery store. SO figured out to get dried mint flakes, which he soaked in bourbon and then ran thru the coffeemaker. (Yes, he WAS a boyscout, why do you ask?)
So we got pleasantly schnockered. I was rooting for General Quarters (b/c the name made me think of the Ep of HIMYM where Ted and Robin always salute when someone uses a phrase like ‘general mayhem’ or ‘corporate punishment’ or ‘private practice’.) He was rooting of Pioneerof the Nile b/c his daughter is a horse person and he’s heard of the trainer.
We both loved the story of Mine that Bird and I love to bet on an underdog (so does he) but we didn’t.
Watching the race, we were all “Where the HELL did that horse come from?” Very neat to find out it was the longshot!
Kentucky Derby Day is always a sentimental day for me, and I almost always watch the Derby. One year we had moved in February – this was in Michigan, mind you – and we didn’t get a tv antenna up until the spring, so the first thing we could really watch on TV after that move was the Derby, as they had set it up the day before. Naturally this was waaaay back in the late 50s when you needed an antenna to get tv stations on your tv. LOL
What a great race! The jockey was a hoot, but what a great ride for both him and the horse, who seemed to come out of nowhere. I would have loved to have even a $2 bet on him. Good job. Give him some extra hay and an apple tonight for sure. LOL
Today was the rare case where an across-the-board bet on the entire field would have paid off. $6 each on 19 horses would have been $114; the Win and Place bets alone on the winning horse were over $150.