Everbody else’s morning line is at 20 or higher. I won’t be able to provide selections and commentary until I’ve seen past performances, which I should be able to get by Friday, but I thought that since we have a field and morning lines, I’d let our horse racing fans know that we have a field.
Okay, selections and commentary. Note that 4 Rodriguez and 10 Grande have been scratched, moving 21 Baeza into the field.
Informational purposes only, nothing else:
8 Journalism 17 Sandman 18 Sovrerignty
8 Journalism is clearly the best. First at last 4 outings, all route races. Should fit today, if can find an outside lane coming out of the far turn. 17 Sandman can close, as indicated in Arkansas Derby 29Mar25. With Ortiz up, definitely a contender. 18 Sovreignty, 3rd going away in the Florida Derby, but that was 1 1/8 miles, today is 1 1/4. Could do, and should be in there.
Others to consider:
21 Baeza performed nicely in SA Derby at 1 1/8 miles, losing by 3/4, but can do. Consider in exotics.
7 Luxor Cafe might surprise. Only raced in Japan, but always routes, and based on Timeforms, can definitely close. Another for exotics.
19 Chunk of Gold. Normally, I’d look at a 30-1 morning line horse as “what the hell is this?” but he’s racked up a number of 2nd places under Loveberry. All routes. Do not discount; consider in exotics.
Good luck with your selections and enjoy the Derby!
I know nothing about horse racing. Right now there’s ‘Race 3 - Allowance Race’. Is this a ‘heat’? Or are these horses racing for a consolation prize for not being in The Big Race? (Also, is The Big Race called ‘The Kentucky Derby’? Or are all of the races collectively called ‘The Kentucky Derby’?)
No. Like prizefighting, a day of racing has a main event and an undercard. Today, Churchill Downs is holding 14 races. Race 12 is the Kentucky Derby itself. Everything else is the undercard.
Race 3 is an Allowance Optional Claim, which is difficult to explain, but suffice it to say that it is just another race, the same as you might see on a typical day at the track. As I see from the Racing Form, it is for top-quality horses, but not necessarily Derby-quality. However, there are more important races on today’s card. For example, Race 5 is a Grade II stakes for $200K, Race 6 is a mile on the turf for $600K, Race 8 is 7 furlongs and is a a Grade I stakes for $1 million. But there are no heats for the Kentucky Derby; anything resembling a heat or a qualifier has been taking place since last November or December.
You can watch the Derby on TV—NBC usually carries it, with commentary; and usually also, the race prior (today, Race 11, a Grade I stakes, 1 1/8 miles on the turf for $1 million). But as I said, there is only one Derby (today, Race 12, 1 1/4 miles, for $5 million).
But really, I just wanted to have some money in the game. You’re probably right, it’ll probably be a favorite like Sandman… but where’s the fun in betting favorites?
The race is over and results are in. Top four, in order of finish:
18 Sovreignty 8 Journalism 21 Baeza 3 Final Gambit
Prices/payoffs are here:
I stuck by my original selections, in spite of the weather at CD. The track was sloppy, and as I saw in the Racing Form, very few had mud experience. Of those that did, nobody measured up to my selections, so I let the mud issue rest, and went with my original selections.
And I’m glad I did. I put 8, 17, and 18 in a box, and played the exactor. Because of the box, my 18 on top of 8 paid off: $48.30 on a $2 wager. So I’m up. Yay me!
I have never bet the Kentucky Derby before. But I’m a longtime newspaper guy who recently moved over to television news, so I simply couldn’t resist plunking down some money on Journalism. (In retrospect, an exacta with Publisher would have been thematically meaningful, but I hadn’t really read the list of horses that thoroughly, and didn’t realize he was even running.) Now, the pessimist in me simply couldn’t imagine Journalism actually pulling off the win. Shit always happens. So … $50 on Journalism to place, and I walk away with a nice little profit!
I just finished the entire NBC broadcast today (5 hours and it still ran long. Get it together, guys! ).
I will say this: Of all the annual events NBC runs, the Triple Crown is the one where the announce crew gets the least cracked up about a little rain. There were maybe two or three “can’t dampen our spirits” bits and something about a woman’s poncho being see-through or whatever, but that was it. I still remember the last Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade where they acted like they were hit by a goddam hurricane, and it was a relief to see them display a modicum of professionalism for a change. I think part of it was that there was just too much work to be done…places to visit, powerful figures to grill, betting lines to update, obligatory traditions like making the mint juleps and forcing a bunch of preschoolers to do a moronic skit…to waste any time yelling at the sky. (Also, the fact that racing has a specific term for a wet track, “sloppy”, would seem to indicate that everyone involved in horse racing understands that weather is just another factor and would really rather you not make a gigantic honking deal out of it.)
There were, as always, a number of preliminary races to cover, each with its own professional analysis, and at least two of which had fantastic finishes. There were also a couple of Acceptable Stories, but the sentiment seemed genuine and added a little humanity to the sport. Of course Bob Baffert’s return got the requisite amount of hype, but it wasn’t overdone and they did sound genuinely grateful to have him back. In all my years of watching the Kentucky Derby, I honestly can’t recall a single instance I was aggravated, offended, or bored out of my skull, and I’ll gladly make time for this every year.
One thing I sometimes like to do is go back and look over the celebrity predictions. I had the sneaky suspicion that they didn’t actually have a clue and just took a name that sounded good. (That almost none of them picked the 1st or 2nd favorite was something of a dead giveaway.) Hey, it’s cool, it was all in good fun. (It was all in good fun, right? )
I imagine that the NBC broadcast was five hours long because the racing day at Churchill Downs (CD) was five hours long. There were 14 races on the card, with 20 or so minutes between each race, except for the Derby, which was preceded by about 60 minutes of nothing. Plenty of time to analyze the Racing Form and make selections. And wager too; since a lot of people only wager on the Derby, and only once a year, they really don’t know how to call their bet to the teller, so the lines at the windows get long. They were certainly lined up 20 deep at my local track.
Note that there are actually two telecasts of the Derby: the NBC broadcast, which you saw; and the one that requires a subscription. The latter is carried on RTN:
I suppose that you can subscribe to RTN at home, but I watch it at the track, and that’s what showed us the Derby. Anyway, unlike NBC, RTN carries the CD-produced broadcast, which is much more informative to the horseplayer. Current odds, probable payoffs on exactas and doubles, handicapper selections, sometimes commentary from the handicappers, track conditions, Minutes-to-Post (MTP), the horses in the paddock and in the post parade; and after the race, replays, results, payoffs, and order of finish. Photo finishes if required by the judges; you get all of that. This is what a horseplayer needs in order to play; and sadly, it’s not what NBC provides.
You did make me smile with this:
Yes, those are fun, and as a horseplayer of at least four decades, I can tell that they are playing based on names they like, or lucky numbers, or what colours the jockey is wearing, or whatever. Definitely amusing, but not great sources of information.
If you can get hold of a real Racing Form, it should contain informed selections and commentary from the professional handicappers who know about the track, the horses, the trainers, and so on. Even lacking that, you’re not left hanging: at the end of the list of horses in the program, there will be “mutuel selections” or “mutuel ratings” or just plain “selections,” which are the top three or four morning line favourites. Those can really help a beginner. Heck, even some of us with a lot of experience take those into consideration; at least; as a starting point.
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