He is possibly the most hyped draft pick ever, but his agent is Scott Boras and he’s going to be asking for the world. Some reports are suggesting Boras will ask the Nationals for close to what he sought for Daisuke Matsuzaka, around $50M.
Matsuzaka had played for seven years in the Japanese pro ranks, leading the league in strikeouts four times, in wins three times, and in ERA twice. He was 26 years old.
Strasburg can throw 103 mph, and is often in the high upper 90’s in the late innings. On the other hand, he is 20, has never played higher than the Mountain West Conference, and young pitchers are always a crapshoot to be sucessful in the majors. Since 1965, 12 pitchers have been taken #1, and their combined record is 822-853. Guys like David Clyde, Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel, and Steve Dunning (who?) have turned out to be busts.
Would you take Strasburg and deal with Boras and the good risk that he will not be a great player or take an everyday player with less risk and lower signing demands?
Yes, I’d take him, but then, it isn’t really my money so it isn’t a hard decision. Once you’ve got him, you’ve got him, and terrible veteran pitchers get 20-30 million every year, so what the hell.
I read an article back in the late 80s/early 90s that claimed position players are something like seven times more likely to make it to the Majors than pitchers, making a compelling argument against ever drafting pitchers, but letting some other dope burn up precious draft picks and their minor league system with pitchers who won’t pan out. Meanwhile, even if you’re making 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals all the time for top AAA position players to get yourself some pitchers who can do the job in The Show, you still come out way ahead. By that logic, there’s no way I’d burn a pick on Strasburg, no matter how good he appears to be.
Is trading down an option in the MLB draft? If I was the Nationals, I think I’d rather do that. Let somebody else roll the dice for the big money flamethrower, see if maybe I could get more value for less money lower in the draft.
Those numbers are going to be very skewed by the later round fliers teams take on high school arms based solely on velocity. Plus, scouting has changed quite a bit in the last 20 years.
I’m not an expert when it comes to baseball prospects but $50 million is a LOT of money to eat when you consider their payroll is $60 million. For this type of money, Washington has to be dead certain he’s legit. You don’t want to turn a potential cy young award winner just because of a few bucks though either. It’s a tough decision.
Ouch. Tough call. You definitely don’t want to be the team that passed on a future Hall of Famer, but you don’t want a $50 million bust, either. I guess I’d pull the trigger and take the kid, hope it works out.
Todd Van Poppel was going to be the #1 pick overall in 1990, but told Atlanta that he wouldn’t sign with them. The Braves then took Chipper Jones, who went on to a borderline HOF career, and the Braves won almost everything for the next 15 years. Van Poppel went 40-52 over 13 MLB seasons.
If you look at the history of #1 picks, only three pitchers (of 14 overall) have ever even made an All-Star team, and one never made the big leagues at all. Andy Benes is probably the best #1 pitcher.
I’m just playing Devil’s advocate, I would have a hard time passing on Strasburg, but pitchers are a crapshoot.
There’s a story about how the lead scout for the Mariners fudged a few numbers to make ARod come out ahead of (I think) Roger Salkeld on the team’s numerical scouting system at the time, to make sure he was taken #1.
Bear in mind that most of the pitching busts mentioned so far were high school players. Strasburg is a college pitcher, 20 years old. Two years makes a really, really big difference in terms of a pitcher’s future prospects; it’s two more years of proof his arm will hold up, two years of play against hitters who can crush a bad curveball. He is a legitimately A++ prospect, very comparable to Roger Clemens.
If I could afford him I’d pick him #1, absolutely. All prospects are risks, but Strasburg is as good a prospect as you will ever see. The only issue is whether you can afford him. I don’t think he’ll actually hold out for $50 million.
Actually, Todd van Poppel was not the #1 pick the year he was drafted. The Atlanta Braves took a young third baseman #1 that year by the name of Chipper Jones. The wanted to take van Poppel, but his agent made it clear he would not sign with Atlanta, as they had sucked terribly from 1986-90. Of course, starting in 1991 the Braves would win the 1st of 14 straight divisional crowns and TvP?? Ehhh not so much.
Anderson was picked because he was willing to sign for less money than, I think it was Rick Ankiel. McDonald was the last guy I remember being really really hyped out of college.
Restricting your view to solely #1 picks is just too small a data sample. Because of differing opinions, team needs and signability issues, it’s not really representative of the group of top college picks. I mean, you wouldn’t say Strasburg’s chances would be better if he was passed on by the Natinals and went #2.
First-round college pitchers have a significantly better record than first-round high school pitchers. In terms of assessing Strasburg, that’s a big deal in comparing him to busts like van Poppel or David Clyde.
Nothing is guaranteed, of course. Roy Halladay was drafted out of high school and is a pitching master; picked well ahead of him in that first round was the immortal Mike Drumright, who never threw a pitch in the majors, out of college.
If Dustin Ackley, who’s projected to go #2, wasn’t also a Scott Boras client, I’d consider taking him if I was the Nationals. I think he’s a real good prospect.
But since he’s also a Boras client, there’s not much of a choice. While Ackley might be the next John Olerud, Strasburg could be… well, anything. The next Clemens, the next Seaver, the next Walter Johnson. Or, of course, the next Ben McDonald.