I am not deluded by our high scoring games and Spain’s harder looking victories; everyone at the Cup considers Spain as the team to beat and everyone knows how Spain is going to play and what’s the best approach to beat their style: they have to deal with opponents who line up two lines of 4 + 2 who press higher or a 1/2 or 3/4 field swarming high pressing defence that runs for its life.
Even the almost perfect Spanish passing system can’t break down such defences easily as long as they don’t score an early goal. Otoh, the opposing teams rely mostly on counterattacks, no one has yet dared to try to impose his game on Spain. This tactic can work pretty well if Spain loses its order temporarily and luck helps the opponent to score on one of their few strikes that will get through (Switzerland). But the high percentage of quality chances created by the Spanish system will usually translate into a goal sooner or later and the opposing team, trapped in its defensive shell, will find it hard to switch to a more challenging and creative play.
Some might think Spain’s play is boring but I am mightily impressed how disciplined and patiently they create their chances and wait for the opening to break through.
In contrast, our last two opponents didn’t consider it necessary to adapt their strategy to deal with us – whereas Serbia and Ghana were more careful. And both made it hard for us. Sure, we still looked good against Serbia despite the red card and Ghana lost – but our system showed some troubling deficits (for different reasons in both matches) and Löw proved to be inept as an improviser.
And neither the match against England nor the one against Argentina were perfect: twice we gave away control of the field and allowed an already staggering opponent back into the game. That Argentina couldn’t capitalize on our withdrawal had a lot to do with our exceptional defence rotation but one Lampard-like shot from afar into the net could have made things very difficult indeed.
Also, our passing was atrocious for a while after the half time break (I still don’t know why) and added another indicator that we are not yet stable enough to play to our full potential for 90 minutes or more.
Germany is still a work in progress, while Spain has already found its way.
And yet, I think not “a prayer” is a bit harsh; but from all the teams we could have met, this is the one I fear the most and with good reason.
Btw, anyone who is interested in the reasons for the changes in Germany’s football during the last years could be interested in Raphael Honigstein’s article: How Germany reinvented itself.
Even if we don’t make it against Spain, I am proud of the team and glad that we have gone back to a style that Germany played before it relied too much on athleticism, discipline and resilience. You need all of these characteristics to be a contender, but it’s not enough to win it all.
