Absolutely. It’s not because of luck that Spain has to concede a goal so rarely; when they get more than one, it’s usually helped by a wrong decision in formation. IIRC, they lost against the USA with 2-0 in the Confed Cup with Alonso as their DM; he proved then that he lacks Senna’s abilities to fill this role alone, which is one of the reasons why del Bosque has switched to two defensive midfielders since then*.
I think Busquets has the quality to replicate Senna’s role but this would lead to more changes in the team and the result would be, imo, worse for Germany because del Bosque could then easily add Pedro to the mix which would give Spain the width they now lack so often.
I don’t want a wider Spain because their wings are one of their few relatively weak points and since ours are strong, they are the natural lane of attack. We also have a forward who is strong in the air and therefore an interesting option for a cross into the box.
The Spanish team is well aware of the fact and will shadow Klose closely (ha) whenever he enters their box but if they double him, it will leave space for a penetration move by [del]Müller[/del], sigh, no, by his substitute or Schweinsteiger or Khedira or a shot from somewhere near the box by Podolski, Özil, Schweinsteiger or the not yet known substitution on the right.
More than any other team, the Spanish one lives by the motto: the best defence is offence; and they are perfectly right to do so because every team that opts for a formation and tactic to overpower the Spanish defence will most likely fall prey to their ability to switch from defence to offence in the blink of an eye.
Spain is as good in counter-attacks as Germany, they just had no opportunity to show it yet. I hope, it stays this way.
So, Germany has to solve a conflict of goals and the correct balance is hard to achieve. I’d be favourable to press the back four and the holding midfielders who don’t always act wisely when they don’t get the time to survey the field. But the spaces inbetween our shape would then allow Spain to cut through with their perfect passing. We can’t choose a high defence line to close the gaps because our centre-backs are not fast enough to keep pace with the explosive Spanish offence. The defence teamwork we showed against Argentina is a better option but it will be harder to overrun Spain (but not impossible).
I think our best bet is to rely on our greatest strenght, just like Spain does: they will try to cut us open with their patient passing, we have to use our meshed awareness of space to force them into less than perfect positions.
The choice of Müller’s substitution will tell us a lot how Löw wants to tackle the European champion.
Trochowski has been his substitute before; he is a very good shooter, technically better than Müller and quite fast. But he doesn’t have Müller’s eye for the moment and he tends to keep the ball for too long and rather shoots than passes. In effect: he has a tendency to slow down the game, a counter-attacker he ain’t. Cacau could fill the role too, although he is used to a more central role and will drift in this direction (thereby narrowing our shape in a most unfortunate way). He likes to speed up the game and is very team oriented but due to injuries, he hasn’t trained now for more than a week and his passing and crosses aren’t top-notch.
Toni Kroos is so versatile that he could also play on the right wing although he is used to play either on the left or in an offensive central position in the midfield. He is as aware of developing opportunities as Müller is and his shot and passing are one of the reasons why Bayer Leverkusen was a contender for the title in the Bundesliga for so long.
But a) it’s not really his position, so his deployment would be an experiment – and this isn’t exactly the situation for such a move; b) he is the only player left to substitute Özil, Khedira or Schweinsteiger if something happens to them in the match. You could say that our problems with injuries prior to the Cup and his versatility are the main reasons why he hasn’t played more.
To summarize: Trochowski is a solid choice, he can do the job but if he doesn’t have an exceptional day of miracles and wonders, you won’t see anything exciting done by him. Cacau is the option if Löw wants to add more force to our offence, while Kroos is the answer to improve our chances to outthink the Spanish team.
This is a clash of two great teams and a lot will depend on the form on the day. Spain has an advantage: they play brilliant football on a stable level, pretty much all of their best players are on board, they have gained a kind of confidence in the past three years that maybe no Spanish team had for decades and they know what to do to become champions. They are the favourites. But I doubt that they can afford a mediocre performance, we certainly can’t.
In any event, both teams are worthy finalists; and the winner will be in a precarious situation because they might start to think that they have already won the Cup.
They wouldn’t be the first to fall on their faces because of pride. Uruguay has proven to be incredibly resilient and lucky. And Holland is severly underestimated, imo.
Aside:
There is one Dutch who is apparently bitterly unhappy with the turn of events at the World Cup: Louis van Gaal, the coach of the German club Bayern München. That 11 of his players are still in South Africa for the semi finals instead of enjoying a break is worse than inconvenient, iho. They won’t have enough time to regenerate for the next season and will miss most of the summer training which might lead to another spluttering start and more than one burn out later. I fear he might be right, but, Louis, it’s the World Cup! It’s about the first star for your Dutch players and the fourth for us, not even a triumph in the Champions League is that important.
- I don’t mean to belittle the performance of the US team in any way; they played fantastic and deserved to win.
On that note, if you feel that you have an addictive nature, gambling is not for you. Sports gambling will chew you up and spit you out. I have friends that have been so damaged by gambling that they can no longer watch a sporting event. Luckily, I bet infrequently and enjoy sports without gambling. I only bet on major events, and only if I truly think I have a winner. I don’t always win, but seem to makeout pretty well. Many people bet simply to have “action” on the game. Not good.
