Thoughts?
Novak Djokovic is completely undefeated going into the tournament. Then there’s that guy that’s kinda good on clay, what’s his name again? He only has one loss in the year, if I am not mistaken.
There are some big first round matches on the men’s side:
Del Potro v. Karlovic
Djokovic v. de Bakker
Federer v. Lopez
Nadal v. Isner
Full Opening Round Bracket
Thanks for the links. I only pay attention to tennis at the Grand Slams. Yep a fair weather fan.
womens tennis>
I heard that both Williams sisters are not playing. Looking at the rankings I see that Serena is 17th and Venus is 29th. Next American is Bethanie Mattek-Sands at #36. Who? and then Christina McHale at 81 (double Who?) No Americans Seeded in the draw.
I have heard of Melanie Oudin and she is 89th. she made a good run at the 2099 US Open (quarterfinalist). I guess she never really validated that tournament.
On the mens side, I have heard of the 4 highest US Players, (Fish, Roddick (not playing), Querrey, Isner) but none of the other Yanks ranked in the top 100.
Isner gets Nadal in the first round? Yikes, tough draw for a player who just missed being seeded (by 4 players). Fish and Querrey are also in Nadal’s Quarter of the bracket.
In the rankings Nadal has a slim lead on Novak. and Novak has a big lead on #3 Federer.
If I understand Tennis Rankings correctly, Novak can become the top ranked player if he loses in the finals, even if Nadal wins.
I’m confused - I don’t really follow tennis at all, but the Canadian media has been going crazy over Milos Raonic this year (sounds like he is rather impressive, climbing the rankings). I heard he was playing and seeded (I don’t really know what that implies) in the French Open, but I’m not seeing him on that list for the first round bracket. Is he one of the qualifiers?
Ranked 28th
Seeded #26
He is in Andy Murray’s Quarter part of the bracket (2nd one of four). and seeded to play Murray in the 3rd round.
Plays 96th rank Michael Berrer (Germany) in the first round.
I think Djokovic beat Nadal twice recently.
Nadal is 36-6 this year. He’s won two titles, lost to Djokovic four times, and lost to Ferrer (in Australia) and Davydenko early in the season. Losses to Djokovic practically don’t count this year. 
It’s an interesting quandary because Djokovic has to lose at some point, but when do you pick against him? He hasn’t beaten Nadal in a best-of-five this year, but four wins in a row has to count for something. He’s playing absolutely out of his mind and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. I don’t think de Bakker is about to challenge him. He has game, but he’s not that strong psychologically.
Nadal vs. Isner is an interesting matchup (and so is del Potro-Karlovic for the same reasons), and if this were Wimbledon, you’d say it’s a terrible first round draw for Nadal. But it’s the French. The surface will slow down Isner’s serve somewhat, and Nadal has big advantages in fitness, comfort on the surface, and shotmaking. I don’t think Isner poses a big challenge here. Del Potro is more of a baseliner, but still, I think he’s far enough along on his comeback that he can take Karlovic. If del Potro catches fire he could challenge Djokovic in round four.
Lopez could be a tough start for Federer. Federer has mostly played well this year. He lost to Gasquet recently, but other than that, he’s mostly run into Djokovic and Nadal. I’d like to see him do well here.
Raonic has been amazing, although I’m not sure how he will handle clay. He’s got a huge serve, a strong game, and surprising maturity. He had a good run in Australia and has beaten some top players this year. I’d like to see some of the other guys (like Dmitrov) have a good showing this tournament.
On the women’s side… wow, is it wide open. The Williamses are out, Clijsters is barely back from an injury- can Wozniacki finally take one? A lot of the players who can beat her with offense are out. But of all people, Sharapova is playing really well. She used to be weak on clay. Could she pull this off?
Marley, I know you follow tennis and the rankings closely. Is my hypothetical regarding Nadal and Novak correct?
That if Novak loses to Nadal in the finals, Novak passes Nadal in the ATP rankings?
Kind of weird scenario, if true.
I don’t follow the points that closely, but it looks like you’re right. Djokovic is very close behind Nadal and he can definitely pass him at the French without winning. In fact Djokovic could have taken the top ranking a week or two ago if Nadal had not reached the finals of the Madrid tournament.
Right now Nadal has 12,070 points and Djokovic has 11,665. You can make up a lot of points in a hurry if you never lose. I hate the ‘defending points’ explanation because it’s kind of misleading, but yes, Nadal got 2,000 points at the French last year and Djokovic had 360. So Nadal can only equal the points that are coming off the board, meaning at best, he will stay at 12,070. Djokovic could add as much as 1,640 (if he wins the whole thing). If he loses in the finals, he’d get 1,200 points (minus 360) for a net gain of 840, and yes, that would be enough to put him ahead of Nadal.
Thanks Marley, that confirms what i suspected. I don’t like the “defense” of points either.
I have been debating (on another board) about golf’s rankings. The OWGR (official world golf rankings) are over a 2 year period, and points “depreciate” after three months.
I hate the two year system (results from 18 months ago should be worthless) but I like the depreciation aspect of the rankings. Results from 2009 are still keeping Tiger in the top 10 of golf rankings even though he has not had a result better than T4 in any official tournament since hitting a fire hydrant.
FWIW, Tiger’s indifferent results will finally knock him out of the top 10 next week as he is guaranteed to fall to at least 11th (possibly 12th, or 13th depending on results this weekend) He could be down to 20th by the time the US Open happens in a month.
I mean I don’t like it as an explanation. I’ve said this in other threads, but you don’t defend points - they’re going to go away regardless of what you do. It’s really about how much you can (or can’t) improve on your performance from a year ago at any given point on the schedule. I don’t really have a problem with the rankings. I think they do reflect who the best players are, and the ATP does have it’s calendar year champions race to go along with the regular rankings.
I hope Novak takes #1. If not because of this tournament, then sometime soon. He’s been behind Federer and Nadal for a long time and a lot of people counted him out to be a one-hit wonder and he’s proven otherwise and that his mental stability in the game is obviously rising very quickly.
It’s hard to imagine Djokovic won’t beat his results from the 2010 French Open, which would get him very close to #1 even if he doesn’t get there right away. He’s certainly been the best this year and he’s made big strides with his strategy and his mental approach.
I can’t wait for my tennis fix!
I’m going to be loyal & pick Nadal for the men’s. & I’m going to say Na Li for the women’s.
& just have to say its good to see Erakovic back in form & uninjured. She should win her first round match, but is likely to face Kim in the second. :eek:
I’ll make my doubles predictions later.
Live delay on ESPN2 because of some sport called “football”, but they aren’t tossing the ball or tackling properly. Never heard of it.
when did the French Open add a 15th day to their tournament? are they the only Grand slam tournament to do that?
& Pennetta.
I saw as much as I could stand of the Stosur game - very dull.
I fell asleep but woke up in time to see part of Ferrer’s game against Niemenen. He was wiping the court with him.
We get the Aussie broadcasters - its great to have Fred Stolle doing the commentaries. I just hope we aren’t going to have to see too many Aussie no hopers.
OK, I’ll take Kirilenko/Azarenka for the women’s doubles & Tecau/Lindstadt for the men.
Schiavone looking dominant against Oudin
Will Djoko go all the way with a win? Will Rafa? Predictions discussions etc.
Acc to Johnny Mac, if Djokovic makes it to the finals of the French Open, he will be #1 for the rest of the year. He noted the oddness of this because the #1 ranking would be set in stone before 2 of the 4 majors had been played.
I love Djokovic’s new found determination and spunk, especially after last year’s disappointing year. I know some people think that he is a brat, but I never saw that. I just saw a kid who had a lot of personality, but it was never offensive to me. IMO, he has more “game” than Nadal in that he can drop shot on a dime, or slice and dice, or power the ball…but most importantly, he COMES IN when he’s got his opponent unbalanced. Until Nadal learns to take advantage of his ability to move the players back and forth by moving in and taking control of the point, he’s going to have trouble with Djokovic. He’s a brilliant defensive player, but so is Djokovic. And having the gumption to take risks is what is setting Djokovic apart right now.
I never thought in a million years that after Djokovic’s win over Murray in Rome, that he’d go on to beat Nadal. And handily. But he did. In the same way that Nadal made Federer look befuddled, Djokovic is making Nadal look befuddled.
And it’s about time that the men’s game opened up a little bit.
I think that Djokovic and Murray both have the game to upset Nadal. Murray currently lacks the resolve to close a tough match, but I’m not counting him out yet. I love to watch him play. The match between Djokovic and Murray was as entertaining as tennis gets, IMO. And who knows if/when Federer will start to get his confidence back. He obviously has all the tricks, too, but absent that steely confidence that made him virtually untouchable for years, he’s faded. I’d love to see him set in his heels and become a real contender again.