As a purely mathematical exercise, our trial ballot above is indicative of just how overloaded (as in FUBARed) the ballot is now. I’d expect similar results from the real thing, with only Maddux going in and several guys in the 65-75% range, esp. once the steroid factor is figured in.
If that is indeed the outcome, expect a liberalization of the ballot rules etc., with 5-6 guys going in on the (following) 2015 ballot.
John T:
I remember the Andro flap, but Andro was legal and over-the-counter and scientifically is not an anabolic steroid. Whether or not Mark McGwire was to be condemned for using them was an open question even then. The stuff at the center of the real scandal, the “cream” and the “clear” wasn’t known to be in wide usage at the time.
I am confused. If the wiki is right, androstenedioneis a direct precursor to testosterone. As in, one enzyme converts andro directly to testosterone. Accordingly the IOC classes it within androgenic-anabolic substances, and has banned it in competition since 1997.
From what I dimly remember of news accounts at the time, the andro bottle spotted in McGwire’s locker was treated with seemingly intentional indifference. Controversial, but treated as just another dietary supplement, and a lot different than if he’d been caught with, say, a vial of Dianabol in his locker. Part of it were attitudes that steroids weren’t going to be helpful for MLB players, that it would leave them ‘muscle-bound’ and slow. And part of it, IMHO, was people just didn’t want to think about it. This article from ESPN in 2002 goes into a bit more detail about the attitudes around the andro discovery and the consequences.
Anecdotally, we went through a similar bout of denial here in Houston when Roger Clemens was re-writing the record books for 42 year olds. He can’t possibly be on the juice, where’s the positive test, how would juicing help a pitcher, etc… Despite being the poster child for HGH efficacy. Much the same stuff you heard when you questioned Lance Armstrong’s achievements, albeit Clemens wasn’t tested even an infinitesimal fraction of what Armstrong went through.
Jeez, remember the howls of indignation when Canseco wrote Juiced? I wonder how much of it was due to the people covering baseball being scared they’d lose their access to the sport if they dared ask those questions?
I don’t think it will be very easy at all. His first ballot was last year, and he didn’t make it.
Speak for yourself, thanks. MLB and the press corps is full of hypocrites and dupes on the issue, sure, and the entire thing is coated with a thick layer of sanctimony. But holding fans to the same standard is absurd, and so is addressing fans as if they were the ones doing the drugs.
Really? (Goes back to the BB Reference I linked to earlier.) Well shit, you’re right. No idea why I thought this was his first year of eligibility. Good thing I don’t get a ballot.
It’s funny, if you go to that table, and sort by WAR, JAWS, etc… Biggio isn’t a gigantic standout in that company. 64.9 WAR is great, but only gets him to 14th on that list. I think he should get in, but it’s not the OMG! Sound the Celestial Choir! that Maddux’s candidacy should generate. Interesting question: does Biggio get in if he hung 'em up at the end of 2005, when he had a hair less than 2800 hits?
Greay Ghost:
Yes, but “precusor to testosterone” is not what “anabolic” means. It means that it promotes muscle growth, which andro has not (yet) been proven to directly do. The fact that the IOC included it in the same banning category as anabolic steroids does not mean it IS an anabolic steroid, scientifically.
Remember the chants of “Steroids, steroids” Canseco so often got? And how he’s just flex his bicep in response? Yes, we all - oh, all right, mostly - knew, or at the very least suspected it pretty strongly and accepted it.
That isn’t it. The hypocrisy charge for fans applies to those who accepted the situation (which was most of us) and liked the resulting game (which was still a lot of us) then, but decry it now. For instance, anyone who cheered on the McGwire-Sosa race could fucking well *see *it, and now needs to drop the sermons and shut the fuck up.
A secondary basis for a fan-hypocrisy charge is based on the knowledge that amphetamines were just as prevalent, if not more so, in their heyday than steroids were. A lot of greenie users are in the Hall. If you’re going to preach about never letting steroid and HGH users in, why would you stop at that?
How do you grow your skull at that age? Not through hard work and clean living.
So then why McGwire over Palmeiro? Palmeiro was a much better player. And what about Raines?
McGwire was more important than Palmeiro. I’m one of those people who doesn’t solely use stats to declare a HOF player and I think McGwire’s mystique counts for something.
As for Raines, to me, he’s a Hall of Very Good player because he was forever second-best in almost everything he did to Rickey Henderson.
I’ll ask again: Who was ‘clean’, and how do you know?
Remember that Mitchell’s investigation found prevalent use everywhere he was able to look, even though that was pretty much just NY, Chi, and SF/Oak. Only a few names were leaked from the sampling testing the union did that one time, but there were multiple names there too. Don’t you have to conclude that PED use was prevalent, and we only know a small fraction of the names of the users?
Why? In this case, having your name out there as a user is simply a matter of luck - somebody leaked it, or somebody who was forced into complying with Mitchell happened to work in that clubhouse. Choosing to believe in the innocence of those who, only by chance, don’t have their names out there is merely pretending not to see what one doesn’t want to see.
Does Piazza belong? He added a lot of muscle at a late age, didn’t he? Is he innocent, or just lucky? Or do we need to decide not to care?
I don’t. I think you’re assuming people paid way more attention to the ins and outs of this stuff than they probably did.
Two things I remember about the 1998 baseball season:
Just like I believe, with no proof, that MJ was kicked out of the NBA for gambling on the Bulls, I also think that MLB knew that there was a problem, but the excitement of the upcoming HR race (in contrast with the bad feelings left over from the 1994 strike), lead them to decide “we’ll deal with it later.” It was just more profitable that way.
He did not add a lot of muscle. Piazza deteriorated at about the rate you’d expect an older catcher. He, along with Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell, are about the cleanest sluggers in the steroid era. Few think they used and those that do don’t have any proof beyond screaming, “Everybody used!”
Morris is HoF worthy in my book. Pitched 18 years, 5 all-star games, top-five in Cy Young voting 5 times, won almost 60% of his games, many of them on mediocre Tigers teams, bonus points for the one of the most bodacious World Series pitching performances in history in 1991…Baseball Reference sort of agrees with me, giving him clear HoF cred in Gray Ink (top-10 league finishes in various categories) and Hall of Fame Monitor stats, but slightly below standard for Black Ink and Hall of Fame Standards.
If Morris doesn’t make it in, neither does Andy Pettitte (who’s success is almost purely driven by win totals thanks to pitching for the most successful baseball franchise of our generation).
Anyone not voting for Greg Maddux for the Hall of Fame can not only be comfortably ignored (if not outright laughed at), they should never be allowed to vote again - in fact, they probably shouldn’t be allowed out in open public, it’s clear they’re suffering from a dangerous mental illness.
There are not many cut ‘n’ dry arguments in any sport, but ‘Greg Maddux is one of the 10 players on that ballot worthy of a HoF vote’ is one of them. Anyone saying otherwise is an idiot of the highest order.
Also, everyone knew about steriods in the late 90’s. I mean, everyone with half a brain and open ears paying attention to things. It was an open secret. McGwire’s androstenedione story caused waves not because it was completely unheard of, but because it was the first visible glimpse everyone got of the *technically *legal side of the steroids issue that everyone had already long known existed underneath everything.
I think that’s a fair reason to vote someone ahead of someone, but how was McGwire “important”? He and Sosa didn’t “save” baseball, despite the typical meme.
“Almost as good as Rickey” is pretty high praise. Henderson is inner circle Hall of Fame good.
Are you comfortable with disqualifying guys based on rumors about rumors?
Nobody is screaming “Everybody used!”, btw. Some of us are *observing *that it was pretty damn common, even generally accepted as part of the game at the time, but it certainly wasn’t universal.
Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Piazza, Clemens and Bonds are hall of famers. Tim Raines too, IMHO. The rest are debatable.
I’ve never understood the case for Jack Morris. If he gets in, there is no denying guys like Jim Kaat, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling and even Kevin Brown. Morris just wasn’t all that great, even though he was in that particular World Series.
ElvisL1ves:
You can conclude whatever you want about players as a class, but not about any given individual. Unless there’s some reasonable evidence of an individual’s guilt, why believe that that individual is guilty? But if there is reasonable evidence of an individual’s guilt, why ignore it just because there are people who have been smart enough to not get caught?
Only with real evidence, e.g., failed test, paper trail from BALCO, testimony from people whose credibility has been proven in other cases. If rumors and WAGs is all anyone has, that’s innocent in my book.