That doesn’t get you a majority in a state that went for Obama twice though.
Given that Gillespie is basically the GOP version of McCauliffe, after the fact it will be easy to just blame the establishment. His Trumpism is not sincere, it’s just politics from a very seasoned political operative.
Given Virginia’s track record of late, a loss for the Republicans here would not be as bad a loss for the Democrats. Well, let me clarify that: It won’t be as bad for the Republicans in terms of their chances to win in other races, but it would be bad in the sense that it tells other members of the party: Run a Trumpian campaign, and you’ve got a good shot of winning. Even if they’re just “faking it”, one runs the risk of becoming the actual thing you think you’re only “faking”.
Given the Dem’s failure to prevail in any of the recent post-Trump contested special elections, I would view this as a significant loss. My liberal friends keep talking about this increasing wave of interest/energy, and are happy to march while wearing silly hats, whereas I keep wondering when that energy is going to be reflected where it matters - in the voting booth. If Dems in VA aren’t able to mobilize enough to win this one, why should we expect things to be any different in future state/local elections, not to mention the midterms?
It’s not just the governors’ race that matters here either. There are three statewide races, Governor, LT. Governor, and AG, all of which are close. While governor is the most important, I’d say whichever party wins 2 of 3 is the winner here. If Gillespie pulls it out but Democrats win the other two, I’d just spin that as “Gillespie is an unusually talented politician”. After all, he came within a hair’s breadth of beating the very popular Mark Warner.
The recent post-Trump special elections were in districts that heavily favored Republicans. This is a state-wide race in a state that is moderately in the Democratic camp. This will be bad if the Dems lose, but I don’t see it as “the next domino to fall” type thing. It will be the first real domino.
If you’re going to be this absurdly uncharitable, at least bring evidence that it is the case. As adaher points out, there’s actually good evidence implying that no, it’s not about racism.
He didn’t start moving up in the polls until he went full racist.
If you’re following the election returns tonight, probably the best way to get a handle on who’s really winning is to see how things are shaping up at the county level. Different counties report results at different times in the evening, so the statewide running totals won’t really be that indicative.
But to do that, you’re going to need something to compare it with. Politico has the county-level results from 2014, when Warner beat Gillespie by 0.8% in that year’s Senate race. So if Northam does as well as Warner did, he’ll win. But if Gillespie improves by even a little bit, he’s in.
I’m rather nervous about tonight. I think it could go one of two ways: either it’ll be a squeaker that won’t have a clear winner until late, or Dem turnout will disappoint and Gillespie’s supporters will party early.
Donald Trump, Jr. tweeted about two hours ago:
Follow Junior’s advice, Virginia Republicans - don’t forget to vote tomorrow!! 
Aye. Here’s what the racist who lost the primary to Mr. Gillespie had to say:
That’s Corey Stewart, not Martha, btw. Also, even Steven Bannon admits it’s because of the racism:
Agreed. Most conservatives (at least in NoVA) won’t fall for the “teach history, don’t erase it” dog whistle. But they do care about keeping property taxes low and values high, etc… And will vote for Gillespie accordingly. And frankly, NoVA has been hit particularly badly with gang-violence, or perceived violence. So Gillespie’s “tough on crime” BS will sell.
Cuccinelli lost, as will Jill Vogel, I believe, for their ridiculous trans-vaginal ultrasound abortion horse shit of a few years ago. NoVA is chock-a-block full of educated, fiscally conservative women, who have no absolutely no tolerance for that kind of shenanigans… and will vote against it every time.
It could also go the other way if the turnout is as good for the Dems as it was during the special elections.
Also, I went to the wrong polling station and heard a woman talking about being number 638. When I got to mine, I was number 545. This was 10am this morning. I would not be surprised if voter turnout is higher than normal on an off-year election.
From this election the Democrats need evidence to support a shift left in future candidates.
I can’t see another way forward; the left needs to rise, the Dems either support that or they fail again with centre-right HRC-type bullshit.
What time do the polls close in Virginia?
7 pm.
In case anyone’s planning on watching the election results tonight, here are some helpful links:
Recommend this link (liveblog) as well:
According to them, early signs point to a Northam win of about 5 points. If so, YAAAAAAY!!!
Thanks for the link, but this is a live blog, and I’m not seeing that this is what they are saying now:
This is about that point in the night when people probably read too much into thin reeds of data. With that said, the data tells a fairly consistent story, with pre-election polls, the exit poll and the results so far (adjusted for the precincts where they’re coming from) all indicating a narrow Northam advantage. [Nate Sliver; 7:28 PM EST]
But maybe I missed that. Would he call 5 points a “narrow win”?