The 5 points came from a post about exit polls earlier.
Looks like VA might also elect its first openly trans state legislator. Props.
NYTimes is, at the moment of this post, predicting a 6.5% win for Northam (not set in stone, but as a best guess).
That’s a solid Northam win, if it holds up at 5-6 points. Not huge, but comfortable and not a squeaker. Not enough that I’ll say with strong confidence that we’re headed for a Democratic wave election in '18, but enough to say that it’s still very possible, and that Republicans in Congress are likely to be very nervous. Especially since Northam may have been a kinda crappy candidate who ran a kinda crappy campaign.
The Dems have a lot more to lose than the GOP in this race, so a narrow win by Notham would be good, but not that good. A 6.5% win would be fantastic!!
Cool link! Now it’s up to Northam by over 7.
If Northam wins by over 7, then I think that’s a sign that in the present environment, campaigns in statewide races (and maybe many others) don’t matter much – it’s really all about Trump… and right now voters are not liking Trump. By which I mean that it doesn’t really matter how good a candidate is, or how good their campaigns are – voters are energized for or against Trump, and they’ll come out and vote that way (mostly) no matter what the candidates do.
Might Dems take the House in Virginia?? Wow.
If Northam wins decisively in VA, that puts other GOP candidates between a rock and a hard place. Do they assume that campaigning like Trump = lose? Or do they worry that distancing themselves from Trump just alienates the base. Do they Campaign like Trump in the primary, but pivot to not-like-Trump in the general? Who knew politicking was so complicated!?
538 just referred to “the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races” in Virginia.
Since the first special election this year, I and a bunch of people have been saying that Republican wins don’t mean that much, since the special elections were mostly for solid Republican districts (from which Trump was recruiting cabinet nominees). We said that the margin should be looked at, and that the relative strength of Democrats, even in races they lost, was a sign for hope.
We were mocked and ridiculed for that claim.
Curious about the mockers tonight.
Edit: Heh–I promise I submitted this post before Harry Enten, again at 538, wrote:
They just called it for Northam. Tears of joy in my eyes!
WOOOOOO!!!
God what a relief. I was nervous as hell. I thought Northam would win, but I was only about 51% confident. A big win will be ENORMOUS for Democratic morale.
edit: realized I could edit my post above instead of making a new one.
Being nicer works! Nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead! Minnesota will probably be willing to provide “nice” counselors to Dems in other states. Most will need to be treated for stress when they return, but hey!
NYT estimates a Northam win by 8.5 points.
Very, very happy to be wrong! 
Looking at the NY Times site, I counted 14 GOP incumbents trailing, some by a lot.
I’ve been saying that too and have wondered about the critical thinking skills of those who expressed “concern” that the democratic party couldn’t pull off almost any wins in the special elections. They had such a huge swing in the special elections versus the 2016 November elections that it was definitely not something to crow about on the GOP side, and it appears that, for now at least, that momentum has been holding.
Well, looks like the first major verdict on Don the Con has been rendered. Bigly. Sad!
Fairfax is leading Vogel 50.98 to 48.95 for Lt. Gov. Herring is leading Adams 51.62 to 48.31 for AG.
And Northam is NYT projected to win by 8.7.