Who knows? I think the fact that he isn’t out there being obvious about it, while still challenging Trump from the earliest days in his administration, is a positive. Staying under the radar, but come on, he’s got to be at least thinking a little about it. I mean, if ever there was a time for someone like him to step up and give a presidential run a shot, it’s now.
But set aside 20 minutes of your life and watch this commencement speech and tell me you wouldn’t want to see this guy run against Trump. He would indeed make Trump look like a pussy.
Good post.
I think who ends up getting the nomination will be greatly influenced by the situation in 2019, which could be quite different from the one we’re in now. I think the Democrats need to find a way to fuse the two ends of the party together. The Bernie wing can’t win by itself, but I’d be worried that someone like Joe Biden wouldn’t have the energy to achieve the intensity that voters will most likely want and demand in a progressive. I’m not much of a political strategist but my own sense is that the party probably needs a labor democrat with some charisma or charm. Maybe someone like Obama but with a little sharper edge. I think the right kind of female candidate - not a glittery star but just a tough-minded straight shooter - would be welcome as well. If the public has gotten fed up enough with the current GOP, I think 2020 could be the year of the woman, with the reasoning being that anti-incumbent voters tend to vote against what they perceive as the most distasteful attributes of the incumbent. In this case, Trump’s toxic masculinity would create market for a strong, competent female politician. A Hillary Clinton but without the baggage and with more social awareness.
True, governors are the best choices. Democrats have very few governors though.
Biden does have unique advantages for a Senator though. First, he was a VP in a very popular(with Democrats) administration. He won’t be as burdened as HHH or Mondale were by association with an administration even Democrats didn’t like too much.
Biden also has a reputation for honesty. Not just a reputation for honesty, but a reputation for not using politics to get rich. Biden’s been in politics for 40 years and has pretty much nothing to show for it. He was the easiest VP to vet in history and we know there won’t be any financial skeletons in his closet.
Biden also has working class cred.
So let’s recap why Clinton lost: elitist, dishonest, wealthier than the Kennedys because of her political connections. Biden: working class, honest(often painfully so), and poor as dirt(relatively speaking).
After stumping for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018, Hillary Clinton uses her “success” to become the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
Nixon used this strategy to return from the political grave in 1968 after being counted out by pundits.
Remember: it’s her turn.
If Biden ran, the Trump team would rat-fuck him so hard with fake sexual-misconduct allegations, and people would believe them because he already has a reputation for touching people, including kids, in an awkward way. “Creepy uncle Joe” is already a meme. Here’s an article about it from The Week and another one from The Daily Beast.
Biden has too much potential baggage from a lifetime spent in politics. Who KNOWS what they’d dig up on him - and I’m talking about real things - if they had the motivation?
This just goes back to why I believe it won’t be any of the Big 5 (Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, Sanders, Warren): There’s plenty of time for them to get their attacks (and fake news) queued up and ready to fire. The Dems need to find someone who is, at this point in the game, under the radar, with some executive experience and is a white dude. The ticket does need some diversity, military experience, and midwest/rustbelt bonafides, but that can come in the form of a running mate as well.
My favorites for top of ticket:
-William McRaven* (or some other retired admiral/general)
-Richard Trumka
-Jay Inslee
-Steve Bullock
All white dudes, largely off the national presidential radar, with executive experience. Obviously, a little vetting should remove any who have done anything bad/sexually aggressive toward the women around them.
I wish Pennsylvania’s Tom Wolf had more charisma or political experience, but alas.
*I actually just read that McRaven has cited health concerns as the reason he’s stepping down from his college presidential gig. I think he’s fighting a type of cancer. Maybe he’s not up for a presidential run either.
Jerry Brown. Most populous state. Very successful Governor.
The opposition would paint him as the ultimate effete, elitist, out-of-touch, CALIFORNIA liberal. His actual fucking nickname is “Governor Moonbeam.” The chance of him connecting with Rust Belt voters is ZERO. Also, he’d be 82 years old when he took office. NO THANKS!
Can’t the Democrats just run a sandwich with “not a con man/liar/senile” written on it with sharpie and win this?
I just don’t see how they could lose this time. Hillary was a deeply unpopular candidate, and if we had the 2016 election : rematch today, she’d win it. The margins were tiny in favor of Trump.
So it seems like the 2020 election will be about the nomination for the Democrats - who do the Democrats rig the process in favor of this time?
Though there is a possibility that Trump’s mental decline will reach the point that he’s removed from office or he doesn’t run for reelection. I feel that’s actually a strong possibility. If his brain really is degrading, and he’s this incoherent now…what will it be like in 2-3 more years?
As for Democrat candidates that might win :
How could Tom Hanks/The Rock (with Hanks for President) not get elected? Tom Hanks is charismatic, good looking, and we’ve seen him in action in ww2 in several different movies. Clearly the American public cares more about image that ‘actual’ credentials. And he’s 61 today, he’d be 64 in 2020, so a decade younger than Trump.
The Rock did some weird stuff as a wrestler, so running him as Vice President makes total sense to me. That would give the Hanks ticket the boost from the rock’s immense popularity without bringing whatever dirt there is out on him into the front page.
Actually, I’d say that Nixon type scenario might have worked for a Romney. Lose in 2012, then the party nominates an extreme candidate like Trump (Goldwater), then a Romney could return for 2020.
Of course, that’s not what happened.
Even the much younger Al Gore decided against trying for a rematch in 2004 after losing a close election.
If not the proles, then the morlocks.
Certainly, his debate performance was pretty pathetic, if that mattered at all.
The issues with Kaine’s kid being active in antifa-type violent protests would probably eliminate any residual feeling that he might be a viable candidate.
538’s take on 2020 Prez candidates:
No big surprise names here – the biggest are Warren, Gillibrand, Sanders, Klobuchar, Harris, and Booker. There’s things I like about each one, and I’d happily support any of them if they got the Democratic nomination. Not sure yet who I’d favor. And I’d consider various governors (Steve Bullock of MT, for example) as well.
Not Harris, Not Warren. Jeff Merkley looks good, the other two are real dark horses to me. Booker might work.
I could sure get behind Merkley. He’s been a wonderful Senator here in Oregon.
How are we feeling about Mark Warner?
Hopefully, after the midterms, the first two candidates that need to be destroyed politically are Sanders and Gillibrand. I really hope Sanders, as a one trick pony, doesn’t try to run again. If he continues to have his delusions of godhood, then his senate colleagues need to remind everyone of his corrupt wife who managed to bankrupt a university. I’m sure they haven’t forgotten the arrogance of Sanders who refused to quit even after he got his ass kicked in the Democratic primary. He embarrassed himself by strutting around with his secret service protection for a month after the end of the primaries when he promised to take it to the convention.
Gillibrand showed herself to be vile, opportunistic scum with her sandbagging of Al Franken.
And yet, of course, if either Sanders or Gillibrand became the nominee, I’d vote for them in the general election after campaigning vigorously against them during the primary season. Unlike Bernie Bros, I’m not a purity pony. Donald Trump or Mike Pence can not be president on January 20, 2021.
I think Sanders knows it’s over for him. I would be astonished if he was on any ballot in 2020.
Whoever runs against Trump in 2020 needs to be the kind of personality who can publicly humiliate him, rattle him, throw him off his game just the way he himself did to all the other candidates in the GOP primary. It will need to be someone who can persuade all the working class Rust Belt people who voted for Trump that he actually is fucking them over and not looking out for them like they hoped he would; persuade them with personal charisma, not just facts and figures.
I watched some clips of him on YouTube and he strikes me as a Tim Kaine clone. He doesn’t sound confident, authoritative, and engaging enough, in my opinion, to be a viable candidate. Cory Booker is my guy.
Or maybe she actually believed what she said (and I agree with what she said), especially considering her consistency in fighting against sexual assault and harassment.