Looks like 20 Republican and 16 Democratic governorships are up for grabs in 2022. It should prove interesting as it goes along with a very partisan midterm election. Will the Trumpinistas triumph or will the result show his time has passed. What will happen in the true purple states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia? Do Michigan, Kansas, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania get flipped? And of course Ohio elections are always interesting.
In my state of Colorado, Gov. Polis (D) doesn’t have any real competition. The probable Republican nominee is Heidi Ganahl who is a Trump supporter and a University of Colorado Regent and being Colorado she’ll get some regional support but overall Polis is doing a good job so he’s staying. I suspect anyone else running for governor is just using it as an excuse to build a war chest for a US Rep or State Assembly run in 2024.
Here in Texas the anticipated Greg Abbott v Beto O’Rourke showdown is getting the headlines, but neither one is quite a lock just yet. Abbott has two primary opponents on his right (in case you were wondering whether it was possible to get to Abbott’s right) – former state Senator Don Huffines and former Florida Congressman and crazy person Allen West. They’ve both been hammering his pretty mild and pretty quickly retracted coronavirus measures as a betrayal of “our freedom.” Abbott’s probably going to be fine, but the worry for him is that his primary opponents can hold him to under 50%, forcing him into a runoff on a random Tuesday where turnout will be way down and things could get unpredictable.
Beto likewise has some primary opposition, the most well-known of whom is probably a former reporter for the Austin NPR station. He should also be fine.
Either way, the days when Republicans could expect to win the Governor’s office by 20 points are likely in the past. This year I predict that they’ll only win by ten points.
Gavin Newsom is up in CA again having handily defeated a absurd (timing-wise and in other ways) recall this last year. I doubt he will have any serious internal challenge. We’ll see who the Republicans rally around now that Larry Elder (a sure loser) has declared he is out. But my guess is Newsom will coast to another semi-comfortable victory against anyone they can field.
Tony Evers won by a whisker during a mid-term election against an otherwise excellent Governor Scott Walker who had [stupidly] joined the crowded race for POTUS (and late in the game at that), souring some towards him, and was facing blowback from the Foxconn deal.
Hopefully Wisconsin voters realize their 2018 hissy fit gave us this ineffective dullard and they use better sense this time.
Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke each convincingly won his party primary for Texas governor yesterday. On to the main event. Turnout in the Republican primary dwarfed turnout on the Democratic side, which does not bode well for November.
I’m reviving this thread, as there are some interesting races heating up. Texas, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, to name a few.
538 is forecasting that 2 seats are certain to flip from Republican to Democrat, while 2 other seats may very well flip from blue to red.
Here in Kansas, Democrat incumbent Laura Kelly is polling slightly ahead of Attorney General Derek Schmidt. The campaign seems to be Sam Brownback vs Joe Biden, as Kelly’s ads continually talk about how Brownback bankrupted the state, with AG Schmidt backing him every step of the way. Schmidt’s ad talk about Biden’s inflation, as if Kelly’s spending policies have anything to do with it. Schmidt is also attacking Kelly on her stance regarding transgender athletes; Riley Gaines appears on my TV 20 times a day. Kelly is also running on her economic record; Kansas is now flush with cash and new industry is moving into the state. She’s running as the ‘education governor’, but Schmidt is attacking her for shuttering the schools early during the pandemic. I’m hoping that the abortion vote in August can carry over to November.
How about your state? Is your state electing a governor this year? Will your state flip? If so, which way?
Unfortunately, Texas “heating up” seems to involve Abbott holding a steady 5-7 point lead over Beto in recent polling. Certainly better than Democrats are used to polling, but unless something happens to shift the dynamics of this race Abbott’s going to be reelected.
Which Abbott is well aware of. The two candidates recently had their only debate of the campaign. It was on a Friday night, in Edinburg, with no audience and a prohibition on it being rebroadcast. All at the Abbott campaign’s insistence (though, to be fair, Beto agreed to it).
I’m in Michigan, and the gov race isn’t heating up. It seems Trumplican candidateTudor Dixon is struggling to get support from anyone whatsoever. Big Gretch should have this one easily. 538 currently gives her a 96% chance of winning.
Here is CA Gavin Newsom is over 99% . I’m not entirely sure if most people even know who is running against him. Brian Dahle is actually quite a bit less nutty than the guy who ran against Newsom in the recall (Dahle: “I’m not a crazy Republican. I’m a reasonable person.”), but he has a snowball’s chance in hell out here in Bluetopia. Also, reasonable or not he voted for Trump in 2020, so an automatic NOPE from me.
Here in Illinois, incumbent Democrat J.D. Pritzker has a big lead over the Republican challenger, Darren Bailey. Barring any October surprise, he should win re-election.
In my home state of Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers has been losing ground in the polls to Tim Michels in recent weeks, though 538 still gives Evers a slight edge.
The state of the Arizona Governor’s race is troubling. After trailing throughout the campaign, MAGA firebrand/Big Lie supporter Kari Lake has surged ahead in recent polling. Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, which Lake has turned into a major negative against her.
Both CNN and Fox have called it for Hobbs. The Arizona governorship means nothing to me personally, but it’s such a relief to see Kari Lake lose – what a Trumpist tool, an election denier and raving conspiracy theorist. Fox does point out that the margin of victory allows for the possibility of a recount, which I’m sure Lake will call for while decrying “election fraud”. So it may not be over yet.
It should be all over but the shouting. Recounts typically yield very, very little substantive change. There are still a little >50,000 ballots outstanding, but the odds that Lake gains enough ground to make a recount interesting are probably 100:1. Or worse.
Arizona has been sorta ground central for crazy-ass election-denial the last couple of years. Flipping the Governor’s seat and holding on to the Secretary of State position is potentially a big deal in context. AZ is a very purple state and Lake is just the kind of whackadoodle that you could worry might try and pull shenanigans in a closely contested 2024 Presidential election.
Of course I could be mistaken but as it stands I am fairly certain Fox is wrong about the recount. Currently Hobbs has a .78% lead. My understanding is in AZ a recount happens when the difference is within .5%.
The race could still get there but as others have pointed out, recounts rarely result in a reversal.
. I’m not entirely sure if most people even know who is running against him. Brian Dahle is actually quite a bit less nutty than the guy who ran against Newsom in the recall (Dahle: “I’m not a crazy Republican. I’m a reasonable person.”), but he has a snowball’s chance in hell out here in Bluetopia. Also, reasonable or not he voted for Trump in 2020, so an automatic NOPE from me.