2022 Governor Races

Looks like 20 Republican and 16 Democratic governorships are up for grabs in 2022. It should prove interesting as it goes along with a very partisan midterm election. Will the Trumpinistas triumph or will the result show his time has passed. What will happen in the true purple states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia? Do Michigan, Kansas, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania get flipped? And of course Ohio elections are always interesting.

In my state of Colorado, Gov. Polis (D) doesn’t have any real competition. The probable Republican nominee is Heidi Ganahl who is a Trump supporter and a University of Colorado Regent and being Colorado she’ll get some regional support but overall Polis is doing a good job so he’s staying. I suspect anyone else running for governor is just using it as an excuse to build a war chest for a US Rep or State Assembly run in 2024.

Here in Texas the anticipated Greg Abbott v Beto O’Rourke showdown is getting the headlines, but neither one is quite a lock just yet. Abbott has two primary opponents on his right (in case you were wondering whether it was possible to get to Abbott’s right) – former state Senator Don Huffines and former Florida Congressman and crazy person Allen West. They’ve both been hammering his pretty mild and pretty quickly retracted coronavirus measures as a betrayal of “our freedom.” Abbott’s probably going to be fine, but the worry for him is that his primary opponents can hold him to under 50%, forcing him into a runoff on a random Tuesday where turnout will be way down and things could get unpredictable.

Beto likewise has some primary opposition, the most well-known of whom is probably a former reporter for the Austin NPR station. He should also be fine.

Either way, the days when Republicans could expect to win the Governor’s office by 20 points are likely in the past. This year I predict that they’ll only win by ten points.

Gavin Newsom is up in CA again having handily defeated a absurd (timing-wise and in other ways) recall this last year. I doubt he will have any serious internal challenge. We’ll see who the Republicans rally around now that Larry Elder (a sure loser) has declared he is out. But my guess is Newsom will coast to another semi-comfortable victory against anyone they can field.

Tony Evers won by a whisker during a mid-term election against an otherwise excellent Governor Scott Walker who had [stupidly] joined the crowded race for POTUS (and late in the game at that), souring some towards him, and was facing blowback from the Foxconn deal.

Hopefully Wisconsin voters realize their 2018 hissy fit gave us this ineffective dullard and they use better sense this time.