Eric Greitens – remember this guy? Republican Governor of Missouri, forced to resign three years ago over allegedly having an affair with his hairdresser and assaulting her and blackmailing her with nudes (he admitted the affair but denied the assault and blackmail). Well, he’s back and running for Senate in Missouri.
He’s got an excellent chance at the nomination. The criminal case against him fell apart, and he’s gone full Trumpist over the last three years. He can play right into the Republican grievance culture by claiming that he was targeted by a Democratic prosecutor on bogus charges. Anonymous MO Republican leaders are reportedly “wringing their hands” over the prospects of nomination, which means they’ll cluck their tongues a couple of times then do everything in their power to secure his election.
Still, he’s the kind of candidate who maaaaaaybe gives the right Democrat a shot in Missouri.
any candidate in any state running as full Trumper is probably going to get the GOP nomination for senate in 2022. Here in NC that’s probably going to be Lara who is married to Eric Trump and she’s from here.
he started the lie about cheating against him 2016 as an excuse when he expected to lose. It’s no surprise that he said the same thing after he did lose.
Maybe. This is almost certainly true in the red states and the blue states. I think the more traditional Republicans have a chance in purple states, especially in places where they are trying to knock off a Democratic incumbent.
Now the talk is one term GOP NC governor Pat McCrory is going to run for senate in 2022. He lost re-election in 2016 in a very close race . He might be able to beat Lara Trump in the GOP primary.
While the Republican establishment will certainly push more (relatively) centrist candidates in purple state primaries because they see them as more electable in the general election, Republican state parties in swing states aren’t more “moderate” or “establishment” than other states. They’re full of the same rabid Trumpers as other state GOPs. They just happened to be balanced at the state level by an equal number of Democrats.
I’m taking all these “probable candidates” with a huge grain of salt right now.
I think a some of these potential candidacies are little more than fund-raising ploys.
Not about the Senate, as such, but an interesting look at post-Trump politics for three Republican governors.
And as to Rob Portman’s US Senate seat…
Me, watching Trump incite Republican internecine squabbling:
Man, I want to believe that Ohio is a legitimate pickup opportunity but the trends there are not promising.
Agreed, I’m sorry to say, especially in a Democratic President’s midterms.
An exceptional, inspirational candidate could get it done. Is there an Ohio Obama?
Just a general note here, Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report and a guy whose knowledge of the electorate is among the very best, tweeted during an exchange yesterday that Georgia was definitely going the way of Virginia in its political preferences.
Now, lots of people have been saying that but when Wasserman says it with conviction, I feel like it’s a real thing. Because he’s not the sunshiney kind of Dem-leaning analyst. He calls it straight, even when things don’t look good for the good guys.
Dave Wasserman Tweet…
I know next to nothing about Ohio politics, but had a general sense that it’s been reddening in recent years. But even I was surprised by just how much Republicans dominate elected offices in Ohio: all statewide elected offices, enormous majorities in the state legislature, a 12-4 advantage in the Congressional delegation. That kind of advantage makes it very tough for an “Ohio Obama” to emerge.
Flurb is right. I’ve been an Ohio Democrat since I came of age in the mid-Eighties, and I don’t know of one. There are several good Dems who’ve run statewide and lost in recent years, but I’m afraid I don’t know of any who are, with any great likelihood of success, up to the challenge of the U.S. Senate race next year.
Trump did better in 2020 in Ohio than he did in 2016, in both votes cast and percentage of the vote. This, after his demonstrated incompetence, and lie after lie about coal and automotive jobs, and needless COVID and opioid epidemic deaths, and a severe recession on his watch. It’s baffling and discouraging to me. And although gerrymandering reform is soon to take effect, it’s still a very tough row to hoe for any Dem statewide.
Even without whatever voter suppression efforts Ohio Republicans come up with, I think that seat is a stretch. My guess is that Democrats have a less than 5% chance, even in a fair election.