The way too early PredictIt derived 2020 senate thermometer…
Key races from most likely to least likely D:
NV 78.9%
AZ 69.6%
PA 67.4%
NH 64.0%
GA 54.6%
WI 44.3%
NC 34.9%
OH 12.6%
FL 11.0%
Aargh… 2022.
If the above favorites all win, that’s only a gain of one seat. An improvement, still. I think a good candidate can win Wisconsin, though.
I can understand Kelly and Warnock potentially having tough races, but it sucks to see Nevada and New Hampshire on the list as being that close. Are Cortez-Masto and Hassan really in that much trouble?
We’re way far out so wouldn’t be too worried yet, but both Cortez-Masto and Hassan won their seats with less than 50% of the vote in 2016.
I actually think that list is being kind of rosy about Nevada. Nevada was a Republican-leaning state in 2020 relative to the national popular vote, incumbency advantage is not what it used to be, and correlation between presidential and senate elections is on the rise. In a 50-50 national environment, which would be a historic landslide victory for Democrats relative to usual midterm trends (the second-best midterm for the incumbent party since 1978, I believe), I would expect Catherine Cortez Masto to lose against a generic Republican. Of course, candidate quality still matters (though not as much as it did even a decade ago) and Nevada Republicans do have a history of nominating lunatics in high-stakes Senate elections; Nevada has also been hit especially hard by the covid economy, so a good recovery could especially benefit Democrats there.
The fundamentals are better in New Hampshire, but Maggie Hassan’s approval is not so great and the very popular Republican governor might choose to run against her. The saving grace there is that New Hampshire’s governor has a two-year term, so he has to choose between the jobs and he might well choose to stay governor instead.
Roy Blunt won’t run for Senate seat in 2022
It’s a long shot for a dem pick up, but until we know the candidates it’s certainly worth some idle speculation.
Blunt only beat Jason Kander by about 3% (~78k votes) in 2016 while Trump beat Clinton by almost 20% (>500k votes) that year.
FWIW, Kander has indicated that he is not running for Blunt’s seat in a Tweet this morning.
Here’s CNN on the Blunt retirement:
And see:
What’s Todd Akin up to these days? I think the only way Dems have a shot is if the MO GOP nominate someone of his ilk again. Sadly, though, talk about “legitimate rape” may not be as disqualifying in a post-Trump world.
Akin is 73 years old and living comfortably. There’s a whole generation of ambitious Republicans stacked up in lower offices (four out of five statewide elected officials, and six out of eight members of Congress, not to mention a whole passel of term-limited state legislators) who want to move up.
And what a loss that was. I hope Kander is doing better with his depression and considers reentering politics once this Trump phase is beyond is.
Sadly for MO it will be a battle between a ton of super-right candidates trying to outdo each other to carry the Trump mantle. Whoever survives that will win the seat - I think even Grietens would win the general if he gets out of the primary.
That sounds like good news to me:
…
History suggests Republicans are still well-positioned to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress next year. But officials in both parties agree that the surge of GOP departures will make the Republicans’ challenge more difficult in the Senate.“Any time you lose an incumbent, it’s bad news,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, who briefly worked for failed Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin nearly a decade ago. “Missouri’s not necessarily a safe state for Republicans. Democrats have won there.”
…
Agreed ThelmaLou. At almost 2 years out I’m not ready to start the handwringing just yet.
WI GOP Senator and general waste of carbon and oxygen Ron Johnson told a conservative radio host that he never felt threatened by the Jan. 6 insurrectionists because he, “knew those are people that love this country, that truly respect law enforcement, would never do anything to break the law.” This of people who injured over 100 law enforcement officers, killing one with two more committing suicide. Whose actions led to the death of four others, including the shooting death of an insurrectionist trying to enter the Speaker’s lobby as members fled.
BUT, he says, he would have been a “little concerned” if it had been BLM or “antifa” protestors entering the Capitol.
Wisconsin, please do the right thing.