“More likely,” agreed, but giving Ohio Dems just a 5% chance to win is, I think, far too pessimistic.
Obviously the best hope for Democrats is that Republicans nominate completely off-the-reservation nutjobs for open seats in OH, PA, NC and (should Grassley retire) IA. Todd Akins, Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnel stand as recent examples of Republicans pissing away winnable Senate elections by nominating people with extreme views. Mitch McConnel is more than aware of this, of course, and so the needle he’ll try to thread is finding and promoting candidates in these states with some Trump-y credibility but enough sense not to talk about “legitimate rape.”
PredictIt has markets for at least six 2022 senate races already in addition to some other senate related markets (primaries and such).
Select races…
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Arizona in 2022? D 57¢ R 44¢
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? D 27¢ R 74¢
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Georgia in 2022? D 55¢ R 47¢
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? D 44¢ R 57¢
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? D 26¢ R 79¢
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? D 60¢ R 41¢
And overall control of the senate…
Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? D 56¢ R 45¢
No market for Wisconsin yet, but my guess is that America’s Dairyland will be one of the next ones added.
Lindsey Graham says he’s worried about the GOP’s Senate prospects next year (about halfway down here):
Not in this cycle, but Ted Cruz didn’t help his 2024 chances a bit by running off to Cancun as his constituents suffer without power.
I think a huge factor will be just who shows up? I think there’s a sizable number in the Cult of Donald that only show up to vote when he is personally on on the ballot, Another factor is how are Biden’s numbers going to be at midterm? So far so good, if covid is extinguished and the economy takes off, I think that’s good for Democrats.
The expectation is Grassley is planning to hand the reins over to his grandson Pat, who is currently Speaker of the Iowa House. I know little of the junior except he seems to support all the stupid the Iowa GOP can come up with.
I came by to say the same thing. Please feel free to throw this back at me in four years.
Some discussion of the 2022 Senate race in North Carolina here:
I don’t know anything about Iowa politics, but I wonder how easy it would be for him to “hand the reins” to his grandson. Senate seats don’t come open that often, and I’m sure Iowa is brimming with ambitious Republicans who wouldn’t let him walk to the nomination uncontested. Still, if he’s the House Speaker he must be better positioned than most to win a contested primary.
Maybe Chuck could cut a sneaky deal with the Governor that he would run for reelection, then shortly afterward find an excuse to resign (shouldn’t be hard at 89 years old). The Governor could then appoint his grandson to the seat. The problem is that voters tend to look down on these kind of shenanigans, and I can’t see why the Governor would agree to go along with it.
I had a thought and a question about Flyin’ Ted Cancun Cruz and 2024. If he files for a presidential run, can he drop out and subsequently file for the Texas Senate race? Is the answer dependent on the Texas deadlines?
He can run for both simultaneously. LBJ had the law changed in 1960 so he could run for re-election to the Senate and on the Kennedy ticket.
Like many states here in NC both parties start out around 45% . I expect at least 1 other person to challenge Lara Trump in the primary. You only need 40% to avoid a runoff
Thanks for this information, flurb. So the next question is, will he file for both offices, seeing the Senate as his fall back position if and when he is trounced by The Don in the primaries? If he does run for the Senate again, I see this as a winnable seat for the Dems, as his margin of victory from 2012-2018 fell from 16% to 3% and the electorate there gets ever bluer with each year.
I read a lot about changing demographics and, on those rare occasions when you can find an objective piece from a Republican strategist who will address those bleak (for them) changes, their solutions remain the same: (1) engage in greater identity security efforts, what we call “suppression,” (2) raise the voting age and (3) continue to gerrymander the living fuck out of state legislatures and House districts. They are completely unabashed about these views, never raising an iota of concern about basic fairness. Republicans and Democrats truly live in different worlds.
One more musing about the near future: if Dems pick up another couple of seats in the Senate (unlikely but not impossible) and hold the House in '22, does this affect Trump’s decision to run again in '24? Even he knows that he couldn’t survive four years with both parts of Congress aligned against him but maybe he would think that his very awesome presence would be enough to flip 'em both?
Why would he think this? The most recent Senate vote to remove him came up ten votes short. Absent a massive Democratic majority in the Senate (which the structure of the Senate makes very hard to obtain), there’d be no way to force him out.
Yeah, I forgot about the two thirds needed to convict. But I also thought that a lot of the awful shit he got away with while having a Republican Senate would be stuff he’d have a lot of trouble running through with a hostile one. Everything he did would be challenged, with some muscle behind it this time, and all of his confirmations would be denied. Some of the rules he routinely ignored would be grounds for battle with a Dem Senate.
But I don’t think he stands a chance of winning again anyway. Now, things change quickly sometimes and I’m lousy at prognostication, but four million new voters becoming eligible every year who oppose him by a 2-to-1 margin means his chances of hitting another inside straight are exceedingly slim. The important thing to remember about Millennial and Gen Z voters is that they are showing no signs of turning to the right as they age and their participation levels are at close to record highs for their age brackets. This is a potential two-generation disaster for the GOP.
Then again:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/23/politics/david-perdue-2022-senate-race/index.html
Yes. Lloyd Bensten availed himself of the law, too, as Mike Dukakis’s running mate in 1988, and won reelection to the Senate.
Just one teensy little problem with that: Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution - Wikipedia
I still hope Trump comes through on his promise to throw a wrench into the works in Georgia next year, particularly with regard to the governor’s race but also to mess with the GOP Senate candidate. In fact, he can interfere with as many GOP candidates as he likes…
Not sure where to post this. (I’m having Clusterfuck thread withdrawal…). The Beaten One goes on.
All formatting is in the original.
President Trump didn’t have to punish his critics in Congress — his allies back in the states instantly and eagerly did the dirty work.
Why it matters: Virtually every Republican who supported impeachment was censured back home, or threatened with a primary challenge.
- Today through Sunday, many will make the trek to a sold-out CPAC (“America Uncanceled”) in Orlando to kiss the ring — and trash the “traitors.”
We’re quickly seeing that Trump’s true power source is in the states, powered by 2020 success.
- Republicans picked up 14 House seats, including a dozen they lost two years earlier. They need +6 in 2022.
- In 2021, Republicans will have full control of the legislative and executive branches in 24 states. Democrats will have full control of the legislative and executive branch in 15 states.
- "Republicans hold total control of redistricting in 18 states, including Florida, North Carolina and Texas, which are growing in population and expected to gain seats after the 2020 census is tabulated," the N.Y. Times reports (subscription). “Some election experts believe the G.O.P. could retake the House in 2022 based solely on gains from newly drawn districts.”
- Democrats targeted nine states to flip control and failed in all.
The bottom line: Look at how the state parties are censuring anti-Trumpers. In the eyes of the base, the party thrived under Trump — and see anti-Trumpers as the reason the GOP didn’t do even better.