Too early to talk about the 2024 races? I guarantee you the party poohbahs are already talking about them! With the very important caveat that one 2022 Senate race is yet to be determined, below is my take on the state of the 2024 Senate races.
The full list of “Class 1” Senate seats up for election can be found here. There likely will also be a special election in Nebraska to fill resigning Senator Ben Sasse’s seat.
An important consideration is that these elections will (obviously) take place concurrently with the 2024 Presidential election, and in the last two Presidential elections there was only one instance (Maine in 2020) where a state voted for Presidential and Senate candidates of different parties. Also, we don’t know yet what many incumbents plan to do, which will obviously have a big impact on the state of play. There’s only one confirmed open seat so far – Mike Braun of Indiana has announced he’ll run for governor rather than reelection.
Looking at the seats in play – which I would define as either a state with a Cook PVI of five or less or any incumbent bucking his/her state’s partisan lean – I’d group them thusly:
Do You Believe in Miracles?
Montana, Ohio and West Virginia (all Democratic incumbents)
These are the three states that Trump convincingly won in 2016 and 2020 and have Democratic incumbents up for reelection. All three have a significant R partisan lean. J.D. Vance just handily won an open Senate seat race in Ohio despite running a lazy campaign. The advantage Democrats have is that all three incumbents are battle-tested and have built their own brands back home independent of their party affiliation. This gives them a shot. But if Manchin, Tester or Brown retire, their seats are gone.
Living on the Edge
Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (all Democratic incumbents)
These states went to Biden in 2020 but by less than the nationwide average. They will undoubtedly be battlegrounds in the Presidential election. Four of them had close Senate elections this past cycle – Republicans held Wisconsin and lost in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. As in this election, candidate quality could be critical. Liberals in Arizona are threatening to primary Sinema, but a more liberal candidate may not be a better general election candidate in a Presidential election year.
Ride the Red Wave
Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia (all [functionally] Democratic Incumbents)
These states have relatively small (+1 to +3) Democratic leans and could be competitive. Republicans notably cleaned up in Virginia’s off-year state elections last year. But all four have seasoned incumbents, and with the sheer number of targets Republicans will have this cycle they may have to make some choices about which ones they prioritize.
Uhm . . . No.
Texas and Florida (Republican incumbents)
Should be competitive-ish on paper – last time Trump carried TX by 5.5% and FL by 3.5%, Cruz and Scott had close elections last time. But the bottom fell out in Florida this year, and Texas is only trending a little bluer than recent history because it could not possibly have gotten much redder. The Democratic Party in both states is depleted with no obvious candidates in the wings.
So all-in-all, a very favorable set up for Republicans. If Warnock prevails in Georgia, Republicans will need to net two Senate seats OR one Senate seat plus the Vice Presidency to control the Senate. If Walker wins, they will need a one seat pickup, or they won’t need any seats if the win the White House. Honestly, it’s hard to see how they don’t end up controlling the Senate after 2024, but stranger things have happened!