A thread suggested by Railer13.
Some polling that may be of interest:
For the thread on the upper house: 2024 US Senate Elections
I suggested this thread in no small part because of the number of Congress People that are not running for re-election this November. The latest to announce his ‘retirement’ is Jake LaTurner, GOP from the 2nd district in Kansas. He’s just 36 years old, in his 2nd term in the House, and has been viewed as a rising star in the Kansas Republican circles. He may have his sights set elsewhere, but he has not announced any other future political plans.
The district is solid Republican, especially after the city of Lawrence was gerrymandered out of the district and placed in the solidly rural first district. Hope, however, can spring eternal, especially if the Dems can find somebody with solid name recognition who wants to attempt a run at the House seat.
By all means!
Here’s more: https://www.axios.com/2023/11/18/2024-senators-house-open-seats-reelection
One thing that will be a critical edge for the Democrats- trump has taken over the RNC for his own election and legal bills.
The RNC and DNC often carefully spend funds on little known purple elections, making very strategic choices. The RNC won’t do that this election.
How much will that make a difference? I think quite a bit.
The GOP now has a one seat edge, the House can easily go Dem.
Please, dear God, may it be so.
One thing that may help Republicans a bit is that the now-common-place round of mid-decennial redistricting has been in their favor. They all but guaranteed themselves three more seats (and a shot at a fourth) with an aggressive gerrymander in NC. Democrats are likely to pick up a seat each in LA and AL after courts ordered the creation of an additional minority opportunity district.
Whereas NY Democrats completely whiffed – given the courts’ blessing to redistrict a judicially imposed map that saw several seats go Republican in 2022, the state Democrats who control the Legislature and the Governors’ office ended up making only minor changes.
Donald Payne Jr just died in office. The district is about as firmly democratic as possible but it hurts the Ds until he’s replaced. He’s been in the hospital for a few weeks.
I love his kind of shit – incumbent Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) announced his retirement just after the deadline to file for the primary. And surprise, surprise, his hand-picked successor quietly filed to run just before the deadline. The maneuver ensures the successor will have no significant primary competition in an overwhelmingly Republican district.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/26/florida-bill-posey-retirement-00154658
And the reddest of all Kansas Pubs has just filed for this soon-to-be-open seat.
Schmidt’s a real prick.
Huge might be Colorado D3 and D8 . D3 barely went MAGA with Boebert who has left the district and is running in D4. D8 barely went Democratic (2000 vote difference) and the Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer made a few fumbles during the election, namely being anti-abortion even for incest and rape and then came out saying it’s ok for incest and rape. Either party can pick up a seat which may be huge if we have a split like we do now.
A three-judge panel overturned Louisianna’s Congressional map yesterday, throwing into chaos what congressional districts will look like just six months before the general election. The Louisianna legislature had just rewritten the maps in January under a federal court order to produce an additional “minority opportunity” district to comply with Voting Rights Act requirements. This federal court panel ruled 2-1 that the new map violates constitutional Equal Protection requirements. The two judges in the majority are both Trump appointees.
My periodic and probably annoying reminder that while there are things we can do to slightly improve districting processes, we can not really resolve the problem as long as we insist on having single member districts.
Every districting process that winds up in court is a testament to systemic failure.