I thought it would be useful to start a thread on the impact Trump’s nomination should have on Senate and House races coming up in November.
Right now, the Republicans have a 54-46 lead, but looking at the numbers, it looks like the Democrats are going to have strong chance to both win a number of “tossup” states, retain some seats they were terrified of losing, and even potentially give them a fighting chance for what used to be considered safe Republican seats.
Right now, there are four Republican seats up for reelection that are classified by Larry Sabato as “tossups” meaning anyone could win. Florida(Rubio isn’t running), Ohio(Portman), New Hampshire(Ayotte), and Pennsylvania(Toomey). Additionally, there are two other seats with Republican incumbents that were already listed as leaning Democrat even before it was made clear that Trump was the lone nominee. Wisconsin(Johnson) and Illinois(Kirk).
While I don’t want to overstate it, the combination of a record high turnout among Hispanics as well as the strong possibility of a record low voter turnout amongst movement conservatives, Evangelicals, and Mormons could make matters far worse for Republicans.
Additionally, Dems were very nervous about retaining Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada with him retiring and Michael Bennett’s seat in Colorado. Considering the sizable Hispanic populations those states have as well as the extent Republicans in those states depend on Mormons and Evangelicals, I suspect they’re breathing easier.
Arizona also has a huge Hispanic population and while not that long ago it would have been unthinkable that McCain would lose the seat, but McCain was overheard telling fundraisers that he’s in the fight for his life and that certainly wouldn’t surprise me.
It looks to me like the Republicans will probably lose the Senate and at the very least lose a bunch of Congressional seats.
What do other people think?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/