There! I said it. I see a looming Republican catastrophe.
Also, I predict many of us, including me. will be seriously disappointed with how little the Democrats will change course their rightward trends.
Well, now you’ve gone and jinxed it. I hope you’re proud of yourself.
The best thing that would come out of a result like that would Right Wing Radio.
If that result comes to pass I will immediately set forth in my attempt record every minute of every show and then try not to die laughing at Limbaugh, Beck, Levin, Carr, Savage, et al.
I hope you knocked on wood when you wrote that. If not, I did for you.
The outlook wasn’t brilliant for the Mudville nine that day: The score stood four to two, with but one inning more to play,…*
*Casey at the Bat, if you didn’t know.
Somehow, *Mighty Hilary *at the Bat doesn’t have the same punch to it.
We’ll rewrite it then.
But there is joy in Mudville—mighty Hillary drilled one over the “right” field fence.
(knocks on wood again)
Dream on.
I don’t suppose you’re willing to put some money on that prediction, are you?
No. Never bet on a Democrat to actually accomplish anything. I say this as a Democrat.
The Democrats will take control of the Senate. (And their first action should be to change the filibuster rules. Do it immediately while the iron is hot, or they’ll regret it later.)
The House is in play. This is where the risks of gerrymandering will become apparent. When districts are arranged so that one party has a slight advantage in many, they’ll do well in typical years. But when there’s a tide change, that slight advantage can drain away in every district at once. I expect some states to have massive shifts in their representation (Ohio, for example).
The biggest risk Democrats face is low turn out. Everyone will see that they’re going to win, so why bother to vote? Because of this, all the players (Democrats, Republicans, the media) are going to make the race look tighter than it really is. We saw this to some extent in 2012. It’s going to be more of the same this year. Enjoy the ride!
The latest polls show Trump and Clinton to be effectively tied in the swing states of FL, PA, and OH.
I’d say an act of Radical Islamic Terrorism shortly before the election.
(The phrase “Radical Islamic Terrorism” will be used by only one of the parties.)
I’m counting on a low Republican turn out that will allow for a Democratic victory.
Excellent assessment of the current situation. Trump has the Democrats aligned against him along with half of his own party. It looks like a disaster for the GOP, and a general election where the progressive candidate is a Republican unsupported by his party, and the conservative candidate is a Democrat with the major attraction of not being her opponent.
Luckily there’s more fun to come, the semi-finals aren’t even over yet.
It’s too early to make such a prediction. I think the Democrats have the advantage right now for the Presidency and Senate (and the polling, in aggregate, along with the betting markets, seem to agree), but I wouldn’t bet a significant amount this early. As for the House, maybe the Democrats have improved their chances, but they were pretty low to begin with, and I don’t know if even an electoral landslide loss would be enough for the GOP to lose the House as well.
I’m willing to take the enormous reputational risk of prediction, but without the actual risk of betting money on it. 
Well, I do think the Democrats will win the presidency and possibly the Senate, but not confident on the House. Because I do think that by hook or by crook we will get a horse race and the closeness of the contest will be beneficial for the House Republicans.
I do think that the race will be made close not only by the efforts of people that will indeed go for the worst angels of their nature but also by the media that still has to squeeze all that advertising money from Trump.
There’s only about 10 points to swing either way. But winning by 10 percent in presidential elections is a landslide these days. Still, I’d expect a Hillary win by only a few points, and if Trump can manage to win it will be so close we’ll end up counting hanging chads again.
The press has not even begun to unload on Trump.
If you think about how many people Trump must have dealt with in his long career, if even a fraction of these people think he’s a jerk who ripped them off or otherwise acted reprehensibly, the press could be running non-stop stories and interviews every day until the election.
Most everything the Republicans have done in terms of gerrymandering and voter suppression strategy has depended on the presumption of close elections. They carefully trimmed the districts with that in mind, slipping a chunk of Republican voters into the next districts, just enough to get to the “50 percent plus one”. A shrewd and intelligent strategy, save for one detail: it is vulnerable.
A strategy the depends on winning by one or two percent in the “swing” districts has to be achieved by weakening the “solid” districts, spreading the certain Republican votes about where they can do the most good. In essence, they give up winning big in their solid districts for the advantage of winning narrowly in more places. Done carefully, they get the result they’ve gotten, where Dems get more votes for their candidates, but the Pubbies end up with more elected representatives.
So long as nothing much changes in the electorate, this is a solid and workable strategy. Worked great for them so far. But that was yesterday.
Jindal’s endorsement of Trump fairly thoroughly encompasses how I feel about this election between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. Neither is a pill I want to swallow but one is certainly better than the alternative.
Hillary does not inspire the same fervor Obama did, she is not nearly as charismatic or even likable. I wouldn’t be surprised if Republican turnout breaks previous records and the presidential race is exceedingly close considering Trump’s movement towards the center of late.
The wise money is still on Hillary, but only just and Trump is much, much better at using the media as a tool for his gain, perhaps most especially outlets that despise him.