Will Trump have 60 votes in the 2018 Senate?

Politics & Elections
1

Democrats must defend more seats. A lot more. The party starts with five crimson red seats to defend: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin that went Red for Trump.

Tim Kaine will also face re-election in closely divided Virginia in 2018. And if he does, a Democratic appointee could face an expensive special election in 2017 before the race for a full term the next year.

Bottom line: The Republicans look to gain 3-6 seats, just shy of a supermajority. Democrats tend to stay home during mid-term elections. I’m not sure why, and though Trump doesn’t have support over the 40% mark, his base can be fired up to vote. And the message will be we just need a few more seats to bring the type of change you’ve wanted. But to get what he wants to be done, he’ll need some Democratic help. Big Infrastructure. Dem’s want it, just make a deal with Trump on what he wants, and new roads, bridges, and governmental buildings, perhaps factory plants can happen with your face on breaking ground photos.

2

Let’s get the numbers out there. Pubs need to pick up 8 seats
Up for grabs: Pub: 8 Seats, Dem (including Sanders): 24 seats, Ind (Angus King): 1

3

Too late to ETA

Should we throw Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski into the IND category too? They’re not up for reelection but it would mean Trump needs a 10 seat pickup to be safe.

4

The opposition party tends to gain during midterms. If you look at special elections since the 2016 election, there has been a substantial swing toward Democrats. An average of 16 percentage points!

Obviously, Nov 2018 is a long way away, but the observable data does not point to the Republicans picking up 8 seats.

5

Do you know if anyone has plotted this data along with the amount of $$$ spent on these special elections vs previous elections?

I agree. 8 seats was always going to be a big stretch for the Republicans, even with the favorable map. With Trump’s approval rating hovering around 40, it’s not realistic to expect gains like that.

In 2008 with BHO’s coattails the Dems gained 8 seats, and in 2014 the Republicans gained 9 seats.

6

I don’t.

Although I remember reading in one of the Freakonomics books that money spent on elections doesn’t shift the vote very much at all

Maybe that doesn’t hold in special elections?

If it does, spending can’t remotely account for a 16-point swing.

7

If anything, the Republicans are more likely to see a net loss, albeit a slight one. The map is too unfavorable for the Democrats to do much damage, but the Republicans don’t actually have that many realistic pickup opportunities either. Manchin, for example, probably isn’t going anywhere. He’s won his prior elections by wide margins. States don’t necessarily lean the same way for US Senate or governor elections compared to presidential elections.

8

As of right now, we don’t know of any incumbent who is retiring (Corker hasn’t declared, but the rest have). The win rate for incumbent Senators in the out-of-Presidency party in mid-terms since 1982 is 96%. The win rate for incumbent Senators in the President’s party in mid-terms since 1982 is 80%.

Applying those historical averages, we’d get 1 Dem loss and 1-2 GOP losses, for a net GOP result of -1 to 0.

Taking it from the other end, looking at individual races in 2018, I think Heller is likely to lose his seat because of his healthcare votes and because he’s a Republican who votes like a Republican in a Dem state who barely squeeked by in his last election. Flake is a maybe, and I wouldn’t expect any other Dem pickups. On the other side, I think Donnelly is quite likely a goner. Maybe McCaskill. If things really go tits-up, maybe Heitkamp and Manchin. Tester, Brown, Nelson, and Kaine strike me as pretty safe.

Given those subjective impressions, we’d get 1-4 Dem losses and 1-2 GOP losses, for a net GOP result of -1 to +3.

Perhaps the sheer disparity in the seats up will create funding disparities that, along with Citizens United, will result in a huge GOP money advantage. Also, perhaps increased polarization will make Senate results more match Presidential results, putting many more Dems at risk than has been the historical norm. Both of those strike me as quite plausible. Of course, the big countervailing factor is that the President is likely to be extremely unpopular on election day. But if the political polarization hypothesis is right, then the President’s popularity matters less. Indeed, Republicans fear of impeachment might also be a countervailing force in their favor.

Given those wild card factors, I’d favor the GOP for a bonus seat or two in this era of extreme partisan polarization, beyond what you’d predict based on the historical model. That would put the GOP in the 1-3 seat range. I think they’ll end up at the top of that range. So I’d say the most likely result is GOP net gain of 3 seats.

But they need 8 seats to take over. No way, I say. **I’d put the odds of that around 10%. **

9

McCain almost certainly, possibly feet-first. That’ll put his seat up for election, even out-of-cycle. Not that that’s a likely Democratic pick-up, of course (unless there’s some up-and-coming Democratic superstar in Arizona that I don’t know about).

10

Good point. Certainly doesn’t help the GOP odds.

11

And thinking about it some more, I suppose that the Democratic superstar in Arizona might end up being a guy named “Not Joe Arapaio”. That guy still wouldn’t be a guarantee (after all, it didn’t work for Not Donald Trump), but might still have a chance.

12

The math 8 seats to defend vs. 24 seats to defend. The geography says Dem’s are in some trouble as well.

Trump campaigns well on the road to his base, these red states where Democrats must defend their seats are vulnerable.

I do not think using older models on midterms apply. The polls in the last election were wrong, and the voting attitudes have changed.

What exactly is the Dem’s message? They seem fixated on Russia ( with zero proof approaching a year in ) and have some of their own house cleanings to attend to.

13

I think the OP meant “Will Pence have 60 votes in the Senate?” The big question is how the electorate will respond to the resignation/impeachment of Dumb Donald. Will those that voted for him just sit out the 2018 election in disgust? Or will they come out in droves to vote for- well who exactly? His voters are a personality cult with no particular ideology. At this point with the exact time of the Donald’s departure uncertain, it’s premature to speculate on the impact on the Senate. Sure, the Democrats are unlikely to regain control with such an unfriendly map, but the non-presidential party typically rebounds a bit in the midterms. With the opposition having their leader resign in disgrace that can only help Democrats’ chances.

14

I’m expecting the Republicans to lose 2-4 seats in the Senate, based on Trump’s historic unpopularity* and the consistent 10 point lead the Democrats have been enjoying in the Generic Congressional polls. Neither are definitive, but both are indicative. I’m expecting Republicans in general to get 5-10% less in their upcoming elections, as opposed to the last ones.

*assuming he hasn’t been booted by then

15

The national polls were actually more accurate than they were in 2012.

The Dem message isn’t Russia (even though “zero proof” is an exaggeration). It’s middle class wages and jobs. It’s healthcare. And it’s the extreme incompetence of the Administration and the need for a Congress that checks it.

16

At what point do you think you’ll give up on this fantasy? If Trump’s still in office in January, will you then believe he’ll still be there in November? What about June? Or will it have to be Election Day next November for you to accept that it ain’t going to happen?

17

How many people in America didn’t have health insurance before Obamacare? How many of those will celebrate a return to their previous status? They used to worry about their future, then they didn’t worry so much. Now, they may not have one to worry about! Thanks, President Trump!

The Republicans have loaded up a belt-fed, full-auto shotgun. Are they aiming for their toes or for their instep?

18

That would be a sight to behold.

19

I am positive that he will be indicted. The only question in my mind is whether he’ll be tried as an adult.

20

Are you “positive” it will happen before the 2018 election?