The likelihood of the Senate turning blue in 2018

Politics & Elections
1

If Democrats want to deliver a statement in 2018, the House would be the place to do it because they are almost certainly not going to take the Senate. Democrats will have to defend 23 seats, independents will have to defend 2, and the Republicans have to defend 9. In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats have to gain a net addition of three seats, since any scenario in which the GOP controls at least 50 seats would enable Pence to cast his VP-tiebreaking-vote in the event of a tie.

Hillary-State Democratic Senate seats up for contest (13): California, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Minnesota, Washington, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Hawaii, New Jersey, Virginia

Trump-State (Vulnerable) Democratic Senate seats up for contest (10): Indiana, Montana, Missouri, West Virginia, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida

Independent Senate seats up for contest (2): Vermont, Maine

Hillary-State (Vulnerable) (1): Republican Senate seats up for contest: Nevada

Trump-State Republican Senate seats up for contest (8):
Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee

**2016 Election-Map Scenario: **Republicans win all the Senate races in Trump states and Democrats take all the Senate races in Hillary states (we’ll disregard independent Senators). In that scenario, the Republicans would gain 9 seats and take a 61-37-2 lead in the Senate. This scenario almost certainly wouldn’t unfold, though, as Trump and the GOP will likely be deeply unpopular by November 2018.
Each party takes the other side’s vulnerable seats only: Republicans capture the Democratic seats in South Dakota, Montana, Indiana, West Virginia and Missouri - all deep red states - and Democrats take the Republican seat in Nevada. All other seats remain in the same hands as before. In that scenario, Republicans gain 4 seats and take a 56-42-2 lead in the Senate.
Democratic-Wave Scenario: A tidal wave sweeps Democrats into victory across the board. It’s still highly unlikely the Democrats can take Texas, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Mississippi or Alabama, but they could snag Nevada, Arizona, and hold all of their 23 blue seats. If they snatch an upset win in one of the above mentioned seats as well, this would mean Democrats gain a 51-49 advantage in the Senate(technically 49-49-2, but we could count the two independents as de facto Democrats.) But this would be an extraordinarily slim lead in the Senate. But this, again, requires the Democrats to hold on to each and every single one of their 23 Senate seats being contested, including the vulnerable five of MO-MT-SD-WV-IN, the deep red states.
Republican-Wave Scenario: *Extraordinarily *unlikely, but if there were some unexpected event like a major Islamic terrorist attack (that Democrats were perceived as abetting due to opposing a Muslim ban), or unlikely economic boom, or something that creates a rally-around-the-flag event, we could see momentum behind the GOP’s backs, not the Democrats, and this might enable Republicans to not only defend all nine of their seats, but also take the 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats and some other besides, potentially taking perhaps a 63-35-2 lead.
The only way the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 is if there is a massive tidal wave in their favor that allows them to defend every single one of their 23 seats, ***and ***independents don’t lose to GOP challengers, ***and ***the GOP loses three or more of its nine seats. But even then, that is only a Democratic “majority” by the slimmest of margins, vulnerable to defectors on key-issue votes. And the Democrats losing a race in just one or two of those 23 Blue seats would throw a wrench in all that.

And none of these above scenarios involve independents losing. Bernie Sanders is pretty much invincible in Vermont, assuming he runs again, but Angus King in Maine is vulnerable, although if the Republicans nominate LePage in Maine then they can kiss any prospects of snatching that Maine seat goodbye.
Possible outcome: Democrats take the House but the Republicans run up their lead in the Senate.

2

I can’t argue with this analysis. 2018 is a very difficult Senate map for the Democrats and normally I would say it is impossible, but given the extraordinarily unpopularity of the primate in the White House, I wouldn’t say it’s impossible. If impeachment and/or a recession, then I can see a slim chance.

I think the most likely outcome in two years is President Pence with a Democratic House and razor-thin Republican Senate.

3

I agree that it will be very difficult for Democrats to retake the Senate in 2018, but I also believe that the predictions of a massive increase in the GOP majority are unfounded. For example, I think it is a pretty big stretch to say that PA, MI, WI, OH, & FL are now solid red, which is what many pundits seem to be assuming. The problem for Dems is that every state with an incumbent GOP senate senate that will become open in 2018 is solid red, with the exception of NV. Assuming that Trump’s downward spiral continues, a big factor IMHO which doesn’t seem to be receiving much attention is how many GOP Senate incumbents will end up seeking reelection in 2018 as I predict that being the guy that was willing to take on his own party’s president in the name of sanity will be a popular strategy for GOP candidates in the next election.

4

Both of the independents tend to side with the Democrats, so the Dems are really defending 25 seats.

5

The independents are the lockiest of all locks though. Sanders and King aren’t going anywhere. getting elected as an independent may be tough, but they tend to be extremely popular as incumbents as long as they aren’t loons.

If we’re grading on a point spread, if the Republicans gain five seats or less, that’s a moral victory for Democrats. In a strong GOP year(as in, if Clinton had won the Presidency), they would have had a shot at getting to 60 in 2018. As it is, they’ll settle for 3 or 4 and shoot for 6 or 7.

Winning the Senate is impossible unless the Democrats can defend all their seats, win Nevada and Arizona, and then find someone who can win a very deep red state.

The good news for Democrats is that in 2020 they get to take on what will probably be an unpopular incumbent party and a lovely Senate map for them.

But you know where the most important races are in 2018? The states. Republicans control most of the states and state legislatures, and most of them are up for grabs in 2018, not 2020. If Democrats want redistricting spoils, 2018 is the key election.

6

Depends on the state. It seems in most states, the entire lower chamber is up for grabs every two years, so a banner year in 2020 will at the least make it harder for Rethugs to draw the maps in their favor.

Turnout is everything. With the nation pretty equally divided, until the more conservative oldsters start dying off in greater numbers it is the side that turns out that prevails. The Republican base has for years clamored for an end to Obamacare without knowing what they wanted. They sure as hell don’t want what Paul Ryan delivered. They sure didn’t vote to have the occupant of the White House under FBI investigation. They’re going to say “we voted for Republicans and they didn’t do shit for us. Screw it, we’re staying home.”

7

As a politically active West Virginian, I predict Joe Manchin isn’t going anywhere. I don’t like him, but I have to admit he is perfectly calibrated to this state.

8

What is it with liberals gloating the old will die soon ? Seems to be their favourite meme.
“Tomorrow Belongs To Me !”

9

Oh yeah, 2020 matters, but 2018 is when most of the governors are elected, and in most states redistricting goes into law like anything else- with the executive’s signature. and of course a lot of Senators and some state legislatures with four year terms.

10

He sure is. He’s a moderate who is actually a moderate rather than someone just saying the right things at home and voting with his party in DC. But a lot of those “moderates”, like Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, and Bill Nelson might find out that you can no longer hide your true record in the post-Citizens United age.

Tammy Baldwin and Sherrod Brown are true progressives in swing states. A good recruit can knock them off, and those two would be hitting Democrats where it hurts. The Boston Herald claims Liz Warren is in trouble too, but that would take a hell of a recruit, like Mitt Romney, to even stand a chance. Still, I’d take great pleasure in Democrats losing her.

11

Because she’s a liberal that isn’t afraid to fight?

12

nm

13

Also, the earlier Trump leaves the presidency (if he does,) the better for the GOP in 2018. If he leaves before the end of 2017, he might not even be much of a factor or name to mention by November 2018, when the Pence presidency would be in full swing.

14

Yes, but I think many voters won’t be looking at the map and grading the Democrats on a curve - “The Democrats were expected to lose 7 seats, but they lost only 3, so it’s a moral victory and they overperformed.” They’ll simply see the headline - “GOP picks up 3 seats” - as if Team Red and Team Blue were both defending an equal number of seats - and think that Trumpism got a boost.

15

Part of the game of partisan politics is that it’s better to defeat the candidates the progressive(or arch conservative) wing are most enthusiastic about than to defeat the boring, moderate candidates. It also helps to keep the party divided. If the moderate candidates are winning and the progressive candidates are losing, that keeps the war going. Same applies to us. But if progressives win, or archconservatives win, it tends to end the debate within the party and gets everyone pulling in the same direction.

So yeah, we’d love to knock off Warren, Baldwin, and Brown, and if that meant keeping McCaskill, Tester, and Manchin, that’s all to the good. I can only imagine what the Wall Street faction of the party would say if that was the result.

I’m sure progressives would rather beat Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton than Susan Collins.

16

PfftHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Wipes a tear from eye

No. Just… no. Manchin is a self-serving piece of shit that will change his position five times an hour if it means keeping himself in power. He’s not a moderate, he’s a goddamn weathervane. He just points whichever way the wind blows. The man has no principles whatsoever.

But since most electorates are not uniformly beholden to positions on one side of the political aisle, his spineless weasel nature allows him to mirror the electorate pretty well.

17

I’d rather beat Cruz but Collins’ seat is far easier to get.

18

And the White House staying sick? :smiley:

19

I think its because the “old” contain overwhelming numbers of rancid fascist bigoted scum who have have spent decades despoiling democracy by enabling scummier scum from McCarthy through Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Gingrich, and the current crowd of losers and enriched bottomfeeding scumsuckers like Limbaugh, Beck, Levin, Breitbart, and Coulter, and whoever the right has vomited into the mouth of America this week.

The greatest generation, my ass.

As an elderly white man I hate the feeling that I need to constantly wear a shirt emblazoned with WE’RE NOT ALL LIKE THAT.

Those who are like that can’t die off too soon.

20

In her particular case, not really. When was the last time Maine had an actual Democratic Senator? Snowe and Collins and now King are practically untouchable. King caucuses with the Democrats, so bully for you, but he owes the party nothing and can go rogue on any vote he wants without consequence because they need him more than he needs them.