2 months can feel like 2 years in politics. I think we will get a better idea of how things are trending in early 2018.
I think Democrats will lose 3-5 seats in the senate.
The house is harder to predict. I think the Republicans will maintain the majority here, but by how much I won’t guess.
One problem Democrats always face is low voter turn out in mid term elections. Some of their base needs celebrity appearances, concerts and such rallied around a popular figure running for office, which is almost always happens when the President is up for re-election.
The thing about midterms though is that you don’t need your base. The last few midterm waves haven’t been because of high or low base turnout, but simply because independents went 2-1 for one or the other party. Midterms are when appealing to independents is most vital.
There was a recent story about some guy from El Paso who has big dreams of taking Cruzted’s seat but it really would be a long, long shot. I mean, Cruzted has an unbeatable ace in the hole: “Re-elect me or I will come back to Texas.”
Joaquin Castro is considering trying the race. If Democrats really want to promote the Castro brothers are rising stars, they have to win statewide. There’s just no other way.
I’m 63, so probably not old enough to be in the old-conservative group. Based on the people I know who are older than I though, if Ryan gets his way and tries to mess with Social Security and Medicare, those “rancid fascist bigoted scum” may well start voting Democratic.
I don’t think the Pubs are stupid enough to mess with SS and Medicare, but then I didn’t think they were stupid enough to come up a hot mess like the AHCA after having seven years’ time to come up with something better.